Boggo is only entry so far in Aus Open but deadline is still 3 weeks away

Baker has chosen Glasgow over Aus qualification. Understandable but a shame given how well he played in Aus a few weeks ago

I would guess that if Jamie had been certain to get into qualifying there is a good chance that he would have pitched up.

But it does look as if his current ranking of 315 could be pretty borderline, and in these circumstances it does probably make sense to forget it and fix on a definite schedule for early 2010.  I think such a plan is also more likely to pull in early ranking points to help him to more easily get into Challengers.

This was what Steven posted before Aus Open 2009 :

"Recent AO Q cuts when the entry lists came out and after w/ds:

2008 original 273 final ???
2007 orig. c. 280 final 311
2006 original 279 final 295 (*)
2005 original 274 final 380
2004 original 267 final 434

(*) Bloomers is ranked 295 and Slabba 296

The really extreme cuts happened when loads of players in the Alt list opted out late on because they didn't want to risk going to Aus on the off-chance and then one or two very late withdrawals allowed Aussies who were way down on the Alt list to get in at the last moment, but even so the 'true' cut in 2004 and 2005 was about 310.

Even if you allow for the original cut being lower last year, these figures suggest that in 4 of the last 5 years, anyone in the top 300 at the cut-off date who wanted to play in qualifying got in fairly comfortably in the end. Remember that as well as qualifying w/ds creating extra spaces in the qualifying draw, main draw w/ds and most main draw WCs create extra spaces too, so it's not surprising that the cut tends to drop so far.

So, I'd say there's no way Wardy won't get in and a better than even chance that Bloomers and Slabba will if they have bothered to enter."


Slabba did get in in 2009 ( I don't know what the cut ended up as ), but note WR 315 was not good enough in 2007 or 2008 and the "true" cut in 2005 and 2006 was about 310 with only very late withdrawlals replaced by locals giving the large cut figure.  It doesn't to me really make sense unfortunately for Jamie to plan on going there, certainly unless he otherwise wished to be based in Australia about that time, with ultimately only what looks like maybe at best about a 50 / 50 chance of getting into qualifying.

Anyway, Glasgow is lovely in January

-- Edited by indiana on Friday 11th of December 2009 02:55:23 PM

"(*) Bloomers is ranked 295 and Slabba 296"

Have no idea what rankings you are looking at!!

Wardy has not entered anywhere so I'm wondering if he is still unwell

the cuts? eh?

"So, I'd say there's no way Wardy won't get in and a better than even chance that Bloomers and Slabba will if they have bothered to enter."

So what does this mean then!!..They have not got a hope of getting in

You do realise, seagull, that everything from "Recent AO Q cuts when..." to "...that Bloomers and Slabba will if they have bothered to enter"  comes from my quotation of a post by Steven from December 2008 that I quoted really just to give an idea of how borderline Jamie's current 315 ranking is.

In that, Steven was saying that Bloomers and Slabba, ranked 295 and 296 at that time ( not now ! ) had a better than even chance of getting in, which was true since Slabba did get into the 2009 Australian Open.  Your quote is from my quote of Steven's quote   of Bloomers and Slabba's chances of getting into the Aus Open Q 2009.

I thought my post was reasonably clear if read through fully, apologies if not as clear as I thought.

The only folk with a ranking that is realistic for qualifying in 2010 are Bogdanovic, Evans, Ward, Goodall and Baker, the last 2 ( currently ranked 310 and 315 ) would seem extremely borderline.

Edit :  Ah, Steven beat me to it 

-- Edited by indiana on Friday 11th of December 2009 11:05:32 PM