Week 44: ATP Masters 1000 - Paris (Indoor Hard)

steven · Tennis legend

Week 44: ATP Masters 1000 - Paris (Indoor Hard)

Miriambee · Futures level

So does that mean the seeding numbers change and they put in a LL instead of Federer?

Or do they move Djoko to the top, and Murray to the bottom, though the implication of that is that every seed in the draw would have to move?

-- Edited by Miriambee on Sunday 28th of October 2012 06:34:48 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

Not too bad a draw.

I am though a bit worried about Andy will get through the next couple of weeks. Even without his back problem which ( as well as being a possible issue in its own right ) may have restricted him putting in much real work in the last week, I was already concened re how he said he hadn't done too much work between the US Open and Tokyo and that this possibly caught up with him in the Shanghai final. While in many ways that was understandable, to me it was a little disappinting in that I thought he might have been doing absolutely all he could to follow on the US Open with a great end to the season.

steven · Tennis legend

L32: (3) Andy Murray v (WC) Paul-Henri Mathieu (FRA) WR 101 (CH 12 in 2008) or (Q) Roberto Bautista-Agut (ESP) WR 79 (CH 74 in Oct)

PHM & RBA aren't on the OoP for tomorrow, so I assume Andy will play his R2 match on Wednesday.

steven · Tennis legend

After losing the Basel Final to del Po (and with it any chance of finishing the year as no. 1), Fed has pulled out of Paris - good news for Muzz should he make it as far as the semis.

steven · Tennis legend

Miriambee wrote:
So does that mean the seeding numbers change and they put in a LL instead of Federer?
Or do they move Djoko to the top, and Murray to the bottom, though the implication of that is that every seed in the draw would have to move?

If I remember right, the 9th seed moves up into the top seed's slot, the highest-ranked unseeded player into the 9th seed's slot and a lucky loser takes their place. Not 100% certain without checking the rules though.

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

So, assuming Murray stays fit, what are his chances of overtaking Federer in the rankings before the end of the year. I think he would have to win Paris and the WTF, which would be a very tall order at this time of the year.

indiana · Tennis legend

Bob in Spain wrote:
So, assuming Murray stays fit, what are his chances of overtaking Federer in the rankings before the end of the year. I think he would have to win Paris and the WTF, which would be a very tall order at this time of the year.

I do think realistically Andy will need to win both, and would still need Fed not to reach the WTF final or indeed just win all three of his group matches ( since either would take him to a minimum of 10065 points ). He could theoretically do it with winning one and reaching the final of the other, but that would require him both to go through his WTF finals group unbeaten ( 200 points for each group match win, 400 for winning the semi final, 500 for winning the final ) and for Fed not to win a match at the WTF.

Ranking points, taking off last year's Basel, Paris Masters and WTF final points.

Roger : 9465 Andy : 7510

If Andy wins both ( including winning all group WTF matches ) : 7510 + 1000 + 1500 = 10010

If Andy reaches the Paris Masters final and wins the WTF ( again winning all group matches ) = 7510 + 600 + 1500 = 9610

If Andy wins the Paris Masters and reaches the WTF final ( again winning all group matches ) = 7510 + 1000 + 1000 = 9510

Miriambee · Futures level

on the battle for top 4, Steven has Fed as dropping 3000 points. I don't know where they all come from, - just thought is it 2000 for winning WTF and 1000 for winning paris?

This could Fed much lower than just looking at what Andy can gain potentially.

steven · Tennis legend

Miriambee wrote:
on the battle for top 4, Steven has Fed as dropping 3000 points. I don't know where they all come from, - just thought is it 2000 for winning WTF and 1000 for winning paris?
This could Fed much lower than just looking at what Andy can gain potentially.

500 from Basel (it was a week later last year), 1000 from Paris and 1500 from WTF - the latter two always come off before the following year's WTF even if they were played later the previous year.

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

When trying to see how the End of Year rankings might end up, it is probably easier now to look at the Race to London points as that shows what has been earned this year.

As Indiana correctly states above, Fed is currently on 9465 and Andy is on 7510. So basically Andy has to earn approx 2000 more points than Fed over Paris and the WTF. It is unlikely, but with Fed not playing in Paris, if Andy could win there, it would give him an outside chance.

steven · Tennis legend

steven wrote:
Miriambee wrote:
So does that mean the seeding numbers change and they put in a LL instead of Federer?
Or do they move Djoko to the top, and Murray to the bottom, though the implication of that is that every seed in the draw would have to move?
If I remember right, the 9th seed moves up into the top seed's slot, the highest-ranked unseeded player into the 9th seed's slot and a lucky loser takes their place. Not 100% certain without checking the rules though.

I checked the rules after noticing that the lucky loser, Hanescu, had directly replaced Fed in the no. 1 seed position. What I wrote above is correct (rule VII.7.20.E) but it only applies if the order of play for the first day of the main draw has not yet been published, otherwise the lucky loser replaces the withdrawing seed directly. So I assume Monday's OoP must already have been published by the time Fed's withdrawal was confirmed.

indiana · Tennis legend

Just noticed that noone outside the top 4 has won a Masters 1000 since Robin Soderling in Paris 2010 ! I hadn't realised they had had quite that domination in addition to hoovering up the latter Slam spots. Must be about the clearest ( in various ways ) and longest running top 4 there has just about ever been.

Now, with Federer and Nadal mssing and the WTF next week, might this be the time to break that sequence...

-- Edited by indiana on Monday 29th of October 2012 07:03:55 PM

philwrig · Hall of fame

Hoping that he does OK this week without exerting himself too much, next week has to be the priority.

indiana · Tennis legend

Andy sounded in good fettle in an interview with Jonathan Overend for Radio 5 Live.

He said that he felt very fresh, particularly for this time of year and compared to last year at this time. He is looking to do very well in both the next 2 weeks, while not diagreeing that he would like to build for the WTF where he will clearly face good opposition from the start.

Sounds good since to me as I said before I would like to see him give all that he needs to to be successful this week, then let next week take care of itself.