Week 24 - Wimbledon Men's Qualifying

DavidC · Tennis legend

Week 24 - Wimbledon Men's Qualifying

johnnylad · Tennis legend

Thanks Steven - I think it's Jon Cornish that I saw and it must be a WC for Wimbledon Juriors ?Qualifying.

Could well be Cornish. Is Ash Hewitt still playing junior slams as I believe he is highly rated by the LTA. Might be too old now though

-- Edited by johnnylad on Wednesday 15th of June 2011 07:21:33 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

johnnylad wrote:

Thanks Steven - I think it's Jon Cornish that I saw and it must be a WC for Wimbledon Juriors ?Qualifying.

Could well be Cornish. Is Ash Hewitt still playing junior slams as I believe he is highly rated by the LTA. Might be too old now though

-- Edited by johnnylad on Wednesday 15th of June 2011 07:21:33 PM

Ashley was born in 1992 so is a big boy now.

Ratty · County player

No Brit has qualified for Wimbledon singles in the last 3 years. There have been about 45 who have tried.

If you had asked the question in June 2009: "To give a better than 50% chance of every single Brit out of 45 failing to qualify in the next 3 years, what is the likelihood of each individual in isolation failing to qualify?"

The answer is about 98.5%. (I think - this is fairly advanced probability calculation for me - 0.985 to the power of 45 = .507)

Scary stuff?

tony_orient · ATP qualifying

Ratty wrote:
No Brit has qualified for Wimbledon singles in the last 3 years. There have been about 45 who have tried.

If you had asked the question in June 2009: "To give a better than 50% chance of every single Brit out of 45 failing to qualify in the next 3 years, what is the likelihood of each individual in isolation failing to qualify?"

The answer is about 98.5%. (I think - this is fairly advanced probability calculation for me - 0.985 to the power of 45 = .507)

Scary stuff?

98.5% chance of not qualifying approximates to an average of a 25% chance of winning each match.

I don't think this is that surprising given that any players good enough to have a decent chance of qualifying are given a wildcard into the main draw. In the womens qualifying this year there were several players who would have been considered a much less than 25% chance of winning even the first round.

Ratty · County player

Well yes, and of course the chance of any player qualifying is only 1 in 8 (12.5%), so the average player is 87.5% likely not to qualify.

That still makes the Brit 8 times less likely (1.5% against 12.5%) to qualify than the average entrant.

Or something like that ...

indiana · Tennis legend

Of course in the time period we have been considering, NO Brits have qualified.

Ratty initially just calculated ( absolutely correctly ) the approximate average individual figure that overall gave just over a 50% chance of noone qualifying, and thus get an understanding as to what has been the apparent maximum average individual chance.

But maybe there wasn't even close to being a 50% chance of getting a qualifier over this time. That then reduces the average individual Brit's 1.5% chance still further.

Anyway, what all this says re arguements about the number of British WCs ( MD + Q ) given out is indeed well err arguable smile But I would argue that it sure doesn't stengthen the case that more should be given out.

Ratty · County player

Well, ta for your expert input, I think that I was fumbling my way towards the opinion in your final sentence.

Shhh · Challenger level

Random stat. Only 2 of the top 16 seeds won through qualies.

indiana · Tennis legend

Shhh wrote:
Random stat. Only 2 of the top 16 seeds won through qualies.

Interesting one. But in thinking about it. I'd say maybe not hugely surprisng in that we are taling about 3 rounds of matches in a big field with very little comparative spread in rankings ( or probably big spread in talent ) compared to a normal tournament.

I'd be surprised ( haven't checked at all ) if there are often very many of the top seeds that do qualify. Though I wold expect normally more than just 2 ( which would be the random expectation if all were equal )

-- Edited by indiana on Sunday 19th of June 2011 01:05:12 PM