Week 33 WTA Cincinnati (hard)

tony_orient · ATP qualifying

RE: Week 33 WTA Cincinnati (hard)

murray_2k9 · Challenger qualifying

Tbf to Laura, she hasnt had much time to acclimatise, get over the states and get mentally prepared post-olympics.

Add to that Radwanskas very good form of late (only player to get a decent scoreline against Serena) and its not too bad.

Where next?

philwrig · Hall of fame

insomniacfolder wrote:
Radwanska breaks again to take the macth easily - aided, needless to say, by another DF.

Q2: ROBSON, Laura (GBR) 19 89 lost to RADWANSKA, Urszula (POL) 2 46 3-6 2-6

Right.. Blue Meanie Time...

Laura held just twice in the match.
10 DF's in 9 service games 5 to either bring up a break point or concede the game.

If she continues to serve like this, she's going nowhere. She has a lot of points to defend (160) at the US Open as a Q + L64 last year. If the draw is unkind, and she loses in R128 she'll be back to ranked ~120. If she can't serve - like the last 3 months at least, that may be where she stays for the foreseeable.

Even in her run at Palermo and the smokescreen the Olympics provided, she fluffed ball tosses about 3 times a service game, and DF'ed more than once a service.

Also her first serve is becoming less of a weapon in when it goes in as a consequence - perhaps through taking the pace off to ensure no fault.

-- Edited by insomniacfolder on Sunday 12th of August 2012 07:47:00 PM

If you look at the stats the only difference was the first serve, clearly Laura is taking a bit off the serve in order to not DF. If Laura had served the way she was during the grass court season there would have been nothing between them. Ula is a solid top 50 player in good form and who gives you nothing. I'm not too disheartened, yes a shame she hasn't been able to bulid on her improved recent form, but this was a long match for a 6-3 6-2 scoreline and hopefully this week she can improve her serve a little under the giudance of her new coach. Also if you take 140 points off her ranking total she would only drop to 110ish assuming of course she was to lose at New Haven and the US open.

insomniacfolder · Challenger level

I'm trying to get a public license for Tableau - data visualisation - so everyone can see the picture I have of Laura's supposed good period.

But, to me, her good run has been entirely due to matches in which her opponents have served as terribly as she has. Where an opponent has served even passably, not even well, they have beaten her - because her serve is such a liability at the moment.

It's hard to stack this up against the Palermo results, because it seems counter intuitive - she reached the SF of a 220k, right?

Hopefully I can co-opt a spare development licence and then everyone will be able to see the data in the way I'm currently looking at it and mess around wiht it for themselves.

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

insomniacfolder wrote:
Radwanska breaks again to take the macth easily - aided, needless to say, by another DF.

Q2: ROBSON, Laura (GBR) 19 89 lost to RADWANSKA, Urszula (POL) 2 46 3-6 2-6

Right.. Blue Meanie Time...

Laura held just twice in the match.
10 DF's in 9 service games 5 to either bring up a break point or concede the game.

If she continues to serve like this, she's going nowhere. She has a lot of points to defend (160) at the US Open as a Q + L64 last year. If the draw is unkind, and she loses in R128 she'll be back to ranked ~120. If she can't serve - like the last 3 months at least, that may be where she stays for the foreseeable.

Even in her run at Palermo and the smokescreen the Olympics provided, she fluffed ball tosses about 3 times a service game, and DF'ed more than once a service.

Also her first serve is becoming less of a weapon in when it goes in as a consequence - perhaps through taking the pace off to ensure no fault.

-- Edited by insomniacfolder on Sunday 12th of August 2012 07:47:00 PM

It is weird that she has done well recently despite truly abysmal serving. But having been a Dementieva fan, I know that it is perfectly possible for a player to be ranked inside the top 10 despite a df rate of 25% - 33%. Agree she has a lot of points to defend and is relying on kind draws if she is to even have a chance of ending the year close to her current ranking.

I think she'll storm up the rankings next year regardless of whether they get to grips with the serving problems so long as she doesn't have too many injuries. Personally I think her 2nd serve is too slow and too vulnerable. Going back a few years she had a much faster 2nd serve that wasn't particularly safe but gave her the advantage when it went in. The current version is unreliable and lacks penetration; not a good combination.

Helen40 · Grand Slam Champion

I'm really dissapointed by this, she did so well during the grass court season/Olympics. I thought she'd turned the corner, and now she's back where she was before it

Only hope her new coach can get her head right ref her serving, so she can shoot up like we all know she has the ability to.

murray_2k9 · Challenger qualifying

Laura didnt lose to a random journeywoman though, she lost to a talented player who, like Laura, was a top junior (#1 / won jr wimbledon) and is also on the rise.

I appreciate what you're saying about her serve though and hopefully she can sort that.

Helen40 · Grand Slam Champion

I appreciate that, my thoughts/comments are more about Laura's game/serve than the fact she lost. She lost to Sharapova, but didn't play badly - so that for me was OK, if a little dissappointing that she lost her way at the start of the second set.

murray_2k9 · Challenger qualifying

I suspect as Laura adjusts to a higher standard of play she is aware of the need to improve her serve and shes going through a slight re-adjustment stage atm.

It would be unrealistic of us to expect her to have no kinks in her game and be a polished top 50 player straight away, but I agree she needs to improve her serve. Fingers crossed the new coach knows how to do that.

insomniacfolder · Challenger level

Just to clarify, in no way do I wish or mean to do Laura down.

As is often true with me, I have expressed things clumsily.

Following is a very dull and lengthy exposition...

My main point is that I think there is verisimilitude to Laura's recent run, and that it is being mis-interpreted as 'good'.

I think I can show, that there has been a strange coincidence of matches where opponents have served markedly poorly enough against her that her own deficiencies on serve have been covered up, and allowing her, ever improving, all round matchplay and game to see her through.

However when an opponent has given even a median serving performance against her in her 'good' run, she has always lost that match.

The opponent doesn't even need to objectively serve well, just competently. This can even happen part way through the match, as with the SF in Palermo, and the R1 matches in Bastad, and Wimbledon, and in part throughout the XD in the Olympics - those notorious 2nd sets!

If the opponent stops serving awfully Laura has always lost. Largely because her ability to break back to cover up her own service losses - fuelled by so many double faults and fluffed ball tosses - disappears.

Laura's own serving through that period has been bad enough to warrant her losing more matches had her opponents not also strangely contrived to under perform even her low service standards for long stretches.

The compensation to this as several have noted is, possibly, to ease off on the first serve in order to get more first serves in.

Indeed it has been noticeable how the 1st serve % in Laura's matches climbs from very low (~25%) throughout these matches.

However, as the 1st serve % rises, her points won on 1st serve % actually decreases - every time. Opponents are easily dealing with the lessened serving, and putting routine and constant pressure on Laura's serve. Which has led to more and more DF's in pressure points.

Since, and including, Wimbledon, I make it at least 14 games handed over with A DF; and at least 9 more DF's that presented a break point to her opponent.

That's making matches very hard to come through playing players of Urszula's quality, let alone the top 32 - unless that is they also serve woefully and help you in kind.

The point about defending ranking points is probably somewhat separate. However, Laura will make main draw this year and so the 60 points from qualifying would have to be covered in the main draw - that would mean getting to the last 32.

Unless the draw is exceedingly kind, and/or her opponents continue to bizarrely serve appallingly against her - Laura's own service problems are going to make it nigh on impossible to thus defend her points. Beating those players is hard enough without giving them a de facto 2 game advantage every match for free.

If they sort the serve out she's got every chance, as she can increasingly trade rallies with most players most of the time.

I wish her, and all our players, always, every luck - and skill.

I'll shut up now!

tony_orient · ATP qualifying

I think you are being very harsh on Laura by stating her recent run is only down to opponents serving badly. Laura had beaten 4 top 50 players over the past couple of months, and of the two matches I watched (Vinci and Safarova) I don't think her opponents served particularly badly, and Laura was broken only twice in each match, so it's not like she's been winning matches with more breaks than holds (which does happen sometimes in the womens game). Laura also played some really good tennis in both those matches.

I also think that given Laura has just finished the Olympics which was a massive tournament for her, it's not that surprising that her performance level wasn't great in the next tournament, but she wasn't favourite to beat Radwanska so it's hardly a terrible loss. It was also her first hardcourt tournament in several months as well, so she can be forgiven one disappointing result.

Ending the year in the 100 will be a good target for Laura given the points she has to defend, and I think it will be close.

philwrig · Hall of fame

The main reason why Laura has had better results lately is due to far better footwork. She has looked far lighter on her feet, which has made it easier for her to get into position to hit a far more consistent heavier ball. She actually served exceptionally well during the grass court season, 70% 1st serves and 80% points won on first serve. It was only during the latter part of the Palermo tournament, and matches subsequent to that that the serve has become an issue. She was under immense pressure during the MD at the Olympics knowing she had to hold serve with Andy's being so solid. When under pressure the serve becomes more of an issue.
Laura's game relies on that 1-2 punch, big first serve followed by an easy putaway. Taking pace off the first serve is not a good plan when you're playing somebody as good as Ula, as she will just treat it as a second serve. You also have to consider the fact that with a new elite coach on the sidelines she would feel under additional pressure to impress him. Her current form will see her still be a top100 player by the end of the year unless she has a run of shocking draws, she only has to gain 200 points between now and the end of the season to do so.
Lets see what New Haven brings before getting too concerned.

Spectator · All-time great

A view from outside (Matt Cronin @tennisreporters):

Just saw Robson lose to Ula Radwanska. Lots of work for Krajan to do with Laura: BH vulnerable, FH sporadic & footwork when nervous is lousy

Not having seen anything other than her Olympics matches recently, I couldn't comment. (And of course Cronin is commenting on the basis of one match, too ... hardly a good sample size!) But I don't think Cronin is saying she doesn't have potential to be a very fine player ... just that she needs to do some work. Presumably she recognises that, too, which is why she's hired a new coach!

Given that she's the youngest person in the top 100 (hurrah!), she has some space ....

SMC1809 · All-time great

I wonder if Laura signed in for a LL spot. Ivanovic has withdrawn and Laura is third in the queue, assuming they've all signed in.

Miriambee · Futures level

2 lucky losers in, neither of them Laura, Tatashvili for Ivanovich and Timea Babos for unused performance bye (If I've read it right!).