Week 11 - ITF ($100+HK) - Nassau, Bahamas Hard

DavidC · Tennis legend

RE: Week 11 - ITF ($100+HK) - Nassau, Bahamas Hard

RBBOT · Futures qualifying

To work out if its true simply calculate if "%1st serve in" x "%point won on 1st serve" > "%2nd serve won"

If you apply this to the final stages of the Australian open:

Match	Player	%1st in	%1st won	Result	%2nd won	Won Match	Better Strategy
Final	Kim Clijsters	65	66	42.9	40	Yes	Yes
	Li Na	72	52	37.44	41
Semi	Wozniaki	64	57	36.48	46
	Li Na	64	66	42.24	36	Yes	Yes
	Kim Clijsters	63	77	48.51	56	Yes
	Zvonareva	65	68	44.2	28		Yes
Quarters	Radwanska	83	50	41.5	57
	Kim Clijsters	65.7	65.9	43.3	43.5	Yes
	Kvitova	60	48	28.8	32
	Zvonareva	59	70	41.3	48	Yes
	Schavone	56	57	31.92	42
	Wozniaki	67	63	42.21	46	Yes
	Petkovic	73	49	35.77	40
	Li Na	65	74	48.1	56	Yes

So assuming that the probabilty of serving a fault when hitting a 2nd serve at 1st serve speed is the same as hitting a 1st serve at 1st serve speed, there were only 3 / 14 occasions where a player would have been better off, and only once was it the losing player. Of course, that assumption is wrong - the added pressure on the 2nd serve would reduce the change of it going in.

-- Edited by RBBOT on Friday 18th of March 2011 07:48:42 PM