Shanghai Masters 2010 Pickem Competition

steven · Tennis legend

RE: Shanghai Masters 2010 Pickem Competition

steven · Tennis legend

2010 SHANGHAI MASTERS BOTB - DAY 4 'SYNDICATED' REPORT

Wednesday was above all the day when having done any research was the kiss of death for your chances, or that's how it seemed from here.

No less than 22 matches were completed (some outdoors, though generally under the Stadium Court roof, and many indoors), 7 in R1 and 15 in R2, with 7 players having to play twice - they W 3 L 4 in R2, though in 2 R2 matches both players were taking to the court for the second time in the day.

The once reliable Cilic failed miserably yet again, taking just 4 games off 4% pick Seppi (who went on to beat Lu in R2, where he was a 3% pick), while just one entrant foresaw the recently reliable Youzhny going down to Mayer and nobody foresaw the defending champion's R2 loss to Zverev or another qualifier, Chardy, getting through to R3, though he did it at the expense of another upset merchant, 8% pick Dolgo. Similarly, 4% pick Monaco despatched Verdasco's conqueror TdB.

A surprisingly large 9% picked Duckboy's loss to GGL, though they probably did not expect it to be by retirement when Roddick was a set up.

In the big swing matches of the day, 58% pick Melzer beat Fish's lucky loser DGT, 23% pick Dammit got revenge over le Monf after beating Gulbis easily in R1, and 51% pick Tsonga seems to have managed to brush away the cobwebs that were evident in his loss to Nieminen in Tokyo last week (his first event since Wimbledon), taking out 39% pick Querrey today.

Detailed results can be found at http://www.freewebs.com/britishtennis/competitions.html and they are being updated regularly each day, with 'headlines' and the odd 'quote of the day' appearing on http://twitter.com/botb1 as well.

TEAMS

New team the Bangors won R2 and moved up 1 to 1st place, nearly a full point ahead of the Gasquetaires, up 4 to 2nd, whose dire early part of the day was spectacularly rescued by their hero repaying the faith all but one of them had in him by getting revenge over his compatriot for his recent defeat.

The latter, who pushed day 3 leaders Rusedski.co.uk down to 3rd place, were the equal fastest climbers together with ATP DCC, up 4 to 4th, and GBTG, up 4 to 7th.

The biggest fallers of the day were Tennisopolis, down 5 to 8th, while MTF have now passed the lanterne rouge back to TAT.

INDIVIDUALS

Londoner Bkk (IN) won both the day (by 2 points with 26/37) and R2 (with 11/16 correct) outright to move up 49 places to 1st and now leads by a point from Johnny (GB), up 11 to 2nd, who was one of just four entrants who managed to score 24 points on day 3.

One point further back after getting 22/37 are LadyTigress (IN), Durbschick (CC) & Agi (DC), all up 2 to 3=. 2010 AO winner JGS (IN) is further point back in 6, just ahead (on tiebreak) of 12 other entrants in 7=, who include day 3 leader Busy Lizzie (ML), down 6 after only just getting more than 50% on day 3 with 19/37.

ON THE RISE

Two of the other entrants who got 24/37 on Wednesday moved up 97 to 19= - drewziph (BA) and Jojo56 (RG), who is fresh from winning the US Open! However, the last of them was the biggest riser of the day, MICHAEL (JM) jumping 131 places to 48=.

DODGY DROPPERS

The lowest scorer of the day with just 12/37 was Ryzim (DF), down 45 to 219th, just ahead of the lanterne rouge, Xknowledge (RF), who is now the only entrant left in the gorillas' cage.

However, the biggest faller of the day was BillBaker (TN), down 154 to 204= after getting 15/37.

THURSDAY

At the end of R2, nobody has all of their R3 winners still standing but 16 people have 7 quarter-finalists still alive. Of them only Johnny (GB) in 2nd and Arab (RF) & Steve (BA) in 7= are in the top 10 and Alien (CC) is currently down in 200=!

THURSDAY OoP WITH PICK %s

SC1: (4) Muzza 94% v (Q) Chardy 0% (nobody)
GC1: (7) Berdbrain 44% v GGL 1% - Duckboy 51% was the fav
SC2: (2) Nole 93% v Gasquet 4%
GC2: (12) Tsonga 20% v Mayer 0% (nobody) - Youzhny 69% was the fav
SC3: (1) Rafa 97% v (13) Melzer 0% (nobody)
GC3: (5) Söd 68% v (11) Ferrer 29% - the biggest swing match
SC4: (3) Fed 98% v Seppi 0% (nobody)
GC4: Monaco 1% v (Q) Zverev 0% (nobody) - Kolya 62% was the fav

I have never seen so many 0% (0)'s in a line-up like this, but it does mean that they will achieve perfect damage limitation for people who picked against the favourites (or picked favourites who have already gone out) if they come through!

eblunt · Club Coach

Oh for goodness sake. My one ray of sunshine in rd3 was having 44% pick Berdbrain, and I'd mentally already added on the points since he couldn't possibly lose to GGL .. or could he ?

SMC1809 · All-time great

Do these players not know that we're playing a very serious game. First Fish is the one that got away. Next Duckboy swans off after winning the first set, and now Berdy takes flight.

eblunt · Club Coach

SMC1809 wrote:

Do these players not know that we're playing a very serious game. First Fish is the one that got away. Next Duckboy swans off after winning the first set, and now Berdy takes flight.

LOL, QOTD contender there. I'm a bit upset my "Verdasco fiasco" didn't catch on though.

And now Rafa 4-1 down in the first set as well. Would love Melzer to win win that one, would give me some good Pre-damage-limited picks for later on ....

Update : you beauty Melzer. That's a losing pick for me, but it makes an even bigger mess of lot of people's selections.

-- Edited by eblunt on Thursday 14th of October 2010 01:11:30 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

Steven in brilliant rant form on twitter re Tsonga winning and Nadal losing smile

Particularly like the accusatory question to the 20% who picked Tsonga to reach the QFs.

Hunch, mate

indiana · Tennis legend

Anyway I've been sucked back in smile

Muzza winning   tick

Djokovic winning   tick

Berdych losing tick

Tsonga winning tick

Sod winning tick

Monaco winning   couldn't care

Nadal losing tick ( if Monaco wasn't going to do it )

Fed winning tick

I'm sure this ruddy game is just playing with me, dragging me back in just to have it's wicked way, no doubt tomorrow

steven · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:

Steven in brilliant rant form on twitter re Tsonga winning and Nadal losing

Particularly like the accusatory question to the 20% who picked Tsonga to reach the QFs.

Hunch, mate

The Rafa bit was definitely a rant - I haven't checked to see how many rabid fans I lost as followers with that, but no doubt it was a few! wink

Re. JWT though, I was genuinely interested whether I'd missed something (after all, the 20% did get it right!) or whether people had picked him based on previous successes in the autumn and forgotten/not known about this summer/last week. The deafening silence suggests the latter, I have to say. biggrin

steven · Tennis legend

2010 SHANGHAI MASTERS BOTB - DAY 5 'SYNDICATED' REPORT

It's always tough to make a head over heart pick for a player you do not really want to win a tournament, but when they then go and crash out anyway (meaning both of last year's finalists have gone out before the QFs, of course), repeating Gasquet's nickname ten times and having a rant on Twitter is about the only way to go! Rafa, how did you you manage to turn into a muppet without me noticing?

A big win for Melzer, then, who became the third player (and the first not to be a qualifier) to go a round further than anyone had predicted this week. This meant the loss of the tournament winner pick for 43% of us when we probably least expected it and the first quarter is now completely dead from a BOTB point of view.

However, 20% pick Tsonga's continuing rise from the ashes of the summer (and last week) and 68% pick Söd's win over 29% pick Ferrer had the biggest immediate effects on the results, while 1% pick GGL's unlikely win over 44% pick Berdbrain was the best display of damage limitation, particularly for the 51% of us who had gone for Duckboy.

Detailed results can be found at http://www.freewebs.com/britishtennis/competitions.html and they are being updated regularly each day, with 'headlines' and the odd 'quote of the day' appearing on http://twitter.com/botb1 as well.

TEAMS

New team the Bangors won their second round in a row by quite a distance and are now nearly 2 points clear with all of their entrants in the top 100 and 2/3rds of them in the top 25!

Rusedski.co.uk, up 1 to 2nd and Team CC, up 2 to 3rd, lead the chase, but the three fastest risers of the day were GBTG, up 3 to 4th, MTL, up 3 to 6th, and JM.org, up 3 to 8th.

The only fallers were ATP DCC, down 5 to 9th, and the Gasquetaires, who plummeted 9 places from 2nd to 11th after their hero lost but are still closer to 2nd placed team GR than GR are to the leaders! TAT are still last by just under 3/4 of a point.

INDIVIDUALS

One of the 27 joint winners of R3, Johnny (GB), up 1 to 1st, is the new leader by 1 point after former leader Londoner Bkk (IN) had a bit of a nightmare (3/8) and dropped out of the top 20. LadyTigress (IN), up 1 to 2nd, is 1 point behind, with Steve (BA), up 4 to 3rd on tiebreak, and drewziph (BA), up 15 to 4th, both a further point back.

Also moving up into the top 10 are JAMES4578 (JM), x5daisy (RF) & jmc116 (IN), all up 22 to 5=, together with motobass (TA) & Craiky (BA), both up 47 to 10=.

The only entrants who managed to stay in the top 10 without getting 5/8 correct in R3 were Durbschick (CC) and Agi (DC), both down 5 to 8=.

ON THE RISE

None of the entrants who got 5/8 correct managed a three-figure rise, but Borovnia (TY) & Bryan (IN), both up 94 to 47=, Hawkeye (AM) &doublelix (AR), both up 85 to 65=, and risers of the day indiana (BT), mysterX (TA) & Mom of Twins (IN), all up 97 to 67, got very close.

I mentioned yesterday that Alien (CC) was the lowest-placed entrant who had 7 QF-ists still alive and she did end up being the lowest-placed entrant who got 5/8 in R3, rising 75 places to 125th as a result, while a 75 place rise for CharlotteK (BA) saw her break into the top 100 - just - in 99th.

DODGY DROPPERS

The lowest scorer of the day with just 1/8 was Querrey-to-win picker Ryzim (DF), who stayed in 2nd last but is now only ahead of lanterne rouge Xknowledge (RF), who got 2/8, on tiebreak. They are both 5 points behind the entrant in 3rd last but have now escaped the gorillas, albeit by only 0.25 points!

However, the biggest fallers of the day were 2/8 scorers who led their teams' slide down the teams table - sengale (RG), down 129 to 177th, and Bowl (DC), down 129 to 186th.

FRIDAY

With the top quarter dead, none of us have all four of our semi-finalists still standing, but more than half of us have three, including all but one of the top 10 and AllyB (JM) all the way down in 4th from last.

However, the current top four all have Rafa as their winner. The top entrants with other winners who are still in the tournament are JAMES4578 (JM) in 5= with Nole, x5daisy (RF) in 5= with Fed, JamieL (AM) in 13= with Tsonga, Robmeister33 (AM) in 32= with Muzza and Vladan (ND) in 146= with Söderling.

FRIDAY OoP WITH PICK %s

SC1: (4) Muzza 74% v (12) Tsonga 5% - Youzhny 17%, Baggy 1%, Mugro 1%, Querrey 1%, Radek/Dolgo 1 pick each
SC2: (2) Nole 82% v GGL 0% (Bryan (IN) in 47=) - Duckboy 7%, Berdbrain 6%, Dammit 3%, Monfils 1%
SC3: (13) Melzer 0% (nobody) v Monaco 0% (nobody) - Rafa 93%, Kolya 4%, DGT 2%, Verdy 1%
SC4: (3) Fed 86% v Söderling 10% - Pics 2%, Isner/Llodra 1 pick each

The large group of entrants who have the top four reaching the semis with Rafa to win the title may be wondering whether to hope for upsets in the bottom half now Rafa is out, in particular to stop Fed winning the title, but I think the best hope for them is for the Fed and Nole to win today but the eventual winner to come from the top half - which realistically means cheering over the next two days for whichever of Muzza and Tsonga you think is most likely to be able to take out Fed or Nole in the Final.

indiana · Tennis legend

steven wrote:

indiana wrote:

Steven in brilliant rant form on twitter re Tsonga winning and Nadal losing

Particularly like the accusatory question to the 20% who picked Tsonga to reach the QFs.

Hunch, mate
The Rafa bit was definitely a rant - I haven't checked to see how many rabid fans I lost as followers with that, but no doubt it was a few!

Re. JWT though, I was genuinely interested whether I'd missed something (after all, the 20% did get it right!) or whether people had picked him based on previous successes in the autumn and forgotten/not known about this summer/last week. The deafening silence suggests the latter, I have to say.

Yeah, but how many went further and were absolutely daft enough to predict Tsonga would beat Muzza in the QFs, which he wasn't close to. Ah ....oops

Re Rafa well I was right to go against him, and did query his 3rd tournament in a row. But the rather annoying thing is I don't really gain anything over just having gone with Rafa, well at least unless and until Djokovic wins the final, since that other muppet Davydenko hasn't been in place to take advantage.

-- Edited by indiana on Friday 15th of October 2010 08:59:49 AM

steven · Tennis legend

2010 SHANGHAI MASTERS BOTB - DAY 6 'SYNDICATED' REPORT

A rare 'predictable' day today saw the remainder of the top four win convincingly, while Mónaco won the dead match. Over 100 of us equal top scored with 3/4 correct, but with about half the entrants failing to get all three of Muzza 74%, Nole 82% and Fed 86% correct, there was a fair bit of movement in the results tables.

Detailed results can be found at http://www.freewebs.com/britishtennis/competitions.html and they are being updated regularly each day, with 'headlines' and the odd 'quote of the day' appearing on http://twitter.com/botb1 as well.

TEAMS

New team the Bangors still lead but they came 2nd last in the QF round and their lead has been cut from nearly 2 points to 0.63, though that is still a decent gap.

Team CC, up 1 to 2nd, and QF round winners GBTG, up 1 to 3rd, both overtook Rusedski.co.uk, who dropped 2 to 4th after an average round. MTL, up 1 to 5th after finishing 2nd in the QF round, complete the top 5 but the only team that moved up more than one place was JM.org, up 2 to 6th.

AM.com would be expected to benefit from Muzza winning when he is 'only' a 74% pick, but their Fed-aversion seems to have more than cancelled out any benefit from Andy's win because they plummeted after the last match, ending the day down 5 in 10th.

However, the lowest scorers of the day were the Gasquetaires, down 3 to 14th, where they now hold the lanterne rouge.

INDIVIDUALS

Johnny (GB) now leads by 2 after yesterday's lead chaser LadyTigress (IN) got just 2/4 correct and dropped 5 places to 7th. drewziph (BA), up 2 to 2nd (and now leading the top team after being last in that team a few days ago), is the new lead chaser after his team-mate Steve (BA) got just 1/4 and fell 73 to 76th, though both of the top two have already lost their tournament winner.

Lead Nole-to-win picker JAMES4578 (JM) & lead Fed-to-win picker x5daisy (RF) both rose 2 to 3=. Like them and the new top two, Fed-to-win pickers Craiky (BA), up 5 to 5th, and JGS (IN), up 6 to 6th, both got 3/4 correct on Friday, as did Rafa-to-win pickers Austin (AM) & rg.bedwell (BA), both up 5 to 8=.

End of R2 leader Londoner Bkk (IN), up 11 to 10th, is back in the top 10 after a big fall yesterday but he has picked Rafa to win too. The top Muzza-to-win pickers are Robmeister33 (AM) and greatunclebulgaria (JM), both up 15 to 17=.

ON THE RISE

Of the well over 100 entrants who got 3/4 correct, just one managed a 50-place rise - that was Alien (CC), up 50 to 75th, completing a 125-place rise from 200th over the last two days.

DODGY DROPPERS

The biggest fallers of the day were the two entrants who drew a complete blank in the QFs - JamieL (AM), down 177 to 190th, and a.m.p (BA), down 148 to 203rd.

Querrey-to-win picker Ryzim (DF) is now in last place despite getting one semi-finalist correct because long-time lanterne rouge XKnowledge (RF) got two, and their positions will only reverse again if Nole wins tomorrow.

SATURDAY OoP WITH PICK %s

SC2: (4) Muzza 20% v Mónaco 0% (nobody) - Rafa 73%, Youzhny 3%, Kolya 2%, 6 others with 1 pick each
SC3: (3) Fed 49% v (2) Nole 43% - Söd 4%, Berdbrain 3%, Duckboy 1%, Dammit 1%

Ultimate winner picks: Fed 25%, Nole 20%, Muzza 8%

As you can see, the second semi is the biggest swing match of the whole tournament, while anyone who picked Rafa to win could do with Fed and Nole having a titanic battle and being unable to recover in time for the Final!

WINNER POSSIBILITIES

I have never known so many teams and individuals to be in with a chance of a top 3 finish going into the semis, so for now I will just list possible winners.

MTL will win the teams comp if Nole wins the title, the Feddies will win if Fed does, Team CC will win if Pico beats Fed in the Final and current leaders the Bangors will win if Muzza wins or if Pico beats Nole.

If the winner comes from the bottom half of the draw, x5daisy (RF) will win the individual if Fed wins the title, The Man from Onken (IN) will win if Nole beats Muzza in the Final, while JAMES4578 (AM) will win if Nole beats Pico.

If the winner comes from the top half of the draw, current leader Johnny (GB) will win if Pico beats Fed, drewziph (BA) will win if Pico beats Nole, British_is_Best (BT) will win if Muzza beats Nole and finally (based on the rarely needed 'who entered first' tiebreak that is only used when top 3 finishers cannot be separated any other way), greatunclebulgaria (JM) will edge out Robmeister33 (AM) by 3 h 13 m 8 s if Muzza beats Fed in the Final!

So, all to play for over the weekend!

LadyTigress · County player

I was SECOND at one point?! How on earth did I do that?! This could well be my best finish in a Pick'em ever, even though I have lost my eventual champion. What the heck is it with me and end-of-season Pick'ems?! Third year in a row now that I've inexplicably pulled a good performance out of the bag at the penultimate Masters of the year, after facing the possibility of having the previous year's big chunk of points dropping off. O_O

Silver · County player

I don't know how many points I would have been defended for this but either way, whether I'd have played it or not, I'm sure I'd have come close to bottom anyway. So no points or 1 point :P

Tough call.

BUT GUTTED I MISSED THIS ONE :sad: Damn me for being busy and away and busy...

steven · Tennis legend

2010 SHANGHAI MASTERS BOTB - DAY 7 'SYNDICATED' REPORT

The two favourites (out of those left - 20% pick Muzza and 49% pick Fed) won today to set up a repeat (hopefully a complete repeat!) of the Toronto Final, which Muzza won 7-5 7-5 to take the H2H record to, coincidentally, 7-5! For whom will it be their unlucky 13th meeting?

Detailed results can be found at http://www.freewebs.com/britishtennis/competitions.html and they are being updated regularly each day, with 'headlines' and the odd 'quote of the day' appearing on http://twitter.com/botb1 as well.

TEAMS & OUTLOOK

New team the Bangors saw their long-time lead, which at one point was nearly 2 points, cut to just 0.12 today by Team CC, who are still in 2nd place and will finish there whatever happens tomorrow. However, the Feddies won the SF round by miles and have shot up 8 to 3rd, just 0.01 behind CC, with ATP DCC, up 4 to 4th, also rising a lot.

If Muzza wins the title, the top three will remain the same, meaning the debutants will win. However, if Fed wins, his team will win with the ATP Challengers ending up as the lone new team in the top three and the current leaders dropping to 4th.

INDIVIDUALS & OUTLOOK

x5daisy (RF), up 2 to 1st, Craiky (BA), up 3 to 2nd, and JGS (IN), up 3 to 3rd, have taken over the top three places after getting both finalists correct and they will be the final top three if Fed wins the title.

However, if Muzza wins, greatunclebulgaria (JM) & Robmeister33 (AM), both up 11 to 6= today, will finish equal top on both points and the round by round tiebreaks, which means that the former will be deemed to have won because she got her entry in first. Those who have been playing BOTB for a while may be aware that this rarely needed final tiebreak only applies to ties affecting the top three and only for Hall of Fame purposes, i.e. they will both get the same number of ranking points. waylandboy-tw (TA), up 29 to 11= today, will finish 3rd in that scenario.

Overnight leader Johnny (GB) dropped 3 to 4th today after getting just one finalist correct. He will drop further whoever wins the Final, but will cling onto a place in the top 10 (9th) if Muzza wins, while Riidngs (BA), up 6 to 5th today, will move up another place if Fed wins but will drop to 10th if Muzza does.

If Fed wins, IqI (RF), up 11 to 6=, will finish 5th, while current world no. 1 eblunt (BT) (doing his best to shore up the year-end no. 1 spot with a tournament to spare) and a former world no. 1 Pebs (MP), both up 22 to 9= today, will move up to 6=, with NoContest (DC), up 29 to 11= today, quietplease (BB), up 39 to 13=, and Eliza (DC), up 64 to 18th, completing the top 10.

If Muzza wins though, the current top 3 will finish 5th, 7th & 8th, Lizzim (AM), up 39 to 13= today, will finish 4th and Matts the best! (AM), up 61 to 16th, will finish 6th, with the rest of the top 10 in that case already mentioned above.

ON THE RISE

28 entrants got both finalists correct. Just rf8r9 (RF), up 106 to 51st, managed a three-figure rise as a result but all of them moved up significantly, with GOATFed (RF) & banskogirl (AM), both up 93 to 35=, Daniel/Belgarath1981 (RF) & David Thompson (AM), both up 95 to 37=, t_torres (VB), up 96 to 83rd, Kamui010 (MT), up 94 to 99th, and ForeverDelayed (BT), up 93 to 102nd, all up more than 90.

DODGY DROPPERS

Nearly 100 entrants failed to get either finalist correct, including two of the overnight top three, drewziph (BA), down 30 to 32nd (meaning that he will now have to buy that team BA winner drink for someone other than himself!), and JAMES4578 (JM), down 39 to 42nd.

Most of the entrants who drew a blank fell 40-70 places if they started the day in mid-table, with Biggles (IN), Big Al (CC) and FlirtingWD (ML), all down 69 to 109=, dropping down the most.

Querrey to win picker Ryzim (DF) is confirmed as the lanterne rouge, 7 points behind Gasquet to win picker Puschkin (RG), with Dolgopolov to win picker flynny2k10 (MT) perhaps surprisingly managing to avoid a bottom 5 finish, if only just!

SUNDAY OoP WITH PICK %s

SC2: (3) Fed 25% v (4) Muzza 8%

Apart from the bottom two, everyone's ranking points haul from this tournament still depends on the result of the Final - if you did not pick either of the finalists to win, then obviously you need a Muzza win for damage limitation.

LAST REPORT / LAST BOTB OF THE YEAR

As usual, there will not be a separate post-Final report (apart from a few tweets), which is why I have covered all of the team top three and individual top 10 possibilities above.

There will however be a report on the new overall rankings, which will appear sometime between now and Paris - hopefully tomorrow, but if I do not have time then, it may not be until the start of November, since unfortunately work is likely to be a bit all-consuming over the next couple of weeks.

The last BOTB pick 'em of the year will be for Paris, which annoyingly is another Saturday draw (according to the ATP Challenge site, Friday according to MTF) and Sunday main draw start. Last year, we were able to open entries very late on the Friday and they closed at 13.30 GMT on Sunday, so that is the best guide I can offer until we know more about Bercy organisers' plans for this year.

indiana · Tennis legend

World No 1 eblunt gathers up another 659 points. I predict a world record long reign at number 1 smile