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Post Info TOPIC: Week 20 - Futures F3 ($10K) - Bastad, Sweden - Clay


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RE: Week 20 - Futures F3 ($10K) - Bastad, Sweden - Clay


I'd be amazed if someone has played the exact same 1st round and 2nd round opponent in the same location in consecutive weeks, odds of that happening must be outrageous

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The Magician Santoro wrote:

I'd be amazed if someone has played the exact same 1st round and 2nd round opponent in the same location in consecutive weeks, odds of that happening must be outrageous


Not that outrageous - if you get two Futures in the same location in successive weeks, the entry lists are likely to be very similar. Simplifying this by assuming the same 32 players (and the same seeds) in the main draw each week, the chance of a seed (i.e. Dan) meeting the same unseeded R1 opponent as last week are 1/24 and the chance of his R2 opponent from last week being in the corresponding non-seed v non-seed R1 match in the draw are 1/12. So the chance of meeting the same R1 and R2 opponents in those same rounds is less than 1 in 288 (less because the entry lists aren't identical and because it is not certain that the players who need to meet in R2 will win their R1 matches), but it's not incredibly low.



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The Magician Santoro wrote:

I'd be amazed if someone has played the exact same 1st round and 2nd round opponent in the same location in consecutive weeks, odds of that happening must be outrageous


 

Ha ha, see that Steven has beaten me to it since I got diverted and am waffling on more, though essentially I agree with his basic odds with one small adjustment.

Very interesting one.  I actually guess if it occurs in consecutive weeks it's relatively much more likely to occur at the same location with such as successive futures   -  i.e.  probably similar standard field with many of the same players again.

Looking at the specific case here and starting from the position that Dan, Orno and Reinwein are around both weeks, that Dan is seeded both weeks and the other two clearly are not and that Reinwein wins his R1 match then the odds are :

1 / 276   ( i.e.  1/ 24 ( draws Orno in R1 ) x 2 / 23 ( Reinwein takes up one of the other two spots in Dan's eighth of the draw )   =  0.3623 %   

My remaining stuff is more speculative / guesswork re the chances of the two required R2 opponents winning R1 again and re the differences in the fields :

You might want to half that for Reinwein winning R1 again so actually makes the R2 meeting ( though theoretically I suppose a random non seed that won his R1 one week has probably more than a 50% chance of being a R1 winner the following week )  giving us  1 / 552  or 0.1812 %

What were the chances of Dan ( the seed ) winning his R1 match again to also be in position for the R2 match ?   Guesswork here.  Say 70% would then give you a running figure of  1 / 789  or  0.1268 %  

So  1 / 789  is about the maximum chance of a specific seeded player drawing the same two opponents ( who are assumed both to be non seeds again ), based on some assumptions re winning R1 chances and very importantly assuming all 3 players are together again in the second week ( there's not much of a chance if they're not ! ) 

Once you actually reduce further for the chance that at least one would have scarpered even from a consecutive event in the same place, then the chances are certainly less than 1 in a 1000 but not ridiculously high where events are at the same place. I make it that 6 of the seeds and 13 of the others ( incl WCs and QFRs ) making 19 in total are in both the Sweden F2 and F3 fields of 32.



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Dan *3-2 up first set.

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Dan broken and now trails *3-4. Now that didn't happen last week.



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Dan into a first set tie-break...

Which he wins 7-3.



-- Edited by SMC1809 on Wednesday 18th of May 2011 09:31:20 AM

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R2: (4) Dan Smethurst (GBR) WR 486 beat Sami Reinwein (GER) WR 681 7-6(3) 6-3 smile



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QF: (4) Dan Smethurst (GBR) WR 486 vs. (Q) Patrik Rosenholm (SWE) WR 742

Got to be a good chance for Dan to reach another semi-final

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   Wardy's T100 KO's 

09: Crivoi 87  

10: Ram 93 , F.Lopez 30 , Schuettler 72, Kamke 85, Russell 80

11:  Wawrinka 14, Querrey 26, Mannarino 54 

12: Andujar 36

13: Tursunov 67

 

 



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Dan has just taken the first set 6-2.



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And takes the 2nd 6-3 smile.gif

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QF: (4) Dan Smethurst (GBR) WR 486 beat (Q) Patrik Rosenholm (SWE) WR 742 6-2 6-3 smile



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That will be Dan's 5th Futures semi of the year so far. smile.gif

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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!

GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html



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Well done Dan S! Quietly putting together a very solid campaign this year, hope to see him moving up the rankings again soon

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Yes, he's going to back in the top 450 after RG (6 points to add next Monday,then the 6 from this week with 3 coming off on 6 June) and after that, he only has 1 point to defend between now and September, 9 between now and when his Czech Republic finalist points come off in late November. So if he has a good summer, he could shoot up the rankings.

Having said that, because he is reasonable on clay, he has an 'un-British' tendency of picking up more points in the first five months of the year than in the last seven, if I remember right.

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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!

GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html

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