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Post Info TOPIC: 2011 GB Men and Women Singles Predictions Competition
Maza1987


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RE: 2011 GB Men and Women Singles Predictions Competition
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i see a couple people predicted heather at 150 by the end of the year in the predictions comp. but she'll already be inside that in the 2nd week of jan

injury and illness permitting she could go close to top 100 by end of year:)

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indiana


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In general predictions about where the women's rankings would be at the end of last year Heather in particular and Laura were generally underestimated.

It as if, going against the general grain of often over optimism that we have re the GB players, we are maybe in general a bit loath to predict too much from the young guns.

Early signs are that both have hit the ground running this year, well Heather's damn well sprinting !!  And they may rise quite a bit more than almost anyone has predicted.

Here's hoping anyway  smile

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RBBOT


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How about a Q2 update?

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indiana


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OK,  I'll do an update at the beginning of May.  Then after Wimbledon, and then more regularly thereafter.



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indiana


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As promised, the leaderboard based on the May 2nd rankings. 

I have not counted Naomi Cavaday predictions given she has retired.  If in the unlikely event she returns soon and looks like she may participate in at least 15 tournaments I will include her again.

Smidster and SMC1809's figures include 20 point bonuses for being currently bang on the mark re Heather's 122 ranking and Katie's 225 ranking respectively.

Our leader, Reeltime, at the moment has a very helpful first and last prediction.  Everyone has predicted that James Ward will end up higher than his current 218 ranking, but Reeltime was least optimistic with 205.  Similarly for Laura, ranked 269 ( with clear mitigating factors ) with an equal lowest 170 prediction.  Like all the players, Laura will need to play 15 tournaments for her prediction figs to be used in the final count.  She's currently counting a pretty big score, to varying degrees, for everyone.

  1. Reeltime            438
  2. Smidster           461
  3. alex03maccy     463
  4. RBBOT               483
  5. Vandenburg      512
  6. kaseldop           528
  7. Sandman          529
  8. SMC1809          545
  9. Miriambee         548
  10. philwrig             551
  11. indiana              556
  12. Maza1987         560
  13. HossTHeBoss    621
  14. Shhh                 632
  15. LordBrownof     670
  16. The Knight        680
  17. Silver                697
  18. Count Zero       725
  19. RobH                737  
  20. seagull             746
  21. Josh                 750
  22. steven             753   
  23. freerider           781
  24. goldfish            789
  25. johnnylad         809
  26. gazzpash         813
  27. airsmashers     814
  28. murray 2k9       978
  29. British is Best  1100 


-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 3rd of May 2011 04:40:14 PM

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indiana


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For info, I have set out here the Year Start Ranking, our average prediction, our high and low prediction, and the latest May 2nd rankings. As already indicated, Naomi Cavaday's data is just for info as she is not cvurrently being included for the predictions calculations.
Start AverageP HighP LowP May2nd
James Ward 201 155 114 205 218
Alex Bogdanovic 292 215 125 350 361
Dan Cox 327 261 200 340 280
Dan Evans 363 264 180 350 284
Jamie Baker 367 290 220 450 365
Josh Milton 389 341 250 450 343
Elena Baltacha 55 67 40 89 91
Anne Keothavong 121 96 55 150 107
Heather Watson 176 105 65 150 122
Katie O'Brien 179 198 130 300 225
Naomi Cavaday 198 192 145 300 231
Laura Robson 217 130 88 170 269


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indiana


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On the May 2nd rankings, in respect of every siingle player, a majority of us ( unanimous in 4 cases ) have predicted a higher end of year ranking than their current ranking.  Optimistic lot !  Or time them players got a move on !

Josh Milton's split is the closest ( 15 - 14 ) and is also the closest to having our average prediction match his current ranking ( 341 against 343 ).  Again in respect of every single player, our average end of year prediction is higher than their current ranking  ( Elena and Katie were the only two that started the year ranked higher than our average end of year prediction ).

So Josh is very close ( although he relatively has a lot to defend later in the year to at least hold his position ), but it would be nice to see someone ( or really someones ! ) get their ranking above our average prediction.   I'd say other than Josh ( in the short term at least ) Evo and Heather may be the best bets for this.

James  :   29 predict higher than current ranking,  0 lower

Alex  :   29 - 0

Dan C  :   22 - 7

Dan E  :   17 - 12

Jamie  :   26 - 3

Josh  :   15 - 14

Elena  :   29 - 0

Anne :  20 - 9

Heather  :   21 - 7   ( 1 currently bang on )

Katie  :  22 - 6   ( 1 currently bang on )

Laura  :  29 - 0



-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 3rd of May 2011 04:47:32 PM

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indiana


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Latest leaderboard based on the July 4th rankings.

Again, please note, Naomi Cavaday predictions are excluded from the count.

This time we have one bonus of 20 points taken off totals, LordBrownof with his current exact prediction of WR 310 for Josh Milton.

There is one player on the men's side and one on the women's side currently lower ranked than anyone's prediction and generally contributing big scores, namely Boggo on the men's side - current WR 403 and Laura on the women's side - current WR 185, both of course with some degree of mitigating circumstances and hopefully their rankings will improve. Laura has of course already made a start on that.

Interestingly with regards to these 2 players our 2 leaders have quite different profiles for their scoring.  Sandman has clearly the best score of anyone for all players excluding these 2, his split is 211 from Boggo and Laura / only 125 from everyone else.  Vandenburg is closest of anyone re Boggo & Laura's current rankings, his split being just 68 from Boggo and Laura / 299 from everyone else.

Positions with previous positions from May 2nd in brackets,  Been quite a lot of changes in the 2 months.  In general the players' rankings have improved in these 2 months, which with our optimistic nature has generally improved the overall scores :

  1.  ( 7)  Sandman                336
  2.  ( 5)  Vandenburg           367
  3.  ( 4)  RBBOT                    378
  4.  ( 2)  Smidster                 410
  5.  (11) indiana                   429
  6.  ( 1)  Reeltime                 435
  7.  (10) philwrig                  446
  8.  (12) Maza1987              447
  9.  ( 3)  alex03maccy          470  
  10.  ( 6)  kaseldop                475
  11.  (15) LordBrownof          491
  12.  (13) HossTheBoss         492
  13.  (17) Silver                      494
  14.  (14) Shhh                      535
  15.  ( 9)  Miriambee              573
  16.  (20) seagull                   579
  17.  (16) The Knight              597
  18.  ( 8)  SMC1809                602
  19.  (22) steven                    604
  20.  (19) RobH                      609
  21.  (27) airsmashers           621
  22.  (24) goldfish                  636
  23.  (21) Josh                       657
  24.  (26) gazzpash               684
  25.  (18) Count Zero            700
  26.  (23) freerider                 752
  27.  (25) johnnylad               766
  28.  (28) murray 2k9             785
  29.  (29) British is Best          877    


-- Edited by indiana on Monday 4th of July 2011 11:28:20 PM

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indiana


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Updated table of Year Start Ranking, our average prediction, our high and low predictions, and the May 2nd and July 4th rankings : . .
Start AverageP HighP LowP May2nd July4th
James Ward 201 155 114 205 218 187
Alex Bogdanovic 292 215 125 350 361 403
Dan Cox 327 261 200 340 280 271
Dan Evans 363 264 180 350 284 312
Jamie Baker 367 290 220 450 365 328
Josh Milton 389 341 250 450 343 310
Elena Baltacha 55 67 40 89 91 58
Anne Keothavong 121 96 55 150 107 94
Heather Watson 176 105 65 150 122 106
Katie O'Brien 179 198 130 300 225 218
Laura Robson 217 130 88 170 269 185


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indiana


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Just giving the predictions thread a bump, now that it had fallen off the first page, in case anyone who wanted to know missed the post Wimbledon update. 



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indiana


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Just a few things re the predictions competition.

I will update the current positions again before the end of September.

Re Katie O'Brien's retiral, she has played in 17 tournaments this year, so unlike Naomi Cavaday she has played the minimum 15 that I specified for end of year inclusion so she will count.  Her 123 points for this year currently point to an end of year ranking of about WR 360, so those who have gone for the worst rankings for her will clearly make gains here.

With Naomi Cavaday excluded, the only other player yet to reach 15 tournaments is Laura with the US Open being no 12.  She will continue to be included on the assumption that she is going to reach 15.



-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 14th of September 2011 03:23:15 PM

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indiana


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Latest leaderboard based on the September 26th rankings.

Again, please note, Naomi Cavaday predictions are not included, but Katie O'Brien's are included since she competed in more than 15 events this year before her retirement.

Big changes since last time with our 2 leaders having fallen down into a fairly congested midtable and philwrig having moved up from 7th into a very clear lead. These movements are largely due to getting on the wrong end and the right end respectively of some of the big movements in the men's rankings. Over half philwrig's 387 total is made up of Katie ( 138 ) and Boggo ( 70 ) with for the other 9 players his currently greatest margin out for any of them being 36 places. Impressive stuff.

This time we have two bonuses of 20 points for currently exact predictions, SMC1809 with 96th for Anne K and Josh with 64th for Bally.

The latest table with previous July rankings in brackets is as follows. Much change from July so who knows how much it will yet change again :

  1. ( 7)  philwrig               387
  2. ( 5)  indiana                456
  3. (18) SMC1809             457
  4. ( 6)  Reeltime              504
  5. (10) kaseldop             504
  6. (17) The Knight           510
  7. (13) Silver                   529
  8. ( 8)  Maza1987           540
  9. (14) Shhh                   542
  10. ( 4)  Smidster             543
  11. (15) Miriambee           552
  12. ( 3)  RBBOT                 561
  13. ( 9)  alex03maccy       563
  14. ( 1)  Sandman             567
  15. ( 2)  Vandenburg        570
  16. (16) seagull                586
  17. (20) RobH                   598
  18. (27) johnnylad            615
  19. (12) HossTheBoss      665
  20. (25) Count Zero         667
  21. (11) LordBrownof       678
  22. (24) gazzpash            693
  23. (23) Josh                    708
  24. (19) steven                739
  25. (21) airsmashers       740
  26. (26) freerider             789
  27. (22) goldfish              795
  28. (28) murray 2k9         868
  29. (29) British is Best     960               

 



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indiana


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Updated table of Year Start Ranking, our average prediction, our high and low prediction, and the May 2nd, July 4th and September 26th rankings :. . .
Start AverageP HighP LowP May2nd July4th Sep26th
James Ward 201 155 114 205 218 187 155
Alex Bogdanovic 292 215 125 350 361 403 325
Dan Cox 327 261 200 340 280 271 353
Dan Evans 363 264 180 350 284 312 343
Jamie Baker 367 290 220 450 365 328 272
Josh Milton 389 341 250 450 343 310 381
Elena Baltacha 55 67 40 89 91 58 64
Anne Keothavong 121 96 55 150 107 94 96
Heather Watson 176 105 65 150 122 106 87
Katie O'Brien 179 198 130 300 225 218 333
Laura Robson 217 130 88 170 269 185 146


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RBBOT


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The women (still playing) seem to be doing a lot better against their average prediction than the men.


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indiana


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Bump back up for the latest prediction scores, based on current rankings.

philwrig has a pretty big 69 point lead, but the guy in 2nd place for starters still has hopes  smile



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