2010 US Open 'Battle of the Boards' pick 'em contest

eblunt · Club Coach

RE: 2010 US Open 'Battle of the Boards' pick 'em contest

indiana · Tennis legend

The night session was very late getting started last night, so le Monf just trying to be obliging by getting out of there in good time tonight.

No worries if it helps me gather points tonight from my new bestest friend Novak and he gets good rest before the trail of destuction that he may need to deliver in the following rounds.

eblunt · Club Coach

Good old Novak .. he's been good value this year .. always seems to be unfancied to get to the semis, but when he does gets you get points if you backed to get there (a 3.15 pt net gain for this time)

steven · Tennis legend

eblunt wrote:
You've got to hand it to Jojo - bet on the GEMs, but then knew exactly the right moment to abandon them and go mainstream.

That's QOTD today

And yes, Indiana, Nole is looking good value for his no. 3 ranking at the moment - and he's only the second player in the last 20 years to reach 4 consecutive US Open semis. I don't need to tell you who the other one is. wink

eblunt · Club Coach

Even though I've got Fed to win the semi, I'll be wanting Novak to win (such is the contorted logic of Pickems) thus leaving me with a PDL (Pre-Damage-Limited) final. It would be a 0.42pt net loss, but save me a potential 2.94pt net loss in in the final + make a Rafa win more probable.

Does anyone here else ever wish against their own picks for tactical reasons, or is it just my warped logic ?

indiana · Tennis legend

Oh, yes indeed smile

Being a little warped I think adds to the fun !

I am thinking similarly re a Novak semi final win, though if you take into account the gain we miss on a Fed semi win, then I'd say the net loss to our actual potential position for Novak winning the semi is 1.44 points ( 0.42 + 1.02 ).

However that is still less than the potential damage of Fed winning the title and leaves the Nadal winner pick, like yourself, pre damage limited ( the only potential damage being Novak's 2% for the title ). Indeed for others, like Muzza pickers

it also significantly limits potential Fed damage against what Rafa would cost us.

To slightly confuse the thinking though, you might be of the view that Rafa's form is such that he would likely win the final vs Federer ( in line with your initial prediction ) if they both get there in which case the pre-damage limitation may actually be an unneccessary cost ( a net 1.44 points ) against your personal overall best potential result involving Rafa beating Fed in the final.

Maybe a question here of the optimist vs the pessimist.

Hee hum smile

-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 9th of September 2010 11:10:40 AM

LadyTigress · County player

Honestly, why don't you just hope for Fed to win his semi and then Rafa to take the title? That way you get maximum points. All this talk about Pre-Damage Limitation in't worth a pittance when you consider that it would only have meaning with hindsight. Consider - Federer wins his semi and then beats Rafa in the final. Only then would one have due cause to regret Federer having made the final and wish that his opponent had come through instead. But one cannot regret it if it has not happened yet, and the outcome of any such contest between Fed and Rafa in the final is uncertain, particularly as is the case in tennis. Better by far to hope for that which helps you the best, not knowing as yet how events will play out, rather than needlessly trouble oneself over the possibilities. Furthermore, it is nonsensical to hope for a lesser outcome which is overall a small gain including a loss but a bigger win OVER the greater outcome of two wins and a larger points gain, especially when, as aforementioned, events have not yet played out and there is no reason yet to regret Fed getting to the final.

indiana · Tennis legend

Yes, Lady T, even as I wrote my reply, I was more coming to the same conclusion as yourself, certainly for the pickers of Nadal to beat Fed in the final like eblunt.

That is what they predicted, their theoretically perfect finish. Why take such an even relatively low hit in the semi "just in case". Live for the moment, be that optimist. If you are in a pretty good current overall position like eblunt. then look to get as high as possible, not consider how much you might fall.

Maybe if Fed had been say a 98% or more choice for the final, and it hardly cost at all, but here.....hmm

Arguably pre-damage limitation hopes have their place ( and I admit to having the warped mind that looks at these things ) but in this scenario, I don't think so.

eblunt · Club Coach

You've got a point there - why lose 1.5 points now when Rafa has a good chance anyway, but I think he'd only be a 50% chance against Fed, but I'd put him at more like 80% to beat Nole. It would let me sleep more easily if Fed was out !!

indiana · Tennis legend

Doctor - And why do you think you might have these problems with your sleep ?

eblunt - well, there's this competition...

LadyTigress · County player

My point exactly. Illogical, Captain, was basically the point of my entire post there. Optimism and shooting for the best seems like the most sensible approach.

PDL has its place in dead sections of your Pick'em where Player X beating Player Y would be more likely to beat Player Z in the next round where Player Z killed your Pick'em and based on what other people Picked it would be helpful for Player Z to lose. But it doesn't make sense where you've got live matches and a really decent chance - why settle for less? Hope for the best!

eblunt · Club Coach

AAAh but if there was a world number 1 overall rankings spot possibly at stake should Rafa win the final would you prefer any result that made it more likely ..... It's not all just about one tournament you see.

SMC1809 · All-time great

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQy5DlzIeHRTNUUEHcQaIldLX02RFYc3QcDurxinfXY3NKdsPE&t=1&usg=__scffJ59eVz530maNY0B7mhGTFQQ=

Will the real Mikhail Youzhny please stand up?

steven · Tennis legend

2010 US OPEN BOTB - QFs 'SYNDICATED' REPORT

With one completely dead match, from which Youzhny became the only player at this year's USO to go further than anyone had predicted him to, nobody got all four semi-finalists correct. However, wins for Nole 37% (he was the 2nd favourite to reach the semis in that quarter after Duckboy), Fed 92% and Rafa 84% enabled over 30% of us to get all of the other three correct, while another 50% or so got 2/4.

Detailed results, lists of everyone's picks and so on can be found at http://www.freewebs.com/britishtennis/Competitions.html and these are now being updated regularly each day.

TEAMS

Rafa's win in the final QF was enough to enable AM.com to take back the lead in the teams league from the Dammitaires, down 1 to 2nd. R1 & R2 winners GBTG got the highest raw average in yet another round to move up 2 to 3rd ahead of Team CC, but the latter are likely to have the last laugh there. BT.net complete the top 5.

The biggest risers over the QFs were Rusedski.co.uk, up 5 to 9th, and JM.org, up 4 to 8th.

The biggest fallers were the Feddies, down 3 to 10th, TW, down 3 to 11th, and the Ducklings, down 3 to 16th, but it is MTF, down 2 to 17th, who are now holding the lanterne rouge.

INDIVIDUALS

With 3/4 correct, Jojo56 (RG) remained on top throughout the QFs and still leads by 3 points from anne (IN), who is still in 2nd.

cazza99 (AM), up 1 to 3rd, jmc116 (IN), up 1 to 4th, --cj-- (TA), up 4 to 5th, and airsmashers (BT), up 4 to 6th, all rose within the top 10, overtaking GoGo (AM), down 4 to 7th, who was the only entrant who managed to hang on in the top 10 with just 2/4 semi-finalists correct.

Blodwyn (AM), up 4 to 8th (the ASE family now has 2 in the top 13!), scruffybearmac (AM), up 15 to 9th, and Osmeone (IN), up 16 to 10th, all joined the top 10, replacing SteveWalker (BT), down 5 to 11th, and freerider (BT), down 5 to 12th, who both got 2/4, and Puschkin (RG), who plummeted 38 to 46th after getting just 1/4.

ON THE RISE

Well over 100 entrants got 3/4 QF winners correct and of them, the four fastest risers were lbk77 (TA), up 69 to 244th, clare2904 (ML), up 70 to 250th, riser of the round MisterPap (RG), up 71 to 251st, and trisco (CC), up 69 to 255th.

DODGY DROPPERS

It was quite a feat to get all four semi-finalists wrong, but half a dozen entrants managed it! Five of them fell over 120 places - British_is_Best (BT), down 141 from 18th to 159th, faller of the round avatar (TY), down 143 to 286th, Allan (AM), down 133 to 322nd, Ivanatis (MT), down 132 to 328th, and vchap (LH), down 125 to 334th.

The last of them (SUZE CLARK (AR), down 11 to 372nd) did not have that much further to fall. She will drop to last place if Fed reaches the Final but djlovesyou (BT) will be left holding the lanterne rouge otherwise after Sadey (GR), who had been last before the round started, got an astonishing (for someone in last place) 3/4 correct and moved up 13 places!

TEAM KO

The scores after 4 of the 7 matches that count towards the Finals are:

FINAL: (7) RichardGasquet.net lead (12) RogerFederer.com 10.77-10
3-4: (1) AndyMurray.com lead (14) TalkAboutTennis 11.07-10.89
5-6: (4) MyTennisLounge.com lead (6) Tennis-Warehouse 11.36-10
7-8: (2) GBTennisGirls.com lead (9) MensTennisForums 13.57-8.33
9-10: (15) Tennisopolis.com lead (5) Tennis4you.com 10.67-9
11-12: (8) JamieMurray.org lead (3) BritishTennis.net 11.79-11.32
13-14: (13) Rusedski.co.uk lead (10) Centre Court Forum 11.76-11
15-16: (16) NewBallsPlease are tied with (11) BBC 606 boards 10-10

OUTLOOK

I'll be back with the SF pick %s and top three possibilities once the OoP for the semis has come out, but as far as winners are concerned:

AM.com will win the teams league if Nole reaches the Final or if Youzhny beats Fed there but Team CC will snatch a last gasp win in all other cases with Fed in the Final.

The Gasquetaires will win the team KO unless Fed wins the Final, in which case his team will take it.

In 7 of the 8 possible scenarios remaining, Jojo56 (RG) will win the individual title by between 2 and 10 points, and will get between 728 (if Nole beat Youzhny) and a massive 834 (if Rafa beats Fed) ranking points depending on the outcome.

However, if Fed beats Youzhny in the Final, cazza99 (AM) will edge her out on tiebreak, by virtue of having scored just one point more than her in R1!

steven · Tennis legend

SEMI-FINALS - PICK %s & OoPs

AA-1: (1) Rafa 21% v Youzhny 0% (nobody) - other picks: Muzza 71%, Berdbrain 3%, Nalby 3%, Gulbis 1%, Chela, Ferrer & Stako

AA-2: (2) Fed v (3) Nole 7% - other picks: Duckboy 7%, Söd 2%, Hewitt 1%, Kolya, Baggy, Dammit & Fish

OUTLOOK

The outlook sections below expand on what was in the post-QFs report about potential winners to cover the possibilities for 2nd and 3rd as well.

TEAMS

The top two, AM & RG will remain as they are now if Nole reaches the Final, with CC taking 3rd place if he plays Rafa there but MTL or GBTG finishing 3rd if he beats or loses to Youzhny there respectively.

AM will also win if Youzhny beats Fed in the Final, but in that case CC will move up to 2nd with RG 3rd.

In all other cases (i.e. if Fed wins the title or loses to Rafa in the Final), CC will win the teams league, with RF 2nd & TAT 3rd if Fed wins the title or AM 2nd & RG 3rd if Rafa beats him.

RG will win the team KO Final unless Fed wins the title.

INDIVIDUALS

If Fed beats Youzhny in the Final, cazza99 (AM) will win the title on tiebreak from Jojo56 (RG) (by virtue of having scored just one more point in R1!), with jmc116 (IN) also on the same points total in 3rd.

In all other cases, Jojo56 (RG) will win, with 2nd and 3rd decided as follows:

- if Youzhny wins the title, the top three will be as they are now, with anne (IN) 2nd and cazza99 (AM) 3rd

- if Youzhny loses to Nole in the Final, the top two will remain the same but srberg (DF) will move up into 3rd

- if Nole plays Rafa in the Final, scruffybearmac (AM) will finish 2nd, with GoGo (AM) 3rd if Rafa wins such a Final and anne (IN) 3rd if Nole does

- if Rafa beats Fed in the Final, GoGo (AM) will finish 2nd with Bhar11 (TA) in 3rd

- if Fed beats Rafa in the Final, --cj-- (TA) will finish 2nd with cazza99 (AM) 3rd

Futher down the table, very big moves are still possible as well, with many of those in the top 100 capable of ending up in the top 10 if the remaining results go their way and one player currently outside the top 250 able to finish in the top 35 if everything goes right!