I had him to win the whole thing too LT. The thing is though an awful lot of other folk seem to have also somehow convinced themselves he was truelly going to wake up from his recent slumbers in Miami.
97% have him reaching the QFs, and 74% the semis ( 23% have Soderling ) so basically until then ( especially to the QFs ) nearly everyone is getting hit.
For top half semi winner it is 54% Federer and 39% Andy so if someone would stop Fed reaching the final then that would be decent damage limitation for the Murray folk.
From my own currently exalted 179th place, I think I maybe need rather more than damage limitation though
The seeded players were the majority picks in all of Saturday's matches and four of them went out. Three were minor (17-32) seeds - Montanes (picked by 74%) lost to Serra (18%), Simon (75%) lost to Zeballos (1%) and Tipsy (82%) lost to Petzschner (15%), but the biggest shock by far was Fish (1%) taking out defending champion Muzza (99%), whose return to his second home in Miami did not mark the return to a better mental state that many of us who picked him to go deep had been hoping for.
MTF have increased their lead over BT.net to more than a point, but the only move in the teams table came from world no. 2 team TAT, up 2 to 3rd. This pushed BBC 606 down 1 to 4th, though they held on to the highest average score in R2, and Rusedski.co.uk down 1 to 5th.
INDIVIDUALS
Jett (AR) was one of just two entrants who predicted that Muzza would get slapped around the face with a wet Fish and that result, together with her predictions of the Becker and Stakh wins on Friday, helped her to achieve the outright top score in R2 (26/32 correct) and to move up 4 more places to 1st on day 4, though Billy the Bookie bot is still ahead of all of us, which is probably why the team competition leaders are who they are!
Just a point behind are Scotty (TA), up 7 to 2=, and one of the 8 joint top scorers on day 4 (with 14/16) Boarder35m (MT), up 27 to 2=, while R1 winner Scratchy (BT) continued to do well in the top half of the draw and has regained 8 places to 4th.
In common with him though, day 3 leaders Steven (GR) and amalyn (MT), both down 4 to 5=, have Muzza as their winner, as does British_is_Best (BT), up 7 to 7=. They are all likely to go into freefall in a few days' time unless there are a lot more big shocks in the top half of the draw in the next couple of rounds.
Another of the equal top scorers on Saturday, JM1138 (BT), rose 49 to 7=, with Snoo Foo (MT) rising 53 to 9= for the same reason, while Miles (TA) and Canadian WxMan (IN), both up 13 to 9=, complete the top 10.
ON THE RISE
Outside the top 10, three of the five remaining joint top scorers on day 4 were from the same team - BeauJarkko (TA) & JTContinental (TA), both up 78 to 50=, and Pingponger (TA), up 99 to 100=. The other two were also team-mates - ChrisSpotmen (RG), up 73 to 37th, and MisterPap (RG), up 99 to 100=. The two 99-place moves were the biggest of the day, since nobody quite managed a three-figure rise.
DODGY DROPPERS
Only four entrants got less than 10/16 correct on day 4, and they include the three biggest fallers - Matts the best! (AM), down 117 to 186= (one of day 3's fastest risers, he is unusual in this competition in having got more R2 winners correct in the bottom half of the draw than in the top half), vchap (LH), down 110 to 205=, and Petzchner's Left Thumb (IN), down 97 to 207=.
The latter was the other entrant who picked Fish to beat Murray. He also got the Serra and Petzschner upsets correct but he had predicted that 10 of the 16 seeds would lose on Saturday, proving that you need to pick and choose your upsets carefully (instead of going for almost every possible match that could conceivably go against the odds) if you want to do well overall. However, who would have guessed that he would still have his winner pick alive (even if his nickname suggests he can't spell his winner pick's name ...) when 37% of us have already lost ours!
tlimvvo2max (CC) and dot (IN) are now tied for last place, but are a long way ahead of the gorillas, who are wondering how quickly their heroine sallydaisy (JM), still in the top 50, is going to manage to get down to rescue them!
OUTLOOK
11 entrants have 14 of their R3 winner picks still intact at the end of R2. They include the current leader plus the former world no. 1 kaseldop (GR) in 23=, but amazingly the other 9 are all outside the top 90, so there could be some very big moves to come in R3!
As with the Nole loss the previous day, the effects of the Murray loss will not start to bite in a big way for another couple of rounds because they were both such heavy favourites to make the QFs, but those who picked them to go deep should be hoping that the other contenders in their sections drop like flies over the next two days!
SUNDAY PREVIEW - pick %s and 3%+ picks who are already out
GC 1: (33) Almagro 29% v Chardy 0% (1) (Querrey 61% & Ancic 10% hoping for damage limitation) GC 2: (27) Bellucci 0% (0) v O Rochus 0% (0) (Nole 90%, Flake 6%, Dammit 4%) SC 2: (4) Rafa 98% v (W) Numpty 2% C2 3: (15) Ferrer 55% v (24) Ivo 43% C2 4: (18) Robredo 28% v Becker 0% (1) (Ljubo 71% hoping for damage limitation) SC 4: (6) Duckboy 99% v Stakh 0% (0) GC 5: (17) Isner 81% v (12) JCF 19% SC 6: (8) Tsonga 90% v (28) Kohli 10%
Clearly, Pics v Ivo is the big swing match of the day, but the Almagro and Robredo matches could have a big effect on the table, with lots of us desperate for GEreMy and Becker to save us even though we did not pick them!
-- Edited by steven on Sunday 28th of March 2010 01:12:42 PM
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
defending champion Muzza (99%), whose return to his second home in Miami did mark the return to a better mental state that many of us who picked him to go deep had been hoping for.
Typo? Someone's been working late, thanks for all your work on Pick'em, steven!
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King of Slice "He's on a one-man mission to bring the slice back to tennis." Inverdale
Much to the chagrin of those of us who thought the 'devil dirt' (thanks for that one, jaydu!) season did did not start until next week and that the Miami courts played a bit faster than those at IW, the Spaniards swept virtually all before them on Sunday.
Rafa (picked by 98%) saw off an early challenge from Numpty Nalby and just when some of us could have been forgiven for thinking a GEM might help us out for a change by limiting some of the damage he himself had caused, Chardy held out the white flag towards the end of his match with Almagro (29%) to give a foretaste of what was to come.
Pics Ferrer (55%) then won the swing match of the day against Ivo (43%) and while Becker (picked only by ml7000 (IN) who is outside the top 200) recovered from being fed a bakery product in the 1st set to stop the rot by beating Robredo (28%), that was but a brief respite before JCF (higher-ranked than his opponent but only picked by 19%) saw off 81% pick Isner in the biggest upset (in BOTB terms) of the day.
MTF still lead by more than a point despite having a fairly average day but BBC 606, up 2 to 2nd, have edged out BT.net, who drop 1 to 3rd. Rusedski.co.uk have gained 1 place to 4th and the top 5 is completed by TAT -they dropped 2 places to 5th but would have stayed in the top three and had the individual leader had they not picked against heavy favourite Tsonga in the last match of the day.
The large contingent of Hispanophiles on AM.com helped their team to rise 3 places to 7th with the highest average score in R3 so far, making them the fastest risers of the day.
The biggest fallers were JM.org, down 3 to 9th, and Tennisopolis, down 3 to 11th, and if they continue to fall, they may join the epic battle for the lanterne rouge currently being 'won' by Team CC, who are just behind the Ducklings.
INDIVIDUALS
Hawkeye (AM), up 28 to 1st, has taken over the lead (and finally knocked Billy the Bookie bot off his perch) after being the equal top scorer on day 6 with 6/8 correct. One point behind are 2007 USO winner amalyn (MT), up 3 to 2nd, and two more entrants who got 6/8 on Sunday, LindaB (JM) & 2008 Monte Carlo winner Linda (AM), both up 37 to 3=.
A further point back are Oploskoffie (TA), up 11 to 5th, who would have taken a 3-point lead at the top had Kohli upset Tsonga in the last match, and two more of the day's joint top scorers, Sue (TN), up 61 to 6th, and andys_ipod (AM), up 65 to 7th.
Falling a bit but hanging on in the top 10 are Scotty (TA) & Boarder35m (MT), both down 6 to 8=, and the top 10 is completed by former world no. 1 kaseldop (GR), up 13 to 10th.
ON THE RISE
Five of the 'lucky 13' who top scored with 6/8 on Sunday were mentioned as part of the new top 10 above. Three more of them moved into the top 20 - Daniel/Belgarath1981 (RF) & mataeo1983 (TA), both up 85 to 15=, srberg (DF), up 98 to 17th, while KingTiger (IN), up 99 to 113rd, moved from outside the top 200 into the top half.
The other four all rose more than 100 places - they are BenP (AM), up 103 to 28th, Duchess (CC), up 110 to 41st, defending Miami champion Lizzim (AM), up 109 to 62nd, and riser of the day emf123 (IN), up 116 to 63rd.
DODGY DROPPERS
The 'unlucky 13' entrants who got just 2/8 correct on day 6 included overnight leader Jett (AR), down 71 to 72nd, and another of the overnight top 10, Canadian WxMan (IN), down 89 to 98th.
Five of them fell more than 100 places, with BeauJarkko (TA), Tenez (CC), JTContinental (TA) & (clearly heeding yesterday's distress call from her furry friends) sallydaisy (JM), all tumbling 104 places to 154=, while mwoods (TA) fell 103 to 184th.
Despite getting one more correct than the day's dodgiest droppers, dot (IN) is now in last place on her own after tlimvvo2max (CC), up 4 to 226th, managed another dead cat bounce, but two more 2/8 scorers (vivahate (CC) & Pabbers (AM), both down 14 to 229=) are only ahead of her on tiebreak.
MONDAY PREVIEW - pick %s and 3%+ picks who are already out
SC - 1: Fish 1% v (29) F-Loppy 0% (0) C2 - 1: (13) Youzhny 60% v (19) Wawrinka 36% (Mello 3%) C2 - 2: (16) Berdbrain 74% v Zeballos 0% (0) (Simon 23%) SC - 2: (1) Fed 100% v Serra 0% (0) GC - 3: (10) Verdasco 89% v (23) Melzer 10% GC - 4: (7) Cilic 59% v (25) Baggy 41% GC - 5: (5) Sod 97% v Petzschner 0% (1) (Tipsy 3%) SC - 5: (9) Gonzo 90% v (22) Monaco 10%
So, most of us have 7 live matches today, with Cilic v Baggy and Youzhny v Stani the main swing matches and Simon pickers the biggest group in need of damage limitation in a match they cannot score for. The two who have picked Fish to reach the last 16 are Saturday night leader Jett (AR) and the entrant who was in last place until Tsonga's win, Petzchner's Left Thumb (IN), who is also the only entrant who has picked Philipp to win his match too.
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
Monday was mercifully free of big shocks, with all of the majority picks (in Fish's case, the majority by just 2 entrants to 0) winning, but because Cilic (59%), Youzhny (60%) and Berdbrain (74%) had been picked by a clear but not overwhelming majority, there were some big moves in both the team and individual tables.
MTF finished Monday on top for the fourth day in a row but their lead has been cut to half a point by the fast-rising TAT team, who climbed 3 places to 2nd. However, R3 was won by joint fastest risers the Feddies, up 3 to 3rd, though they are still over a point adrift of the (po)TATers.
BT.net and Rusedski.co.uk both dropped back a place, to 4th and 5th respectively, but by far the biggest fallers of the day were R3 lanternes rouges BBC 606, down 5 to 7th.
The only other teams to move more than one place were R3 runners up the Daily Forehand, up 2 to 8th, and JM.org, down 2 to 11th, though they are still over 2/3 of a point clear of the tight battle for last place between the Ducklings and current lanternes rouges Team CC.
INDIVIDUALS
The 'linda mafia' (which oddly enough means 'beautiful mafia' in Spanish) climbed 2 places to 1= and in case anyone is wondering, I can confirm that LindaB (JM) and former world no. 1 Linda (AM) are definitely different people, so they are not breaking the one entry per person rule.
5 of the 7 entrants who joint top scored in R3 with 13/16 correct are now in the top 10. As well as the joint leaders, Sue (TN), up 3 to 3rd, Daniel/Belgarath1981 (RF), up 8 to 7th, and srberg (DF), up 9 to 8th, all managed this.
The top 10 is completed by Scotty (TA) (TA), up 4 to 4th, another former world no. 1 kaseldop (GR), up 5 to 5th, British_is_Best (BT), up 6 to 6th, mattk77 (SG), up 9 to 9th, and Akhenaten (BT) & yet another former world no. 1 cazza99 (AM), both up 10 to 10=. Overnight leader Hawkeye (AM) had a bit of a 'mare, getting just 4/8 correct and dropping to 47th place.
The bots are having what appears to be their best ever tournament at the moment - Billy the Bookie is level on points with the two leaders, while Roberta the rankings bot & Average Joe are also in the top 35. A combination of the favourites winning most of the matches and the shocks being huge shocks (rather than, say, shocks in 70:30 matches where a significant number of entrants would steal a march on them) is always likely to suit the automated entrants.
ON THE RISE
About 60 entrants equal top scored on Monday with 7/8 correct, which meant lots of big moves up but no three-figure rises. The riser of the day was Jennifer3164 (AR), up 66 to 116th, closely followed by bojek (RF), up 64 to 97=, SuperBrat (IN), up 63 to 85=, Golden Lady (AM), up 63 to 95=, and Biggles (IN), up 63 to 104th.
There were also rises of 60 places or more for Dark_Necrofear (CC), up 62 to 100=, and TennisAnyone74 (TA), up 61 to 122=, nicki (AM), up 60 to 81st, and GVGirl (TA) & indiana (BT), both up 60 to 109=. The remaining two equal top scorers in R3, Duchess (CC), up 18 to 23rd, and emf123 (IN), up 30 to 33rd, also deserve a mention.
DODGY DROPPERS
Fitz (JM), down 57 to 226th, was the only entrant who failed to get at least 3/8 on Monday, but the biggest fallers were some of the eight entrants who only just managed that - Deathless Mortal (MT), down 106 to 186th, and Ace! (AM), down 104 to 187th, were most in need of a parachute, while despite being one of just two entrants who picked Fish to reach the L16, over-predicting shocks means that Petzchner's Left Thumb (IN), down 3 to 231st, has now taken over the lanterne rouge spot with his winner pick now gone too.
The gorillas are close to starvation now, but the remarkable mercy dash of their oldest friend sallydaisy (JM) continues - she has raced down 168 places from 50th to 218th in just two days! How she manages to predict when a mercy dash will be needed most before the tournament even starts is beyond me! Actually, I do have an inkling how this works - she tends to over-predict shocks in the middle rounds, and when the shocks stop happening and the majority start picking up points in most of the matches is when the gorillas tend to fall behind.
OUTLOOK
Just four entrants have 7 quarter-finalists still standing going into R4 - they are srberg (DF) in 8th place, Oploskoffie (TA) in 36=, Gemma (AM) in 64= and WimbledonAce (AM) in 71=. In all four cases, Muzza is the one they have lost but they all have Almagro in the QFs where most of us had Nole.
The vast majority of us (including the rest of the top 10) have 5 or 6 left and nobody has less than 3.
Cilic v Verdasco is the big swing match of the day, followed by Sod v Gonzo, where Gonzo (a 3% pick to reach the semis cf. 23% for the Sod) would be the better winner for those who picked Muzza to go deep unless they both picked Sod to reach the QFs and hold out hopes of the Youzhny v Fish winner beating him there. A small majority of us will be hoping against hope that the Mosquito can suck the blood out of Tsonga's challenge to limit the damage he caused by beating Isner in R3.
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!