If they basically get full play, I'd be confident that Australia will be all out by tea and starting 137 behind on 238 f 4 they would at best likely only to have a small lead by then.  If England get an early breakthrough I could see the Aussies being out much earlier.

So with the latest weather it looks an England victory to me.

Adelaide is a very good track but when it begins to deteriorate at the end of a match it has some history of really going.  Swann can play a vital part.

North can score big particularly when he comes in on a good score but basically I'm not convinced he's who you want in a tight corner.  Yes, Hussey and Haddin have proved what form they are in but get a couple of wickets and the tail looks long from no 8, no bowler in theory approaching the danger Mitchell Johnson might have caused battingwise.

I'd be more confident with a fully fit Broad ( not sure what the latest is on his strain or whatever ) since he has bowled very well without much luck, but I am still pretty confident overall.

It's a considered view, but don't blame me if it turns out to be very wrong  

Actually I see Harris as more of a threat than Johnson with the bat. Besides Johnson being in woeful form (6 ducks in his last 12 innings), he is a leftie, so Swann has a good chance against him.

And Harris can bat a bit going by his record - although I've never seen a single long innings of his (only T20s) , I admit. Good player, that man. He holds a British passport and nearly decided to play for England when he signed for Sussex, but it wasn't to be.



Broad out of the Ashes according to Cricinfo. Huge blow.

Losing Broady is a huge blow, could be crucial today as well.

Katich out, too.


Has to be Tremlett now as Australia will probably pick Hughes.

HUUUUGE wicket.


I think you can get an idea about the weather from this - http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR642.loop.shtml#skip