Weeks 12/13 - WTA Premier Mandatory ($4.5 M) - Miami, USA

Spectator · All-time great

RE: Weeks 12/13 - WTA Premier Mandatory ($4.5 M) - Miami, USA

philwrig · Hall of fame

I'd say Bally has had an Ok year, I suppose it depends on what your expectations are. It would be interesting to know what the total number of ranking points accumulated by the top 25 GB girls is this year to date compared to last. I think Bally herself would be disappointed if she wasn't able to compete consistently at this level. Yes it was a much better scoreline this time around and all credit to her for that, but last year she beat Li Na twice so we should expect/ hope for similar wins/performances. Bally is in the twilight of her career and needs to maximise these next couple of years and with Nino's help I'm sure she will. I thinks shes losts a couple of yards of pace on her first serve, following her service redesign , which is hurting her at the moment.

steven · Tennis legend

2010 start of week 12 GB top 25 ordered by points scored in 2010 to the end of week 12

Elena Baltacha 592
Anne Keothavong 176
Katie O'Brien 125
Anna Smith 81
Naomi Cavaday 73
Georgie Stoop 68 - no longer in the GB top 25
Heather Watson 43
Naomi Broady 40
Laura Robson 40
Melanie South 28
Johanna Konta 16
Amanda Carreras 10
Emily Webley-Smith 10
Tara Moore 10
Danielle Brown 9 - no longer in the GB top 25
Jade Windley 4
Jocelyn Rae 3
Jade Curtis 1 - no longer in the GB top 25
Nicola George 1
Amanda Elliott 1
Sarah Borwell 1 - no longer in the GB top 25
Lisa Whybourn 0
Elizabeth Thomas 0 - no longer in the GB top 25
Anna Fitzpatrick 0
Katharina Brown 0 - - no longer in the GB top 25
Samantha Vickers 0

2011 start of week 12 GB top 25 ordered by points scored in 2011 to the end of week 12 (hopefully Mel still has more points to add)

Elena Baltacha 269 (-323)
Heather Watson 265 (+222)
Anne Keothavong 260 (+84)
Naomi Broady 84 (+44)
Katie O'Brien 71 (-54)
Emily Webley-Smith 62 (+52)
Lisa Whybourn 22 (+22)
Melanie South 18 (-10)
Anna Fitzpatrick 18 (+18)
Tara Moore 15 (+5)
Lucy Brown 13 (+13)
Johanna Konta 11 (-5)
Jade Windley 11 (+7)
Nicola George 10 (+9)
Laura Robson 8 (-32)
Jocelyn Rae 8 (+5)
Samantha Murray 7 (new)
Amanda Carreras 1 (-9)
Alexandra Walker 1 (new)
Naomi Cavaday 0 (-73)
Anna Smith 0 (-81)
Jennifer Allan 0 (new)
Nicola Slater 0 (new, i.e. not in the GB top 25 this time last year)
Samantha Vickers 0 (=)
Francesca Stephenson 0 (new)
Amanda Elliott 0 (-1)

-- Edited by steven on Thursday 24th of March 2011 07:45:46 PM

steven · Tennis legend

I just added the changes in points scored in the first 12 weeks to the latter (2011) list and flagged those in the 2010 list who are no longer in the GB top 25.

indiana · Tennis legend

I couldn't resist either Steven. I wasn't giving quite as many figures but you saved me anyway. What I had calculated was that of the 25 players actually in the top 25 table ( plus Jo Konta ) after week 12, the 2010 total was 1332 points, and 2011 ( with Mel still going ) is 1154 points. I've just reconfirmed the same totals, adding your lists smile

So, the bare figure is 178 less points have been earned by these in the top 25 table in 2011 compared to 2010. Also, there is a bit more depth in 2010 after each table having 3 over 100 points and 6 over 50 points. But there are a few things going on both ways.

Elena herself more than makes the difference, because decent enough as her start has been this year, it was tremendous last year.

The 4th, 5th and 6th from last year have all been out this year ( Georgie long term ). Of these Anne S certainly last year did very well against expectations in this period.

This year obviously has a huge boost from Heather's great improvement ( Laura has basically been out almost all of both periods though she did get in the Aussie Open last year )

This year, outside the top 3, I'd say Ems and certainly initially Naomi B have had good starts to the year.

I think it is good to just list it all as you have Steven, since it is then all open to interpretion and possibly different interpretations. I am not myself sure that this year has been that bad, obviously we always hope for more. Anyway, just about a quarter of the year gone.

-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 24th of March 2011 08:22:18 PM

philwrig · Hall of fame

Thanks for the info Steven, when I say bad it is probably an overreaction, I think you are always trying to improve so in that context it is below par. As Indy has said the three that stand out are Emily, Naomi and Heather as doing better than expected. I suppose its like supporting a football team who maybe finished in the top 8 last year but are now just midtable. Injuries haven't helped and if those that are get back fit we may have a stellar second half to the year. My assessment is also influenced by the fact we tend to start the year well, fade and then finish the year well. I think we are in a transition phase between an older generation represented by Bally and Anne and obviously Heather and Laura.

indiana · Tennis legend

Re Bally, I have had a look in more detail at her wins and losses this year and last year.

This year to date she has won 6 & lost 7and last year she had won 22 and lost 6.

However 10 of these wins were in qualifying matches and 5 more when winning the Midland 100K where she faced one player in the top 100 ( Hradecka WR 64 )

Getting through an extra round at the Australian Open ( beating Bondarenko WR 32 ) and Indian Wells ( beating Li Na WR 10 ) plus winning Midland 100K and good qualifying points from IW and Miami have largely underscored her having had considerably more points at this stage last year.

This year, as against two top 50 players beaten ( and Li Na and Bondarenko ) she has beaten one, Vinci WR 37 in IW. But has had to play more top 50 players, including every 2nd round she has had ( she beat Vinci in the 1st round in IW )

A breakdown of her wins and losses as regards where her opponents were ranked :

2010 : Top 50 Won 2 Lost 3 Outside top 50 Won 20 Lost 3

2011 : Top 50 Won 1 Lost 7 Outside top 50 Won 5 Lost 0

So basically, with all her qualifiers and slightly better draws she has had a lot more matches and wins, particularly to lower ranked players.

Last year she had losses to Olaru, Dokic and Molik, WRS 72, 58 and 138 respectively by this time. This year so far the lowest ranked player she has lost to is Shuai Peng WR 40 in Pattaya.

So, yes while it would have been good to have a big ranking win such as Li Na, and she has had a few more opportunities to have a go at top 50 players this year, she has not actually lost to a player ranked outside the top 50 ( top 40 actually ) and has beaten Vinci WR 37.

Hopefully Bally will get one or two big wins in the coming months and / or draws will open up for her more, but she's not doing too badly.

steven · Tennis legend

Your analysis matches the impression I was getting, i.e. yes she hasn't had a really big win like the one against Li Na last year (I see Li lost to Johanna Larsson in Miami, so this is clearly the time of year to get her) but I wasn't getting the impression Elena was playing any worse than last year - the opposite, if anything.

It just shows you how important the luck of the draw and the big points available in qualifying in the women's events are to your ranking when you aren't ranked high enough to be seeded at the level you're playing at.

philwrig · Hall of fame

Are we saying that she was marginally over ranked this time last year due to kinder draws ?
Also she chose to play Dubai/Qatar rather than the much easier Midland/Memphis tournaments this year.
Added to that she didn't play Auckland due to illness. In my humble opinion, could be wide of the mark, last year was all about getting the highest ranking possible, and because she cracked the top 50 (matching Annie K) she has put less emphasis on that goal this year, just playing all the top tournaments with all the best players and seeing where that takes her ranking wise. It will probably even out during the second half of the year which was not as strong as her first half last year. So I predict she will have a higher ranking at the end of this year than she has now ( injuries permitting of course). One last thing I would add is that she has probably lost a fraction of the confidence she had this time last year due to the fact she was winning more matches, but playing wise she is basicially on par with last year.

indiana · Tennis legend

As Spectator said earlier, Bally nowadays does seem to have a really good knack of winning the matches she should.

Even last year those early season losses to Olaru and Dokic were when she was still ranked in the 80s so were to higher ranked players at the time. So Molik must be the only match in the first 3 months of either year that she has lost to a lower ranked player. Right enough, she made a pretty good job of losing that one Every other loss she has had in either period have been to top 40 ranked players.

While the great thing will be to turn over more higher ranked players, she has had some quite tightly contested contests this year ( i.e. to Peng, Pennetta and to an extent this last meeting with Zakopalova ).

philwrig · Hall of fame

If I remember rightly Molik was on fire that week playing more like her old self.

indiana · Tennis legend

No Phil, I wouldn't particularly say Bally was overranked last year. She got her ranking down from the 80s to the 50s over this period with a very good record. Yes, some slightly easier draws and certainly tournament choice, but that's a pretty good record I outlined for 2010 that looks fairly commesurate with how she improved her ranking. She maybe got up to that ranking a bit quicker, i.e at the end of these 3 months, by the way the points worked out but I do think it was a ranking that actually reflected what her level of tennis had risen to.

I do definitely agree that she has gone for tougher options this year as she seeks to be all she can be and compete with the best. As you suggest having ultimately broken the top 50 she is maybe rather less concerned with her ranking as such. However, with the way things have worked out ( and particularly points earned this year as against points last year without doing a hell of a lot wrong ) she has dropped in the rankings now to 85, and it is more that I would say that ranking this year leaves her considerably underranked against her abilities and results.

She to my mind had become a player of around top 50s abilty last year and is still at least about as good.

-- Edited by indiana on Friday 25th of March 2011 03:54:06 PM

philwrig · Hall of fame

My thought on a fair ranking for her right now would be somewhere in the mid 60s.
The one thing about Bally as well is that she is very consistent, which ranking wise can be a hindrance.
Some players can be hot for one week and win a tournament, accumulating a hefty number of ranking points, but then lose four first rounds in a row. Bally though never loses to players ranked below her but on the flipside struggles to beat the higher ranked players, its horses for courses I suppose.