Important for Heather to win this one have not won a singles match since the Olympics, should give her some confidence.

Heather faces Hlavackova in the final qualifying round, after she beat Sema 6-3 7-6.

Singles draw has been pretty kind to all Qualifiers.
Even greater incentive for Heather - and, yes, Hlavackova too unfortunately - to come through her final Q match.

At least 5 of the 7 spots for qualifiers have drawn eminently winnable first round matches. The opponents and likely R2's are:

Paszek » Azarenka
Cornet » Vinci
Ivanovic » Q/U. Radwanska
WC Garcia » Q/Kanepi
Wozniacki » Makarova/Hantuchova
Oprandi » Errani
Lisicki » Sharapova

The toughest would probably be Wozniacki (having a steady week as 1 seed into at least SF in Korea this week) or the reinvigorated Ivanovic. Though both of those have completely flat days where they have been inexplicably and easily beaten.

I'd hope for the Garcia » Kanepi route though. Kaia is back from a long injury in Korea this week, but has made at least QF, but there must still be concerns over fatigue and fitness.

philwrig wrote:

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Wonder what happened at 3-0 in the second set TB, there was a 10 minute delay...

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Heat rule.
The humidity in Tokyo for the past 8 or so hours has been 97-100%
Therefore the temperature doesn't even have to be very high for the conditions to be ruled too oppressive for play. I think the calculation works out at: 100% humidity + 78 degrees F = suspension.
The temperature has been mostly about 74-77F and must have edged over the line.

From *30-15 to *30-40, and broken on that singular BP. Not the most auspicious of starts, but there'll probably be a lot of breaks.

Andrea starts with a double fault - start as you mean to go on

-- Edited by insomniacfolder on Saturday 22nd of September 2012 01:26:01 AM

Good news for Heather is that Andrea is serving at ~90% but she's only able to win ~40% of those points.
If Heather can keep that pressure up it should tell eventually - if she can hold her own serve that is (serving at 50% and winning 50% of those points.)
Andrea gave the break back with a DF of her own.
*2-2

A hold! And to love.

3-2*

Andrea also holds, to 30.

*3-3

Heather seemed to be building a tiny bit of momentum, but now *15-40, and she is broken to 30. Not the most edifying serving match all round so far.

3-4*

Andrea pulls clear by holding in consecutive games. Every stat is very close though, almost identical now, Andrea shading BP chances and convrersions though. 

Feel Heather needs this set badly.

*3-5

A long service struggle for Heather, who saves 2 set points for Andrea, both on 2nd serves; at *30-40, and from deuce 2. A DF means Heather can't close out from deuce 4. The hold eventually comes from deuce 6  - a first ace helping to bring up the decisive advantage. Phew!

4-5*

Andrea serving for the set. Heather has a sniff of a chance at 30-15*... 40-15*. Both BP disappear though, one on a 2nd serve chance. 3rd BP from deuce is a clincher, and Heather breaks back. Very even indeed - not good necessarily, but even.

Now Heather just needs to hold... 

*5-5

Again it's a struggle on the Watson serve, *15-30... *30-40 and broken back pretty immediately. Hard to win matches always having to break back. Must be very frustrating for her.

5-6*

-- Edited by insomniacfolder on Saturday 22nd of September 2012 02:20:28 AM

Or not! Determined it seems not to get too big of a lead, Heather now finds herself at *0-40 and is is broken back to 15 in double quick time. Man, this match is barmy, I think Kundalini got it right - how can you take much confidence even as the winner of a match like this?
Roll the dice, spin the wheel, we'll see what happens next!
*4-1

Andrea holds to 30. This next service game for Heather feels huge, lest she let a big lead slide. She really needs to put this set away.

*4-2

Oh! It's horrible, *0-40, and broken to love. That two break lead gone. Hard to know what to say. Still, back on serve in this set. Gonna need massive mental will and character from Heather now though you feel.

3-4*

-- Edited by insomniacfolder on Saturday 22nd of September 2012 02:57:17 AM

Heather holds to 15, to put the pressure back on Andrea.
1-1*

Now takes a 2nd Break point of game 3 to edge ahead. Good girl. Strong service game called for again though.

*2-1

And, Miss Watson duly delivers a strong hold to 15. We don't want a repeat of the second set though. Keep the lead to the conclusion, please.

3-1*

Andrea not going away. Holds to 30.

*3-2

Another strong service game, holding to 15, including two Aces, one of them to win the game. Will Andrea buckle this time?

4-2*

Maybe... BP at 40-30*... go on! Yes! Gutsy stuff. Nick Bolletieri says: "See it home, baby!" *Ahem*

*5-2

And... it's the now ubiquitous long tactical break for one reason or another called at the critical juncture. For my money, this really doesn't help endear tennis to the casual observer or prospective media outlets, but it's here to stay now - same as meaningless MP hawkeye challenges to deflate the moment - ho hum!

-- Edited by insomniacfolder on Saturday 22nd of September 2012 03:58:14 AM