2011 GB Men and Women Singles Predictions Competition

steven · Tennis legend

RE: 2011 GB Men and Women Singles Predictions Competition

indiana · Tennis legend

Thanks very much Shhh for producing that table of averages.

To me, it looks as if we are generally less optimistic than before with hopefully not too unrealstic hopes of big rises for Heather and Laura. Maybe more folk actually want to win the thing this year ( checks that someone hasn't edited in that I am offering some big / any prize smile

)

Generally in the past, I think the collective wisdom of our crowd has more homed in towards an average of our various optimism levels than any likely true accuracy.

Anyay, four days to go until the tennis starts again, hurrah biggrin

so please get those new entries in or existing entrants fine tune your entry by then.

SMC1809 · All-time great

Qualifying starts on Saturday, so not even 4 days to go. The Q draw should be available early tomorrow morning UK time. I'm guessing with only 2 days of qualifying, both Hev and Katie will be in action on Saturday.

indiana · Tennis legend

Good point. Re the competition, though, having said more than once that I will accept entries until Monday, that is still the case.

Silver · County player

MS : James Ward 185
MS : Alex Bogdanovic 290
MS : Dan Cox 260
MS : Dan Evans 350
MS : Jamie Baker 220
MS : Josh Milton 330
WS : Elena Baltacha 60
WS : Anne Keothavong 95
WS : Heather Watson 70
WS : Katie O'Brien 130
Ws : Naomi Cavaday 180
WS : Laura Robson 110

Oh and long time no post ^__^

RBBOT · Futures qualifying

MS : James Ward 170
MS : Alex Bogdanovic 340
MS : Dan Cox 230
MS : Dan Evans 330
MS : Jamie Baker 400
MS : Josh Milton 320
WS : Elena Baltacha 70
WS : Anne Keothavong 125
WS : Heather Watson 65
WS : Katie O'Brien 200
WS : Naomi Cavaday 145
WS : Laura Robson 130

steven · Tennis legend

MS : James Ward 145
MS : Alex Bogdanovic 170
MS : Dan Cox 260
MS : Dan Evans 350
MS : Jamie Baker 400
MS : Josh Milton 290
WS : Elena Baltacha 40
WS : Anne Keothavong 110
WS : Heather Watson 90
WS : Katie O'Brien 140
WS : Naomi Cavaday 180
WS : Laura Robson 125

I can't help feeling I've been wildly over-optimistic here overall, but going back through, I find it hard to find reasons to be more pessimistic about any of the predictions individually. Of course, these all assume no (or very limited) injuries, and that's unlikely to be the case.

HossTheBoss · Strong Club Player

MS : James Ward 170
MS : Alex Bogdanovic 240
MS : Dan Cox 260
MS : Dan Evans 199
MS : Jamie Baker 300
MS : Josh Milton 320
WS : Elena Baltacha 75
WS : Anne Keothavong 80
WS : Heather Watson 110
WS : Katie O'Brien 200
Ws : Naomi Cavaday 230
WS : Laura Robson 90

indiana · Tennis legend

Thanks folk. 29 entries in all :

	James	Alex	DanC	DanE	Jamie	Josh	Elena	Anne	Heather	Katie	Naomi	Laura
indiana	160	220	270	350	320	360	75	105	95	195	160	125
Maza1987	185	250	270	333	320	450	80	150	105	205	180	155
alex03maccy	160	280	250	290	350	420	80	120	150	200	200	150
freerider	140	180	250	200	450	320	70	80	150	300	200	120
LordBrownof	140	195	235	250	320	310	75	80	78	201	192	111
airsmashers	135	160	245	250	290	300	55	75	78	160	180	103
johnnylad	115	170	310	201	244	420	43	120	119	250	300	154
The Knight	135	215	245	195	310	380	60	110	100	280	170	145
Count Zero	145	125	225	200	275	350	75	105	125	250	185	135
RobH	136	190	235	290	220	350	65	95	80	210	235	88
seagull	152	182	307	280	237	287	62	83	89	198	245	96
Miriambee	173	240	298	215	240	356	89	125	135	240	230	160
Reeltime	205	290	210	305	352	360	76	86	145	300	201	170
kaseldop	146	188	275	291	252	342	86	108	103	215	179	147
philwrig	190	255	340	325	305	375	75	100	110	195	205	110
British is Best	130	150	200	180	220	250	45	70	80	150	160	120
Josh	184	137	239	215	286	372	64	88	117	142	212	129
Sandman	182	260	254	277	301	304	56	74	105	206	170	117
Vandenburg	114	350	240	275	260	288	81	95	105	175	180	170
gazzpash	140	220	300	185	240	290	68	110	85	130	195	130
Shhh	145	190	300	295	290	355	55	95	125	160	155	115
murray 2k9	115	160	240	259	220	300	48	55	70	130	150	90
Smidster	173	246	249	295	325	412	81	76	122	207	182	158
goldfish	169	157	253	221	240	289	62	84	138	140	165	155
SMC1809	154	172	310	250	222	375	72	96	92	225	188	156
Silver	185	290	260	350	220	330	60	95	70	130	180	110
RBBOT	170	340	230	330	400	320	70	125	65	200	145	130
steven	145	170	260	350	400	290	40	110	90	140	180	125
HossTheBoss	170	240	260	199	300	320	75	80	110	200	230	90

indiana · Tennis legend

I have set out here each player's current ranking, our average prediction and our high and low prediction. Our average prediction for all 6 men is quite a bit higher than their current ranking - hmm. For the women, 4 of the 6 we have on average predicted higher than their current ranking ( including not surprisingly Heather and Laura ) The only players overall we have on average to fall during the year are Elena and Katie, one I suspect just because last year was so good and the other due to general concerns re her form.

	Current	Average	High	Low
James Ward	201	155	114	205
Alex Bogdanovic	292	215	125	350
Dan Cox	327	261	200	340
Dan Evans	363	264	180	350
Jamie Baker	367	290	220	450
Josh Milton	389	341	250	450
Elena Baltacha	55	67	40	89
Anne Keothavong	121	96	55	150
Heather Watson	176	105	65	150
Katie O'Brien	179	198	130	300
Naomi Cavaday	198	192	145	300
Laura Robson	217	130	88	170

Fitzy · Intermediate Club Player

sorry people think your forgetting me on these lists here?! ha

Count Zero · Tennis legend

still looking at that doesn't look like we will have another top 100 player if even our most optimistic put Ward outside the top 100.

PS i know i said 125 for Boggo but i still believe he can crack the top 100 this year, i just didn't want to jinx it

indiana · Tennis legend

Fitzy wrote:

sorry people think your forgetting me on these lists here?! ha

Darn, sorry. I wish you had pointed this out earlier smile

freerider · Futures level

Fitzy wrote:

sorry people think your forgetting me on these lists here?! ha

what is your prediction for yourself?

indiana · Tennis legend

OK, time we had the first leaderboard.

What you say, is he mad ?! We haven't yet completed the first week of the year.

Ah ha, what I thought I'd do is produce a list showing the predictions as against the current rankings.. So, it's not really the case that any are better than others. Just these at the top of the list have predicted closest to the current rankings and these at the bottom predicted furthest away from the current rankings so are looking for big movements during the year.

I wonder how much the final leaderboard come December will correlate with this list.

Anyway, I will let things have a chance to move over the first half of the year before I produce the first list that allows for ranking moves this year.

1	alex03maccy	393
2	philwrig	412
3	Reeltime	483
4	Maza1987	484
5	Smidster	513
6	indiana	522
7	Shhh	585
8	RBBOT	602
9	Silver	615
10	Sandman	635
11	Miriambee	646
12	steven	651
13	kaseldop	687
14	SMC1809	699
15	Vandenburg	720
16	Josh	746
17	The Knight	752
18	HossTheBoss	757
19	LordBrownof	782
20	seagull	813
21	gazzpash	818
22	goldfish	826
23	airsmashers	834
24	johnnylad	847
24	RobH	847
26	freerider	867
27	Count Zero	872
28	murray 2k9	1048
29	British is Best	1130