2011 GB Men and Women Singles Predictions Competition

RBBOT · Futures qualifying

RE: 2011 GB Men and Women Singles Predictions Competition

indiana · Tennis legend

RBBOT wrote:
A suggestion for next year: run this until the WTA/ATP finals instead of until December - I suspect we are going to know who has won by then as most of the players included in the competition will have ceased entering events by then. The current date hardly makes the last few weeks nail-biting.

Good point. I had really wanted to make it pretty much the calender year end, but tied up before Christmas / New Year, hence December 19th.

But as you say, it is unlikely there will be many matches at all ( even none ) from these players in the last month. Maybe Cox and Milton might be dashing about a bit trying to recover lost ground.

Were big changes May to July and even bigger July to late September, so certainly expect quite a lot more by November although Phil has a good lead at present in front.

Hmm, I could just not do another update at all until the final December one so unless folk have done all the sums themselves, they will have no idea. I think what I'll actually do is one final intermediate one at the end of October so at least still leaves all November and any December ranking changes to effect the final table in December.

PS : I guess the 20 bonus points for getting dead on could effect things with one or two people losing bonus points and others gaining them as rankings fluctuate just slightly in the last few weeks.

-- Edited by indiana on Friday 30th of September 2011 06:21:24 PM

Maza1987 · Challenger level

I must've been the only player not to move between the last two updayes:( Still in that darn 8th position.

philwrig · Hall of fame

There's a long way to go, but very content with the current standings.
Need to get the women's only prediction updated as well.

indiana · Tennis legend

OK, here was the October 31st rankings until muggins when editing this post for the final December 19th rankings managed to totally edit out the October 31st rankings from the thread ashamed

From memory it went

( 1) philwrig FAR AHEAD
- 29. the rest of us

-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 20th of December 2011 01:00:36 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

Updated table of Year Start Ranking, our average prediction, our high and low prediction, and the May 2nd, July 4th, September 26th and October 31st rankings :. . .

	Start	AverageP	HighP	LowP	May2nd	July4th	Sep26th	Oct31st
James Ward	201	155	114	205	218	187	155	157
Alex Bogdanovic	292	215	125	350	361	403	325	303
Dan Cox	327	261	200	340	280	271	353	366
Dan Evans	363	264	180	350	284	312	343	329
Jamie Baker	367	290	220	450	365	328	272	279
Josh Milton	389	341	250	450	343	310	381	378
Elena Baltacha	55	67	40	89	91	58	64	50
Anne Keothavong	121	96	55	150	107	94	96	83
Heather Watson	176	105	65	150	122	106	87	89
Katie O'Brien	179	198	130	300	225	218	333	359
Laura Robson	217	130	88	170	269	185	146	133

steven · Tennis legend

Apart from those with Dan in their name (including BogDANovic), Katie (where we have a good excuse) and to some extent Bally (where we couldn't really have foreseen that she'd avoid seeds in R1 of all four slams but still didn't predict too badly), it looks like collectively we have got a lot closer than we usually do ... which given our tendency to be over-optimistic, must mean it has been a decent year!

philwrig · Hall of fame

What's the prize for winning this competition again ? ;)

Maza1987 · Challenger level

^An e-pat on the back. aww

indiana · Tennis legend

Final tables of Year Start Ranking, our average prediction, our high and low prediction, and the May 2nd, July 4th, September 26th, October 31st and December 19th rankings :. .

	Start	AverageP	HighP	LowP	May2nd	July4th	Sep26th	Oct31st	Dec19th
James Ward	201	155	114	205	218	187	155	157	162
Alex Bogdanovic	292	215	125	350	361	403	325	303	314
Dan Cox	327	261	200	340	280	271	353	366	401
Dan Evans	363	264	180	350	284	312	343	329	343
Jamie Baker	367	290	220	450	365	328	272	279	241
Josh Milton	389	341	250	450	343	310	381	378	383
Elena Baltacha	55	67	40	89	91	58	64	50	51
Anne Keothavong	121	96	55	150	107	94	96	83	72
Heather Watson	176	105	65	150	122	106	87	89	92
Katie O'Brien	179	198	130	300	225	218	333	359	354
Laura Robson	217	130	88	170	269	185	146	133	132

indiana · Tennis legend

The December 19th rankings have been added to the table above.

The two biggest movements have been 30 plus movements for :

1) Dan Cox dropped 35 places from WR 366 to WR 401 - this has no effect really apart from just making everyone 35 worse off ( lowest prediction for Dan was WR 340 )

2) Jamie Baker improved 38 places from WR 279 to WR 241 - this has improved some folks' scores by 38, made more scores worse by 38, and some inbetween.

The net result of Jamie's movement and some other smaller moves and a 20 point bonus for an exact prediction by one of the leaders has resulted in quite a few movements in the final table and for it to be much tighter at the very top than in the October 31st penultimate table.

But it's now late and so the final table can wait until after the new day dawns .....

SMC1809 · All-time great

I think I've managed to hit the nail on the head for the third time this year.

indiana · Tennis legend

OK, I tried my best to introduce a bit of uncertainty, and yes the gap at the top of the table has closed quite a bit.

SMC1809 has indeed hit the nail on the head ( with Heather, the only person to get a prediction exactly right thus getting a 20 point bonus ), and was also on the right side of Jamie's movement. Jamie's upward move also helped Silver's late surge up the rankings.

Ultimately your winner though, and still by a pretty clear margin, is PHILWRIG Congratulations.

The final table ( note 5th and 25th are actually ties ) with previous October rankings in brackets is as follows :

( 1) philwrig 493
( 4) SMC1809 539
( 2) indiana 559
(11) Silver 579
( 9) kaseldop 609
( 5) Sandman 609
( 3) Reeltime 614
( 7) seagull 616
(13) Miriambee 620
(10) Smidster 629
( 6) Shhh 635
( 8) The Knight 644
(16) RobH 656
(12) Maza1987 666
(17) johnnylad 673
(14) alex03maccy 695
(15) RBBOT 696
(20) Vandenburg 710
(18) HossTheBoss 735
(24) gazzpash 757
(19) LordBrownof 772
(21) Count Zero 789
(22) airsmashers 806
(23) Josh 814
(27) goldfish 835
(25) steven 835
(26) freerider 847
(28) murray2k9 858
(29) British is Best 950

-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 21st of December 2011 02:01:37 AM

philwrig · Hall of fame

I wish I could say it was 100% skill and 0% luck which gained me the 1st place, but sadly its probably the other way around.

indiana · Tennis legend

A bump back up for the final results and congratulations to Phil again.

Just to say also that I am not intendng doing a competition along the lines of this one for 2012, so if anyone else wants to go for it feel free smile

I am quite intrigued how the British top 20 men will look at the end of 2012, particularly with the teenagers already infltrating the lower ranks of the top 20. So have been thinking a bit about a competition re that, probably basing it on end of November 2012 rankings.

My thinking was a basic points award for predicting a player will be in the GB top 20, with a sliding scale as to how close you get to their GB ranking, plus additional points awards for getting close to their world ranking.

It won't take too much encouragement for me to go for it, with maybe any suggested variation, with closing date after Week 1 of the 2012 tennis year.

-- Edited by indiana on Saturday 31st of December 2011 03:06:51 AM