2010 Australian Open 'Battle of the Boards' pick 'em

steven · Tennis legend

RE: 2010 Australian Open 'Battle of the Boards' pick 'em

steven · Tennis legend

AUSTRALIAN OPEN BOTB - DAY 10 'SYNDICATED' REPORT

The 20% who picked Kolya to reach the semis looked like they were onto a winner for a set and a bit, but Fed was never going to let his slam semi streak be broken easily and probably believed more when it mattered. In the other match, the quality of tennis was nowhere near as high but 12% pick Tsonga bagged the upset when Nole was hampered by illness in the latter part of the match.

Full results, which are getting updated regularly except at the (unpredictable) times when I'm asleep can be found at http://www.britishtennis.net/Competitions.html

TEAMS

AM.com finished another day in 1st place by nearly a point thanks to Tsonga's win, though TAT (who will be hoping for a damage-limiting win for Cilic tomorrow given that lots of them went for Rafa) edged ahead of them for a while after Fed's win. JM.org, still in 3rd, are within another point but there is then a gap of well over a point back to Rusedski.co.uk, up 1 to 4th, MTF, down 1 to 5th, and BT.net in 6th.

The biggest gainers today were, not surprisingly, the Feddies, up 3 to 8th, but three teams that had mixed fortunes today ended up equal top for the QF round, each with an average of exactly 10/20 - Tennis-Warehouse, up 1 to 7th, BBC 606, down 1 to 10th, and T4Y, unchanged in 13th. Only the Daily Forehand, down 2 to 9th, fell more than one place.

INDIVIDUAL TOP 10

Congratulations to JGS (IN), whose 2/2 today means he is a massive 8 points clear of the field despite not winning the QF round - he is now certain to win the individual title by between 3 and 12 points, a stunning performance in such a large field.

Charlie02123 (TA), still in 2nd, picked Nole to win the tournament so got 1/2 today and nobody else within reach had both Tsonga and Fed in the semis. JAMES4578 (JM), up 7 to 3rd, did have both of them, and is one of three entrants who managed to get all four semi-finalists correct, as well as being the highest placed entrant who picked Muzza to win. motennis (TN), up 21 to 9th today, is the second and we will come to the third a bit later ...

Imoen (BT), up 12 to 5th, mikeindo (TN), up 13 to 6th, matchpoint26 (RF), up 16 to 7th, motennis (TN), up 21 to 9th, and Sparkey (GB), up 21 to 10th, have all joined the top 10 after getting 2/2 today, while EdTennisFan (BB), down 1 to 4th, and hfwardhouse (AM), down 4 to 8th, have held onto places in the top 10 despite getting one wrong today.

ON THE RISE

With the lanterne rouge firmly imprisoned in the gorillas' cage, sallydaisy (JM), up 114 to 204th, clearly felt free to do a very uncharacteristic jump away from them all the way up into the top half of the table. Yes, she was the mysterious third entrant mentioned above who got all of the semi-finalists correct, very well done to her!

She shares the 'riser of the day' tag with Dusty (IN), up 114 to 205th, while the following also rose 110 places or more - MissSospanFach (CC), up 112 to 109th, nonobobo (RG), up 110 to 137th, patrick (TA), up 110 to 148th, Chloe F (RF), up 113 to 151st, Origmarm (TW), up 112 to 168th, Sound (AM), up 112 to 187th, and RedCabbage (BT), up 113 to 201st.

DODGY DROPPERS

About 100 entrants failed to score today. Many of them fell around 90 places with world no. 1 kaseldop (GR), down 96 to 213rd, falling the most, closely followed by nelslus (TA) & BIG MACK ESQ (TN), both down 95 to 218=.

SEMI-FINALS

Thu: (5) Murray 34% v (14) Cilic 2% (Rafa 30%, Potty 21%, Duckboy 11%, others 2%)
Fri: (1) Fed 62% v (10) Tsonga 1% (Nole 19%, Kolya 13%, Sod 2%, Hewitt 1%, Verdy 1%, Others 1%)

N.B. Position changes will be shown on the tables for the semis as a whole over the next two days and the next report will follow on Friday after the second SF.

TEAM KO

Finals - latest scores after 4 of 7 matches:

FINAL: (4) TalkAboutTennis are tied with (2) MensTennisForums 6.67-6.67
3-4: (6) JamieMurray.org lead (9) AndyMurray.com 8.24-7.77
5-6: (16) RogerFederer.com lead (7) RichardGasquet.net 8.2-6.36
7-8: (3) Rusedski.co.uk lead (5) GBTennisGirls.com 7.81-5.71
9-10: (15) Tennis4you.com lead (1) BritishTennis.net 10-7.78
11-12: (12) The Daily Forehand lead (11) AndyRoddick.com 7.86-6.19
13-14: (13) Tennis-Warehouse lead (14) Centre Court Forum 10-6.43
15-16: (8) BBC 606 boards lead (10) LleytonHewitt.biz 10-5

steven · Tennis legend

SPOILER ALERT! - if you want the rest of the tournament to be a complete surprise in BOTB terms, please stop reading now!

OUTLOOK - TOP THREES (E&OE)

TEAMS

AM.com will win the teams league in all scenarios that do not involve Fed winning the title - if he does, the Feddies will win.

If Fed beats Murray in the Final, AM.com will finish 2nd, with JM.org finishing 2nd in all other scenarios in which Muzza reaches the Final. TAT will be the runners up if Cilic reaches the Final unless he gets beaten by Fed there, in which case Tennis-Warehouse will finish 2nd.

If Tsonga plays Cilic in the Final, JM.org will finish 3rd, BT.net will do so if Murray beats Tsonga there and the Feddies will complete the top three if Cilic beats Fed. In all other scenarios, Rusedski.co.uk will take the final place on the podium.

INDIVIDUALS

As I mentioned above, an amazing run from BOTB debutant JGS (IN) means that he will win the AO individual BOTB title whatever happens in the last three matches.

If Muzza wins the title, JAMES4578 (AM) will finish 2nd with EdTennisFan (BB) 3rd. The former will finish 3rd if Tsonga beats Muzza in the Final (when Charlie02123 (TA) will be the runner-up) or if Cilic beats Fed, in which case Irena2 (TA) will finish 2nd, as she will if it is the same Final with the opposite result, in which case Daniel/Belgarath1981 (RF) will complete the top three.

If Fed beats Muzza in the Final, mikeindo (TA) will finish 2nd with Roy (GR) 3rd but if neither of them reach the Final, Kolya-to-win picker Deathless Mortal (MT) will somewhat appropriately rise from the dead to finish 2nd with Charlie02123 (TA) completing the top three.

OTHERS

Even if you don't figure in the possible top threes, all the other places in the top 10 (50/100/top half ... whatever you might be targetting now) are up for grabs, and the precise results of the last three matches could have a big effect on where you appear in the post-AO rankings, even if you can't score any more points yourself, in which case a Cilic v Tsonga Final would limit any further damage.

Count Zero · Tennis legend

(E&OE)

you think that will save you.....

steven · Tennis legend

No, but I'm fairly confident what I wrote there was correct (apart from getting team codes wrong for two of the players, which they've pointed out on their own boards), so hopefully that will!

-- Edited by steven on Thursday 28th of January 2010 02:22:50 PM

steven · Tennis legend

AUSTRALIAN OPEN BOTB - SEMI-FINALS 'SYNDICATED' REPORT

62% pick Fed and 34% pick Muzza made the Final in convincing style, meaning that 58% of us still have a possibility of scoring points in the Final itself, though personally I will be hoping not to!

Full results can be found at http://www.britishtennis.net/Competitions.html

TEAMS

AM.com tightened their grip on 1st place and now lead by nearly 4 points, though they will still get overtaken by the Feddies, up 3 to 5th after the SFs, if their man wins the title because 23/25 of them have picked him to do so. Funnily enough though, it is the brave Feddie (off with his head! *wink*) who predicted Muzza to win the title who is their top scorer at the moment!

Rusedski.co.uk (defending 2nd place points in both the league and KO) still seem very likely to lose their no. 1 ranking after the AO, but they are not going down without a fight, top scoring in the semis to move up 2 to 2nd. However, they will finish 3rd whoever wins the Final because JM.org, still in 3rd after the semis, will overtake them if Muzza wins.

BT.net moved up 2 places to 4th and BBC 606 up 2 to 8th, both thanks mainly to Andy's win, while TAT dropped 4 to 6th as their tendency to have gone for Rafa over the Muzzanator really began to bite. MTF also fell 4 places, in their case to 9th.

INDIVIDUAL TOP 10

JGS (IN)'s unassailable lead has grown to 10 points - he will win by 12 points (gaining 2x843 ranking points) if Fed wins the Final, by 3 points (gaining 2x798 ranking points) otherwise, entering the overall rankings just outside the top 300 either way but far more importantly setting himself up very well for an assault on the top of the rankings over the course of 2010.

Charlie02123 (TA) was the only member of the pre-SFs top 9 who did not get both finalists right and as a result, he has dropped 7 to 9th, with JAMES4578 (JM), EdTennisFan (BB), Imoen (BT), mikeindo (TN), matchpoint26 (RF), hfwardhouse (AM) and motennis (TN) all moving up one place to 2nd-8th respectively as a result, while Roy (GR), up 2 to 10th, is the only new face in the top 10 after the semi-finals, displacing Sparkey (GB), down 15 to 25th.

OUTLOOK

The top 4 will not change if Muzza wins the title but mikeindo (TN) will finish 2nd and Roy (GR) 3rd if Fed wins, with all of the Muzza to win pickers dropping outside the top 10 in that case.

ON THE RISE

Nearly 100 entrants got both finalists correct, with Tabbles (CC), up 121 to 171st, riser of the round Enia (AM), up 125 to 173rd, AllyB (JM), up 120 to 208th, and Swissgirl (IN), up 120 to 224th, all up 120+ places.

DODGY DROPPERS

Over 100 entrants failed to get either finalist correct, with Randy (IN), down 116 to 231st, and liam_valid (CC), down 115 to 232nd, the ones most in need of a good parachute.

FINAL

Sun: (1) Fed 40% v (5) Murray 18% (Rafa 12%, Nole 9%, Duckboy 7%, Potty 6%, Kolya 5%, Sod 1%, others 2%)

Fed and Muzza were actually the two most picked finalists, even though Average Joe has Rafa as his finalist pick because Rafa was 50%-48% favourite to win the Rafa-Muzza QF.

TEAM KO

Finals - latest scores after 6 of 7 matches:

FINAL: (4) TalkAboutTennis lead (2) MensTennisForums 11.04-10.67
3-4: (9) AndyMurray.com lead (6) JamieMurray.org 15.15-14.59
5-6: (16) RogerFederer.com lead (7) RichardGasquet.net 15.64-11.27
7-8: (3) Rusedski.co.uk lead (5) GBTennisGirls.com 15.69-10
9-10: (15) Tennis4you.com lead (1) BritishTennis.net 16-14.71
11-12: (12) The Daily Forehand lead (11) AndyRoddick.com 13.86-10.76
13-14: (13) Tennis-Warehouse lead (14) Centre Court Forum 17.2-11.14
15-16: (8) BBC 606 boards lead (10) LleytonHewitt.biz 17.5-9.8

As far as I can tell, none of the leaders above can be overtaken whichever way the Final goes, so congratulations to TAT on winning the team KO!

steven · Tennis legend

POST-2010 AUSTRALIAN OPEN PICK 'EM RANKINGS

The overall ranking list (with 791 ranked players, up 27 since Paris) and the pick 'em 'Hall of Fame' after the 2010 Australian Open can now be found at http://www.britishtennis.net/Competitions.html

TEAMS

After winning the teams league for the fourth slam in a row, the Feddies have moved up 2 places to take a narrow lead in the team rankings, a somewhat inevitable consequence of a board's favourite player winning three of the last four slams when virtually all of his team pick him to win every time, though funnily enough, the top scoring Feddie at the AO was the 'traitor' who had picked Muzza to win!

TAT did enough to overtake the previous no. 1s and indeed their AO team KO win put over 100 points between them and Rusedski.co.uk, down 2 to 3rd, but Fed's win in the AO final meant that they were pipped to the no. 1 spot by just 20 points. They look very well placed to take over at the top if Fed slips up in one of the slams though.

Muzza's run to the Final helped BT.net, up 2 to 4th, AM.com, up 3 to 5th, and JM.org, up 2 to 7th, to make progress, while Team CC, down 1 to 6th, and BBC 606, down 1 to 8th, dropped back slightly but stayed in the top 8.

The fastest risers were MTF, up 3 to 9th, and the biggest fallers Tennisopolis, down 6 to 10th.

NEW TOP 10

The top 10 has a new look after most of the previous top ten failed to finish in the top half at the AO and those that did tended to have been defending lots of points in the first place.

Shabba (IN) soars 19 places to become the new world no. 1 after finishing 15th at the AO and having started out with no points to defend, not to mention one of the lowest 7th best scores to replace of anyone in the top 20.

He is nearly 200 points ahead of Ace! (AM), up 8 to a career high 2nd place. He had no points to defend and the lowest 7th best score of anyone in the top 20 before the AO, and a top quartile performance at the AO allowed him to build on the fact that he is the only entrant to have finished in the top 10 of three different pick 'ems in the last 12 months - RG and two Masters events.

Just 1 point further back, Jose Javier/Buyaka86 (RF) is still in the top three but is probably disappointed at missing such a good chance to become no. 1 - 44th place at the AO would have done it for him, but he finished outside the top half in 272nd. Like the new no. 1, he has top 10 finishes in both a slam and a Masters plus a top 20 finish in another slam to his name in the last 12 months - the new top three are the only entrants with three Masters top 10s and/or slam top 20s in their rankings.

A top 40 finish at the AO for the second year in a row kept Dentist Appointment (IN) in 4th place, while an 8th place finish means that Steven (GR) (that'll be me!) regained 13 places to complete the top 5.

Portsey (BT), up 15 to 6th, AO 'bronze medallist' Roy (GR), up 66 to 8th, and Oploskoffie (TA), up 36 to 9th, have all hit new career highs but Jtdrum (TA) has dropped back 1 place to 7th, while pre-2009 USO world no. 1 goldfish (BT), back up 16 to 10th, completes the new top 10.

OLD TOP 10

timmadigan (CC), down 17 to 22nd, Lizzim (AM), down 28 to 35th, mathiasR (RF), down 6 to 14th, and Miffy (AM), down 22 to 31st, all slipped out of the top 10 after failing to defend points from last year's AO, but the biggest drops out of the top 10 were reserved for year end no. 1 kaseldop (GR), who has suffered a dramatic fall of 47 places to 48th from the no. 1 spot he occupied for most of the second half of 2009, and year-end no. 3 timmadigan (CC), down 51 to 54th.

ON THE RISE

The biggest risers into the overall top 20 are GVGirl (TA), up 77 to 11th, and Charlie02123 (TA), up 77 to 13th. Meanwhile, the fastest climber into the top 30 is TimS (GR), up 120 to 21st and ycpg (MT), up 171 to 42nd, is the fastest riser into the top 50 after finishing 9th at the AO.

Four more entrants have moved up more than 100 places into the top 100 - t12j23r90 (AM), up 114 to 81st after finishing 10th at the AO, Canadian WxMan (IN), up 111 to 91st, Hen (MT), up 155 to 93rd, and nicki (AM), up 149 to 96th after finishing 6th at the AO.

The fastest riser into the top 200 is S&V (BT), up 156 to 159th after finishing 7th at the AO, while the fastest riser into the top 250 is Aymen Hag (LH), up 187 to 248th after finishing 4th at the AO.

The biggest jump of all though came from AO 5th place finisher freerider (BT), who has shot up 335 places to 304th, while the highest new entrant is of course AO winner JGS (IN), in at 297th.

LAST YEAR'S AO WINNERS

The big fallers are usually those who didn't play in the latest pick 'em and are running out of counting scores, so when looking at fallers it's probably more interesting to see how the top three in the event coming off from last year have fared.

Last year's AO winner Reb (IN) clearly decided to retire on a high and has dropped out of the rankings from 319th place. 2009 AO runner-up emf123 (IN) managed a top half finish at this year's AO, but has still dropped 89 to 103rd, while 2009 AO 3rd place finisher Hev (IN), down 79 to 165th, has also fallen out of the top 100.

RANKING TWINS

The 'who is your ATP ranking twin' list will reappear just before the next event we run a pick 'em for, which will probably be Miami, though there is a slight possibility that we will do IW instead this year - I will confirm one way or the other in the next week or so.