Roland Garros 2010 'Battle of the Boards' pick 'em contest

LadyTigress · County player

RE: Roland Garros 2010 'Battle of the Boards' pick 'em contest

steven · Tennis legend

eblunt wrote:

Question for Steven :

This may be a bit mad of me, but by my (possibly incorrect) calculations I think I'd be better off (ranking points wise) if Almagro beats Rafa, even though I have Rafa to win the tournament.

My thinking is this, I'm currently 17 pts over average, 7.8% worth 156 pts. If everyone gets 5 points , I stay at 17pts over average, but the percentage will fall slightly, thus giving less ranking points. With Fed out, there's no-one that Rafa can play that has more than 1% behind them, so it won't make any difference in places.

effectively, all the 'rafa points' that everyone will get merely dilutes the % above average that I have, so am I better off if he goes out ?

I can see what you're getting at here, but just looking at the Rafa-Almagro result on its own, a Rafa win was worth 1 ranking point more to you than an Almagro win.

Stunned (but happy) to get back and find the Melzer result!

eblunt · Club Coach

steven wrote:

eblunt wrote:

Question for Steven :

This may be a bit mad of me, but by my (possibly incorrect) calculations I think I'd be better off (ranking points wise) if Almagro beats Rafa, even though I have Rafa to win the tournament.

My thinking is this, I'm currently 17 pts over average, 7.8% worth 156 pts. If everyone gets 5 points , I stay at 17pts over average, but the percentage will fall slightly, thus giving less ranking points. With Fed out, there's no-one that Rafa can play that has more than 1% behind them, so it won't make any difference in places.

effectively, all the 'rafa points' that everyone will get merely dilutes the % above average that I have, so am I better off if he goes out ?
I can see what you're getting at here, but just looking at the Rafa-Almagro result on its own, a Rafa win was worth 1 ranking point more to you than an Almagro win.

Stunned (but happy) to get back and find the Melzer result!

And basically pales into insignificance compared to a Djoko superchoke. I'm seriously pissed off with that Serbian serial superchoker (SSS). I looked at the inline betting, and at onw point the odds were melzer 50-1 against, Djoko 1-500 on. Really wish I'd got a bet on Melzer at those odds !!!

steven · Tennis legend

2010 ROLAND GARROS BOTB - QFs 'SYNDICATED' REPORT

Days 10 & 11 produced one semi-finalist that 99% of us had predicted (Rafa) and one match which gave a boost to 12%, when Berdbrain beat 8% pick Youzhny to emerge from that fiendishly difficult to predict 2nd quarter of the draw.

The QFs also produced one big shock (0% pick Melzer saving the bacon of the 76% of us who didn't expect Nole reach the semis - the turning point seemingly coming when the Austrian was two sets and a break down and I wrote "Come on Melzer you muppet, you could at least try to look like you care") LOL) and one huge shock as fearless 3% pick Söd brought an unexpected end to Fed's 23 slam semi-final streak.

Detailed results can be found at http://www.freewebs.com/britishtennis/competitions.html and are being updated regularly each day (net connections and the like permitting), with 'headlines', the odd rant (when I just can't stop myself!) and the odd 'quote of the day' appearing on http://twitter.com/botb1 as well.

TEAMS including top 3 outlook

Congratulations to BritishTennis.net WR 2, who have led the teams league virtually from start to finish and can no longer be caught, even though their lead was cut from over a point to just 0.24 over the course of the QFs.

MTF WR 8 have stayed in 2nd and that's where they will finish unless Rafa wins the title, in which case TAT WR 3 (back up 1 to 3rd after the QFs) will swap places with them and be the runners up.

Completing the top 5 after the QFs are R3 & R4 winners T4Y WR 12, down 1 to 4th, and once again, with Rusedski.co.uk WR 4, up 2 to 5th.

The joint top scorers in the QFs were teams in the bottom half of the table - Tennisopolis WR 11, up 1 to 9th, and GBTG WR 15, up 2 to 11th, with the Daily Forehand WR 16 also jumping 2 places to 12th.

QF low scorers the Feddies WR 1 (but now certain to lose the top spot in the overall team rankings) and the Ducklings WR 13 both fell 2 places into the bottom three, but are still ahead of the Dammitaires WR 10, for whom Muzza's loss may have come a bit too late.

INDIVIDUALS including top 3 outlook

Congratulations to RG 2010 BOTB winner Akhenaten (BT), up 1 to 1st after the QFs, and runner-up Dan C (TN), up 2 to 2nd, who both got 2/4 semi-finalists correct and can no longer be caught by those below them.

Miles (TA), down 2 to 3rd after getting just Rafa correct, will finish there unless Söderling reaches the Final, in which case rondun (JM) will edge him for the last podium place.

Four entrants who got 2/4 correct in the QFs have risen into the top 10 - Scotsguy (CC), up 7 to 4th, Björki (MT), up 7 to 5th, eblunt (BT), up 11 to 7th, and Snoo Foo (MT), up 20 to 10th.

Three more entrants dropped a bit after only getting Rafa correct but have managed to hang on in the top 10 - current world no. 10 (and, a rough calculation suggests, probable new world no. 1) Scratchy (BT), down 3 to 6th, Deathless Mortal (MT), down 3 to 8th, and DavidC (BT), down 3 to 9th.

ON THE RISE

Just (or should that be "Surprisingly, as many as ...") three entrants (less than 1%) got 3/4 semi-finalists correct.

rondun (JM), up 76 to 13th, got Rafa, Berdbrain & Söd, and as mentioned above will move up to 3rd if the latter reaches the Final. Babfive (GB), up 137 to 112th, got the same three and was the biggest riser of the day, while sengale (RG), up 120 to 161st, was the only entrant who correctly predicted Melzer's run to the last four. Well done to all three!

DODGY DROPPERS

Only three entrants failed to get any semi-finalists correct, i.e. didn't even pick Rafa to make the semis, and they were all from boards dedicated to other members of the ATP top three - biggest faller of the day Arab (RF), down 88 to 207th, marion bernard (ND), down 42 to 315th, and irenerer (RF), down 26 to 330th.

However the lanterne rouge by some distance will be Petzschner's Left Thumb (IN) for the second time in his three attempts at BOTB so far. This seems to be due to misplaced(?) loyalty to his favourite player rather than them being deliberate attempts to finish last, which we would have consider excluding from the competition in order to make the 'battle' to hold the lanterne a genuine one. In fact in his 2nd BOTB, where he finished off the bottom in 9th from last, he picked Melzer to win since Petzschner wasn't playing, and that now seems strangely prescient, albeit a tournament too early!

FRIDAY

(5) Söderling 3% v (15) Berdbrain 1% - the Czech winning would be the best damage limitation ('DL') for the 96% who picked Fed 85%, Muzza 5%, Gulbis (ROFL) 3%, JWT 2% or others 1%

(2) Rafa 96% v (22) Melzer 0% - 0% = nobody in this case, but Melzer would provide DL for those who picked Duckboy (ROFL again) 1%, Pics 1%, Nole 1% or others 1%

TEAM KO

The latest scores in the Finals (which are based on the last 7 matches at RG) are as follows:

FINAL: (2) MensTennisForums lead (5) TalkAboutTennis 6.58-6.02
3-4: (11) BBC 606 boards lead (1) BritishTennis.net 5.83-5.68
5-6: (10) AndyMurray.com lead (13) Centre Court Forum 5.58-5.22
7-8: (3) JamieMurray.org lead (8) Rusedski.co.uk 6.25-5.59
9-10: (16) The Daily Forehand lead (6) Tennis4you.com 6.43-5
11-12: (12) Tennisopolis.com lead (15) AndyRoddick.com 6.67-5
13-14: (9) RichardGasquet.net lead (7) RogerFederer.com 6.54-4.77
15-16: (14) GBTennisGirls.com lead (4) Other Boards 6.67-5.59

The two main finalists are of course fighting it out for 2nd and 3rd places in the teams league too, but in this case I think MTF are now safe even if Rafa wins the title, though in that case they would only edge the final by 0.03 points. However, TAT are looking odds on (*) to regain the world no. 1 spot in the overall team rankings next Monday.

(*) = I'm pretty sure but can't be bothered to check in detail at this stage!

Akhenaten · Pro player

I LOVE JURGEN MELZER!!!

steven · Tennis legend

2010 ROLAND GARROS BOTB - SFs 'SYNDICATED' REPORT

The semi-finals went the way of the two favourites, though such had been the carnage in the top half of the draw that Söderling had only been predicted to reach the Final by 9 entrants (c.f. 2 for Berdbrain), whereas Rafa was picked to reach the Final by 96% of us.

This will be my last report on RG apart from the ranking report that will follow sometime in the next few days - if Söderling wins the Final, everything will remain unchanged and I will mention below the main things that will change if Rafa wins.

Detailed results can be found at http://www.freewebs.com/britishtennis/competitions.html and are being updated regularly each day (net connections and the like permitting), with 'headlines', the odd rant (when I just can't stop myself!) and the odd 'quote of the day' appearing on http://twitter.com/botb1 as well.

TEAMS

As confirmed after the QFs, BritishTennis.net WR 2, who have led the teams league virtually from start to finish, can no longer be caught so congratulations to them on a fine win. MTF WR 8 are still in 2nd but 3rd placed TAT WR 3 will overhaul them to take the runner-up spot if Rafa wins the title. Meanwhile, T4Y have made an impressive return to the competition, albeit with just 5 entrants, getting the highest raw average score and finishing 4th once the team size adjustment is taken into account.

AM.com WR 5 have made it into the RG top 5, the SF results enabling them to edge ahead of Rusedski.co.uk WR 4, who finish 6th. JM.org, up 1 to 7th after the SFs, and Friday's biggest risers & SF top scorers BBC 606, up 2 to 8th, will both see those gains reversed if Rafa wins the Final, while in that case Team CC, down 3 to 10th, will see that loss reversed. Tennisopolis in 9th & GBTG in 11th will remain where they are whatever happens.

The Daily Forehand stayed in 12th after the SFs but will drop a place if Rafa wins, with the Ducklings, up 1 to 13th, gaining another place if that happens. Defending RG teams league champions The Feddies, down 1 to 14th, will slip another place to last if Rafa wins the title, which would allow the Dammitaires to climb a place and relinquish the lanterne rouge at the last gasp.

INDIVIDUALS

2010 RG BOTB winner Akhenaten (BT) (who actually won the AO back in 2007 when there were just 11 entrants and the competition was not yet a Battle of the Boards!) was already safe in 1st place before the SFs, winning by a single point from Dan C (TN), but the SFs did change the final podium position, which will now go to one of the 8 entrants who got both finalists correct, rondun (JM), up 10 to 3rd.

Sandman (BT), up 16 to 4th, also got both finalists correct, with the rest of the top 10 getting just one and dropping 2 places - they are Miles (TA) in 5th, Scotsguy (CC) in 6th (with yet another top 10 finish after placing 3rd in both Shanghai and Paris late last year!), Björki (MT) in 7th, Scratchy (BT) in 8th, eblunt (BT) in 9th and Deathless Mortal (MT) in 10th.

DavidC (BT), down 2 to 11th, and Snoo Foo (MT), down 3 to 13th, were unlucky enough to drop out of the top 10 at the last moment, but all of the top 25 are now safe in their current positions because they have all picked Rafa to win the title, though their ranking point haul from this BOTB will go up by about 3-5 from the bonus point calculation if he does so.

ON THE RISE

2 of the 8 entrants who got both finalists correct were mentioned in the top 10 above. The other 6 were the Friday's fastest risers - jaysee (AM), up 36 to 12th, Cain Bradley (BB), up 66 to 40th, Babfive (GB), up 71 to 41st, BenP (AM), up 72 to 49th, squirt squirt (TN), up 78 to 50th, and riser of the day IntnstyAngle (TA), up 80 to 168th.

DODGY DROPPERS

Only 12 entrants failed to get either finalist correct - Daniel/Belgarath1981 (RF), down 59 to 84th, T. x (CC), down 70 to 110th, Derevko (MT), down 83 to 135th, Andrea (RF), down 96 to 176th, jaydu (AM), down 85 to 208th, GOATFed (RF), down 81 to 243rd, Arab (RF), down 69 to 276th, and Ryzim (DF), down 69 to 283rd, all fell more than 50 places as a result, the other four having already been outside the top 300 before the semis.

As reported after the QFs, Petzschner's Left Thumb (IN) had already 'secured' the lanterne rouge for the second time in his three BOTB attempts so far.

SUNDAY

(2) Rafa 85% v (5) Söderling 0% (0)

TEAM KO

The latest scores in the Finals (which are based on the last 7 matches at RG) are as follows:

TEAM KO FINALS

FINAL: (2) MensTennisForums lead (5) TalkAboutTennis 12.26-12.16
3-4: (11) BBC 606 boards lead (1) BritishTennis.net 12.83-11.84
5-6: (10) AndyMurray.com lead (13) Centre Court Forum 11.69-10.96
7-8: (3) JamieMurray.org lead (8) Rusedski.co.uk 12.75-11.59
9-10: (16) The Daily Forehand lead (6) Tennis4you.com 11.57-11
11-12: (12) Tennisopolis.com lead (15) AndyRoddick.com 13.07-9.8
13-14: (9) RichardGasquet.net lead (7) RogerFederer.com 12.54-9.14
15-16: (14) GBTennisGirls.com lead (4) Other Boards 13.33-11.24

It turns out that TAT do still have a chance of winning this after all - they will beat MTF by 0.11 if Rafa wins the title, and in that case BT.net will overhaul BBC 606 in the 3rd place match too.

Also if Rafa wins, Rusedski.co.uk will edge out JM.org for 7th by just 0.01 points and T4Y will beat the Daily Forehand for 9th. In all other matches, the current leader cannot be caught.

steven · Tennis legend

WIMBLEDON

Thank you to everyone who has taken part in a fascinating Roland Garros BOTB, and especially to those who kept the various forums going with comments during the contest.

Entries for Wimbledon BOTB will open sometime during the afternoon (UK time) of Friday 18 June, with qualifiers likely to be placed the same day, weather permitting.

The start of Wimbledon BOTB is going to be complicated by the fact that I have been lucky enough to get Centre Court tickets for day 1 (and believe me, I'm not giving up that chance, even for you lot! LOL) and some of the things that have to be done between entries closing and the first results going up have to be done by me - unfortunately it would simply take too long at the moment to document it sufficiently for someone else to do those bits.

So we've got two choices:

1) we close entries early on Sunday afternoon and (assuming I don't have too much urgent work to finish on the Sunday too), I then get the results pages ready on Sunday so that someone else can publish results on Monday

2) we close entries when play starts as usual, in which case the first results probably won't start to appear until towards the end of Tuesday

It has to be one or the other (since, for example, doing Monday results for early entrants then adding late entrants in on Tuesday would add too much to the overall workload) and option 2) is probably safest (better to do without results on Monday rather than risk lots of people missing out on entering altogether?), but feel free to comment over the next few hours and I'll announce the final decision when I post the report on the post-RG overall rankings.

wolf · Tennis legend

Defo 2.

We want as many users as possible, who cares if the results are a bit late?

DavidC · Tennis legend

Agree with Wolf on option 2 for Wimbledon - thanks for the excellent organisation for the French as always smile

steven · Tennis legend

Thanks. All the comments on the main boards say option 2, and it makes sense to me, not least because (as Yorkie on AM.com said) "closing the draw early will potentially hit a number of people who are used to the usual timing of entries closing at the start of the first match. However much you advertise the change you can guarantee there will be some who miss the warning."

indiana · Tennis legend

Yes, defo no 2

indiana · Tennis legend

And finally in spite of the wishes of most of RogerFederer board, some chappee Nadal scrapes through in 3 sets in the final.

steven · Tennis legend

POST-ROLAND GARROS 2010 BOTB PICK 'EM RANKINGS

The new overall ranking list (with 747 ranked players) and the pick 'em 'Hall of Fame' after Roland Garros 2010 can now be found at http://www.freewebs.com/britishtennis/Competitions.html

TEAMS

Winning the RG team KO together with a 2nd place finish in the RG league have enabled TAT to climb 2 places back to the top of the overall BOTB team rankings - many congrats to them!

RG league winners BT.net have added to their points but remain in 2nd, while last year's RG league winners finished last this time and fall 2 places to 3rd, the Feddies thus losing the no. 1 spot in tandem with their hero.

A pair of 5th places at RG was enough to enable AM.com, up 1 to 4th, to overhaul Rusedski.co.uk, down 1 to 5th (an all-time low for them), by just 13 points (0.5%), while a pair of top three finishes have lifted MTF up 2 to 6th, swapping places with Team CC, with BBC 606 still sandwiched between them in 7th.

Tennisopolis, up 1 to 10th, are back in the top 10 and T4Y, up 1 to 11th, have also edged up after a reasonably successful return to being a full team, with the Dammitaires, down 2 to 12th, falling behind both of them. Meanwhile, GBTG & the Daily Forehand have both edged up a place to all-time highs at 14th and 15th respectively at the expense of the Cmawns, who fall 2 to 16th after failing to field a full team at RG.

TEAMS OUTLOOK FOR WIMBLEDON

Team RF are defending big points at Wimbledon so may well slip further, especially if Fed fails to retain the title. All of the other teams in the top 5 are defending just one counting score so could make significant progress, while 6th placed MTF have no counting score to defend at all.

NEW INDIVIDUAL TOP 10

The previous top 4 all defending big points and failing to finish in the top quartile at RG has ensured big changes at the top of the individual rankings.

A second top 10 finish in a row has helped Scratchy (BT) to be the new world no. 1 by over 200 points. His best 7 scores also include a top 20 finish at Wimbledon last year and a top 10 finish at Montréal, so he should probably make sure he makes the most of being on top now because it's going to be a struggle to stay there over the next two tournaments.

Scotsguy (CC) has risen an amazing 46 places to WR 2. He had reached a career high of WR 3 after back to back 3rd place finishes in Shanghai and Paris late last year but then dropped back to only just inside the top 50 after poor performances in the first three BOTBs of 2010 only to soar again thanks to a 6th place finish at RG. As a Scot, he is the only player preventing England from a clean sweep of the new top 10 and is the favourite to be no. 1 after Wimbledon, where he has no counting scores to defend.

Moving up 2 to 3rd but just missing out on a new CH is Steven (GR), i.e. me - this seemed like my big chance to take the no. 1 spot and I did enough to overtake the previous no. 1, but congrats to the two players whose top 10 finishes at RG meant they ended up at WR 1 and 2 - well deserved, if a little frustrating! LOL

Former no. 1 Shabba (IN) has dropped 3 to 4th, completing a top 4 whose names all begin with S (!) and the new top 5 is completed by Portsey (BT), up 1 to 5th. Like these two, TimS (GR), up 1 to 6th, failed to get a counting score at RG, but he has edged up thanks to others falling by the wayside. (*)

Another big riser into the top 10 is t12j23r90 (AM), up 43 to 7th after a top 50 finish at RG, and the top 10 is completed by former world no. 3 Dentist Appointment (IN), up 9 to 8th, RG winner Akhenaten (BT), up 13 to 9th, and RG top 20 finisher Roy (GR), down 2 to 10th having been defending top 20 points from last year.

Three former world no. 1s are closing back in on the top 10 rather ominously - goldfish (BT) is the highest-ranked player not to have moved as a result of RG at WR 11, Linda (AM), up 30 to WR 15, has staged a remarkable recovery this year having dropped, Agassi-like, way out of the top 100 at one point, and ASE (AM), up 44 to WR 27, is also regaining lost ground.

(*) Three of the previous top 10 have suffered big drops having had fairly a dismal time at RG this year - GVGirl (TA), down 26 to WR 28, and Oploskoffie (TA), down 13 to WR 17, were both defending top 35 points and Jose Javier/Byaka86 (RF), down 41 to WR 44, was defending 10th place points.

ON THE RISE

By far the biggest riser into the overall top 50 is David C (BT), up 118 to WR 23 after his second top 20 finish in a slam in a row. He has managed to get into the top 25 without playing a single Masters pick 'em in the last 12 months!

Other 3-figure risers into the top 100 are Manaus (AM), up 150 to WR 73 (he has only been playing since the start of the year and still does not have 7 counting scores, but all of his first 6 scores are over 500!), Kamui010 (MT), up 130 to WR 76, mysterX (TA), up 110 to WR 80, RG 3rd placed rondun (JM), up 143 to WR 81, and buddyholly (MT), up 115 to WR 97.

Up over 150 into the top 250 are a top 20 finisher in the first BOTB he has played this year, FERNET (MT), up 151 to WR 111, Sparkey (GB), up 162 to 115 (also after a top 20 finish at RG), RG runner-up Dan C (TN), up 156 to WR 128, RG 10th place finisher Deathless Mortal (MT), up 156 to WR 227, and former world no. 4 seagull (BT), up 151 to WR 237.

The fastest risers of all though, all up over 300 places, are waylandboy-tw (TA), up 318 to WR 336, squirt squirt (TN), up 315 to WR 348, and Pugsley (BT), up 317 to WR 397.

The highest new entrant is Sandman (BT), in at WR 343 after finishing 4th at RG.

LAST YEAR'S RG WINNERS

The big fallers are usually those who didn't play in the latest pick 'em and are running out of counting scores, so when looking at fallers it's probably more interesting to see how the top three in the event coming off from last year have fared.

Unusually, last year's RG winner tennisfan78 (TY) and 3rd place finisher michael9191 (TN) have both not played a BOTB since, so have fallen out of the rankings from WR 338 and WR 345 respectively, while 2009 runner-up SoraOblivion (TA) did play this year but failed to finish in the top half and falls 145 to WR 283.

THE NEXT PICK 'EM

The next pick 'em will of course be for Wimbledon. As another slam where individual points can be counted twice within a player's best 7 scores and where there are both league and KO points for the teams, Wimbledon could lead to more very big changes in the overall rankings!

Entries will open sometime on the afternoon of Friday 18 June. If the weather in qualifying week allows qualifiers to be placed on Friday as well, I will hold off sending emails to those who have asked to be on the mailing list until that has happened.

I can now confirm that entries will close when play starts on the outside courts (or on Centre if the outside courts are rained off) on Monday 21 June, with the first results appearing late on Tuesday due to me being at Wimbledon on day 1.

indiana · Tennis legend

Great stuff BT

BT.net RG league winners !

Akhenaten RG individual winner !

Scratchy new world no 1 !

Plus many fine supporting performances including RG 4th and highest new entry Sandman, Grand Slam man David C and these that at different times threatened so much with their name in lights at times.

Ignoring that Steven guy that plays for opposition, but thanking him so much for all the work he puts in to making pick 'em the success it is !

-- Edited by indiana on Sunday 6th of June 2010 09:57:45 PM

LadyTigress · County player

Up 8 ranking spots! Decent result. I've just broken into the top 100!