2009 Shanghai Masters BOTB pick 'em - very tight entry window

wolf · Tennis legend

RE: 2009 Shanghai Masters BOTB pick 'em - very tight entry window

Josh · Challenger level

First time entering as an over 18 smile

The Knight · Challenger qualifying

Josh wrote:

First time entering as an over 18

Steven will buy you a drink if you finish top 10 biggrin

Josh · Challenger level

As much chance as Boggo playing the next DC tie I think. I'm pretty sure I am about last of the people who have played enough times to fill all the spots in their ranking blankstare

-- Edited by Josh on Saturday 10th of October 2009 10:06:05 PM

steven · Tennis legend

Josh wrote:

As much chance as Boggo playing the next DC tie I think. I'm pretty sure I am about last of the people who have played enough times to fill all the spots in their ranking

Not even close! Since you haven't played every tournament in the past year, I assume you mean last out of those with 7 counting scores. If so, the last of them is andrewjshields of the Feddies in 593rd (you're in 411th) - his best ranking point score is 186 (about 2/3 of the way down the field), that's the one coming off after Shanghai (i.e. Madrid last year) and none of his other scores are in 3 figures.

The worst placed out of all the people who have entered every tournament in the last 12 months (so have 13 scores to choose their best 7 from) is of course serial gorilla-botherer Sallydaisy from AM.com in 550th - her only top half finish in the last 12 months was Madrid 2008 too and she has finished in the bottom 10 of three of the last four slams - in the fourth, she finished in the bottom 20. ashamed

Happy 18th anyway, whenever it was!

The Knight · Challenger qualifying

i go crazy for Verdasco every pick'em, no idea why. Got him getting to the semis this time

Josh · Challenger level

Well I know I'm not great at them! I haven't really followed the ATP tour at all since the US Open so most of my picks were complete guesses. Wouldn't be surprised if I had my best result this year.

imoen · Admin: Moderator+Tennis Legend

The Knight wrote:

i go crazy for Verdasco every pick'em, no idea why. Got him getting to the semis this time

I'm so glad it's not just me, I don't know what it is about Verdasco, but something just compells me to pick him, though I suffered under a similar problem with Hewitt this time so have him beating Verdasco for the quarter final spot. No idea why, I don't even like Hewitt.

As for seeing Blake/Karolvic and thinking Oh no, here we go again - definitely. In fact this was a nightmare to pick, possibly not helped by the fact it was late at night and I wasn't really doing any research.

And of course there was the realising half-way through that this wasn't in fact an indoor masters - where I got that idea from is anyone's guess.

Oh well, I haven't had a bad picked since Wimbledon it must be time to go see the gorillas again, I'm sure they miss me - can I blame them if my picks are wrong?

Of course I am on 1/1 for the day so far so it's not all bad.

mjd · Challenger qualifying

Live scores HERE

Strange that they are playing MD matches while qualifying matches are still being played!

Beck beat Acasuso (ret) smile

Zeng beat Dudi Sela ashamed

-- Edited by mjd on Sunday 11th of October 2009 12:11:16 PM

Portsey · Intermediate Club Player

I admit, the Karlovic/Blake match-up did make me wonder, i tend to not do well outside of the grand slams. But the one that got me was Cilic/Berdych. I always pick Berdych to do well (never win of course) but Cilic is beating everyone at the moment, but Berdych beat him in 5 sets last month (DC) and didn't choke, but choking is a Czech trait. I know now i've picked him to win, Cilic will win the deciding tie-breaker. Don't choke Berdbrain!

My girlfriend has just read this and would like to add the following comment:

"Just remember that all Czech people are GREAT! Ok?......."

Silver · County player

HOW did Zeng beat Sela? HOW? I demand answers or I will inflict the dreaded GINGIVITIS on people.

Portsey · Intermediate Club Player

Silver wrote:

HOW did Zeng beat Sela? HOW? I demand answers or I will inflict the dreaded GINGIVITIS on people.

My money's on Chinese Voodoo, they stare across the net very well, Sela is obviously of a weak mind..........

steven · Tennis legend

I knew I was going to regret promising to get back to doing daily reports for Shanghai, but silly me promised anyway, so here goes!

SHANGHAI MASTERS BOTB - DAY 1 'SYNDICATED' REPORT

194 people (plus 4 robot players) and 9 teams with 5 or more entrants are taking part in the BOTB for Shanghai.

It's not a big surprise that this is the lowest number of entrants and full teams for any pick 'em this year, given the time zone this tournament is in, the Sunday start, the ridiculously late main draw and the fact that the two players in the top five that usually provide big teams have withdrawn from the tournament!

Given all that, I am pleasantly surprised that entries are 9% up on Madrid 2008 and it says a lot for the commitment of BOTB entrants that our Shanghai entries are 'only' down 29% on Montréal whereas ATP Bracket Challenge entries are down 39%. So many thanks to all of you who managed to get entries done in time and commiserations to those caught out by the ridiculously short entry window, which is obviously beyond our control.

The top two teams in the overall rankings did particularly well in terms of numbers - Team GR actually managed more entrants than for Montréal and TAT entries held up well, making them the equal biggest team with AM.com after the latter's entries dropped quite a bit.

DAY 1

Day 1 saw just four of the R1 matches get played, with wins for narrow favourites F-Loppy (picked by 62%) and Beck (56%) and shock wins for Kunitsyn (23%) in the battle of the Igors and Chinese WC Zeng (13%), both Andreev and Sela muppeting away their matches from a set up. There may be plenty more upsets to come because R1 has a remarkably high number of matches where the majority pick and the bookies' favourite is behind in the H2H.

Detailed results can be found at http://www.britishtennis.net/competitions.html and from now on they will be updated regularly each day (after I wake up, at least!), with 'headlines' appearing on http://twitter.com/botb1 as well.

TEAMS

In a hint of a return to their old R1 form, MTF lead after day 1, though no full team has an adjusted score above 50%. They are followed by BT.net and Rusedski.co.uk.

Meanwhile, two of the top four teams in the overall rankings (no. 1 team TAT in 7th and no. 4 team Team CC in 8th) are in the bottom three, though both are ahead of TAT offshoot The Daily Forehand, who are currently bringing up the rear.

INDIVIDUALS

With two big shocks and the other winners each picked by less than 2/3 of the entrants, only two people managed to get a perfect 4/4 on day 1 - congratulations to elisat (TA) & PaulM (GB), who share the lead!

22 people headed by world no. 10 timmadigan (CC), but also including serial gorilla-bothererer sallydaisy (JM) and newbie Bumpington (GR), are a point behind. They are followed by 75 others plus all the bots on 2/4, but an unprecedented 95 entrants are in the gorillas' cage and 20 unfortunate souls, including world no. 1 kaseldop (GR) and former world no. 1 Pebs (MP), have not even managed to get off the mark yet!

WINNER PICKS

With Fed and Muzza out, lots of people have had to be more imaginative about potential winners this time. On the ATP BC, Potty is the narrow favourite to win with 33.1% followed by Nole in 31.1% and the bookies' favourite Rafa on 17.0%. The BOTB winner picks show a bit of variation from this:

33% Nole
29% Potty
20% Rafa
7% Duckboy
5% Tsonga
3% Cilic
1 each for Hewitt, Verdasco, Sod, Kolya & Simon

Other finalist picks are Haas, Gonzo, JCF, Dammit & Monfils.

(for a nicknames guide, see http://www.andymurray.com/forum/showthread.php?t=253)

QUOTES OF THE DAY

Shanghai doesn't really seem to have caught the imagination yet (a lot of the forums seem unusually empty at the moment, not just on their BOTB threads), so there weren't exactly rich pickings to be had in the quotes stakes over the weekend, with a large number of posts being variations on the themes of "oh no, I missed the deadline" and "I've got a horrible feeling I'm on 0/4 at the moment ..."

Wolf (BT) echoed the thoughts of many of us about the draw: "Did anyone else see Karlovic v Blake at the top of the list and just think oh god here we go again?" ... and it didn't get much better after that either!

cloudy (AM) apologises in advance: "I don't know quite how it happened but I somehow have Davydenko winning. oops sorry team." ... then decides that getting an excuse in early might be a better option: "I have Davy winning my pickem and Tsonga winning the bracket. Can I say I was a bit drunk when I filled it in?"

Imoen (BT) made the same mistake as me ... and how many others, I wonder, and how many of them still haven't realised, for that matter: "Of course there was the realising half-way through that this wasn't in fact an indoor masters - where I got that idea from is anyone's guess."

Portsey (BT) thinks he may have worked out why Sela lost: "My money's on Chinese Voodoo, they stare across the net very well, Sela is obviously of a weak mind.........." - slandering both players in a match in the same sentence is quite impressive, I think!

Pebs (MP) fears the worst - "I do believe all my picks so far have gone out .... why do I play? Oh yes, the humilation and chance to get my **** roundly whipped - who could resist that???" - who indeed? In fact, neither of the MP girls have scored a point yet ...

steven · Tennis legend

SHANGHAI MASTERS BOTB - DAY 2 'SYNDICATED' REPORT

N.B. Although day 3 is now under way, these comments all relate to positions during and at the end of day 2.

Day 2 saw three wins for qualifiers, Fognini against Gulbis, whom only 8% had picked to lose without knowing who the qualifier would be, Mayer against Petzschner, whom only 11% had picked to lose, and Schuettler beating Vassallo Arguello, whom 40% had expected to lose.

There were no other big upsets, so the other important matches were those with a fairly split picks, Flake (49%) beating Ivo, Beck (56%) beating Chucho, Count Duckula (63%) beating the Mosquito and Pics (67%) beating Dammit.

(for a nicknames guide, see http://www.andymurray.com/forum/showthread.php?t=253)

Detailed results can be found at http://www.britishtennis.net/competitions.html

TEAMS

The relatively unchanged look of the teams league at the end of the day belies the fact that teams were flying up and down the table all day!

All 6 entrants on the MTF team went for Dammit, so they dived from 1st to 7th when Pics beat him, but they also went for Vass.-Arg. to lose in a big way, so they shot back up to the top when Schuettler won and ended the day where they began it, in 1st place.

Just 0.08 behind them, JM.org, up 2 to 2nd, were the only team to end the day higher than they started, displacing BT.net, down 1 to 3rd, and Rusedski.co.uk, down 1 to 4th.

Unlike the leaders, AM.com went for Pics in a big way (36/41), so his win enabled them to rise to the top, but the vast majority of them also went for Vass.-Arg. to win, so they then plummeted to back where they started in 6th. However they, the Feddies (unchanged in 5th) and the teams in 2nd-4th are covered by just 0.13 points!

The other teams are all unchanged, but lanternes rouges TheDailyForehand are now further adrift of Team CC in 2nd last place than they are behind the leaders!

INDIVIDUALS

We had 11 joint leaders for a while, then 10 and then 4, but 3 of them went for JCF, so Radek's win saw Jose Javier/Buyaka86 (RF), up 24 to 1st, become the first person to have an outright lead in this contest. With the equal top score of 10/11 for the day, he held onto that lead and finished the day on 12/15 overall.

However, no less than 17 entrants are breathing down his neck, just a point behind in 2= - PaulM (GB) moving down 1 with 7/11 on day 2, emf123 (IN), Scotsguy (CC), Drop-Shot (TA), Scotty (TA) (TA), James Comerford (BB), Rusedski149 (GR), Silver (BT) & Jett (AR) all moving up 1 with 8/10 on day 2, cazza99 (AM), T. x (CC), janeInScotland (JM), Smidster (BT), Yorkie (AM), anne (IN), MACBORG (CC) all moving up 23 with 9/11 on day 2 and BHar11 (TA) moving up 98 with 10/11 on day 2.

ON THE RISE

The biggest riser of the day by far was the third entrant who equal top scored with 10/11 (the other two have already been mentioned) - DJ (MP) started the day on 0 but got the first 10 results correct to soar 156 places to 19=.

The only other 3-figure rises came from Fitz (JM) and WallaceEMann (GR), both up 109 to 66=.

DODGY DROPPERS

The only 3-figure drop came from GoGo (AM), down 144 to 169=. Only she, Tenez (CC), vchap (LH) & Sabrina215 (IN) got less than 50% correct on day 2. The latter three all dropped 82 to 182= and they are among the dozen entrants currently sharing last place with the world no. 1 on 6/15 overall.

26 entrants are in the gorillas' cage at the moment and 45 more are at the cage door.

QUOTES OF THE DAY

Predictably, the MP girls weren't too happy with me for pointing out that they had drawn a blank on day 1:

DJ (MP) "Yeah, thanks for that reminder steven. i'll have you know that both pebs and i made logical, rational choices. it's just we forgot that the players are completely illogical, irrational muppets!"
Pebs (MP) "Yeah!... hang on... did we?"
DJ (MP) "Ssssh......just play along hun, keep up the pretence that we know something about tennis......"
Pebs (MP) "That would be a lot easier to do without a nil point score... *strops off to shower*"

None of us expected Zverev to beat Gonzo, but he very nearly did before injuring his thumb and eventually having to retire from the match. Rondun (AM) summed it up very well: "One hand, one leg, the wrong shoes and he was still beating him!"

A couple of prominent Murray fans couldn't resist attempting to come up with BT.net standard puns when they saw the name of Marat's opponent:

Sallydaisy (JM) "I see Safin's going for a Gong ............."
ASE (AM) "Safin is serving for the match. So he's GOiNG, GOiNG, GONG"

Some work needed there, I feel ...

A recalcitrant Latvian came in for a fair bit of stick. ASE (AM) "didn't realise that the muppet show was broadcast in Latvia." and when I suggested that maybe Daddy Gulbis should stop letting Ernests use his private jet until he started showing a bit more commitment, he added: "I agree about the plane, steven. Ernie should stick to his milk cart."

tlimvvo2max (CC) "I had a good day, but I swear to you I'm never going to pick Gulbis to win again even if he gets drawn against a blind chipmunk with confidence issues."

Former no. 1 Linda (AM) seems to be having confidence issues herself: "When I was filling in my Bracket, I was looking at what the majority picks were and thinking to myself, 'people are making some very strange picks this time', as I seemed to be with the minority for a lot of them. I now realise that it was me making the strange picks." Oops!

BOTB does make you do the oddest things:

fah51 (CC) "It can only be BOTB time when I find myself checking on the result of Vassallo Arguello v Schuettler." Quite!

Another former no. 1, Ashley Harkleroad's ***** (MP) couldn't resist gloating over the shocking performance of his former team-mates on day 1: "Think it's pretty obvious who carried who on this team... Gav and I don't play and you can barely get a point between you!"

But I'm pleased to say that DJ (MP) had the last laugh: "Go check out my ranking now! the only reason you're not playing is 'cos you're scared that i will kick your fat ****!!!" You tell him, girl!

Still, it wasn't completely rosy in the MP garden:

Pebs (MP) "Oh ffs, thats the last time I look at the scores... just about every single pick I have is ****ing up in marvellous style at the moment... what a bunch of *******." Language!! LOL

eblunt · Club Coach

Steven,

Something slightly dodgy about your listing, doesn't seem to have ordered right - e.g count zero down in 159th place with 13 pts, sandwiched between the 11 and 12 pt line.
Maybe giving me a few extra points would straighten things out ....