i don't remember Wardy ever showing us he has ability on indoor courts, i never remember him going deep in a challenger etc. if it had been a away clay tie then i think he be favourite for the spot, but at the moment we have Evans (indoor winner) Goodall (shown more consistency) & Boggo (???)
maybe Wardy will do well on indoor in the late season, but unfortunately that's too late for this tie.
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Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.
Assume Murray plays....this tie will be decided by the doubles.
So the real thought should be the dubs pairing.
The worlds current no 2 is a handy dubs player. If he wants to play the dubs then it will be him and Hutchins. They have played before and get on well.
If he does not then its pointless picking a pure dubs specialist on his own...bear in mind Andy could be on the verge of the world no1 spot and may not want to commit to 3x 5 set matches over 3 days.
So if Andy plays all 3 days then I would pick Evo as the second singles spot along with Hutchins to partner Andy.
If he just wants to play singles then along with Evo I would go for our best GB pair in the dubs which would be Flemski.
However Hutchins may push to play with Fleming in the dubs and I can see that scenario but it would be good for them to play together prior to tie ?
Its all if's and but's atm but one thing is almost certain - whoever wins the dubs will win this tie.
Likely Polish players...
L Kubot WR135 Singles / WR15 dubs.
Not played DC tie since 2007. He is 15-5 in singles but only 2 wins on hard court with 1 loss. Never played a world group tie or even a WG play-off tie. Group II or III is where he has played.
Not lost to a Brit in the last year in both singles (d. Evo) and dubs.
H2H singles v Brits is 3/2 (losing to Parmar twice). H2H dubs v Brits is 8/3 with 3 early career losses (Last loss in 2007 to Bloomers/Marray).
Having his best ever year with reaching his first ever ATP final (l. to Nole).
In summary this guy is a world class dubs player and solid singles player on clay.
If he doesnt play then we are in the drving seat even without the dubs.
Jerzy JANOWICZ WR232 Singles / WR712
DC record - W1/L1 on clay and W1/L1 on hard. Up and coming 19yr old. Won several futures titles and made the SF f the Poznan Challenger this year as a WC.
Dubs...
Matkowski & Fyrstenberg WR12 + 13 Dubs. Dont need say that much about these guys. They have been round the block before.
DC record : 12-5 W/L and 12-4 W/L respectively again all in lower tier II ot III groups.
They have a 12/1 WL record v Brits...only the Murray Bros beat them in 2007.
Dont waste Murray in the Dubs, as whoever we put in we still have a very little chance of winning it. So theres no need to waste Andys energy.
The second singles player will be decided on US Open qualies in my view, Im sure John will be there, like he was at Australian Qualies. It will probably be Evans, and Goodall as backup.
Team should be: Andy Evo Hutchins Goody
Day 1: Murray vs Evans vs
Day 2: Hutchins/Goody vs
Day 3: Murray vs Evans vs
-- Edited by spud on Monday 17th of August 2009 02:54:57 PM
I think we don't have a hope of winning the doubles, whoever plays: so then we have to aim to win 3 singles matches. Assume Andy will win both his, then the question becomes which of our players has the best hope of beating their no2 singles player, Dan Evans or Josh? The doubles players should fit round this choice and not require the singles players to play 3 matches so as to maximise our chances of winning 3 singles matches. On that basis I'd go with Flemski.
Goodall is much more comfortable under pressure at these big occasions now so I'd, personally go with him for the singles. But its definitely down to surface speed.
Is Josh more comfortable under pressure? really we've seen nothing to confirm this have we? A win over a low ranked Q at ATP level and pushing Llodra at Wimby, (but having far and away the best draw of the Brits) doesn't really count.
i'm not saying Josh definitely shouldn't get the nod over Dan, but i don't think he should be picked on the belief he could up his game for the tie. Really there is only 1 Brit who shown he can do that and that's Eaton. but i don't think he should be chosen as he is too unpredictable.
i think a fair bit will come down to the USOQ,
with even draws and given the summer form i'd expect boggo to do the best, but JL being their may well hold him back. really JL shouldn't watch boggo, he doesn't want him in the team anyway.
i still say no to 2 dubs specialists, to orisky with injury's, esp in a tie we may lose:
Murray Evans Hutchins Goodall
-- Edited by Count Zero on Monday 17th of August 2009 03:49:14 PM
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Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.
I'd imagine Boggo playing in St Remy is more to do with the fact it is the only hard court event that week, and so if he didn't play it, it would be at least three (and maybe four weeks if he loses early in US Open qualies) without playing a tournament.
And if he then was selected for the DC, it becomes five weeks, and with all the challengers for the next two weeks on a clay court, it would become seven weeks for him without having much chance to score ranking points if he didn't play this challenger.
I'd imagine if Boggo isn't selected for DC, he'll play Metz qualies instead, and then maybe Thailand/Kuala Lumpur qualies the following week.
i think FD has hit the nail on the head with boggo, although i'm not sure if he will head to the far east, might just stay in Europe and train in the weeks off. make sure he is fresh for the run of challenger in October
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Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.