Cricket is a sport which is particularly susceptible to luck, especially for batsmen. You get a good ball early in your innings, or a poor umpiring decision, and you do not get a second chance (unless the fielder drops a catch, which is competely outside your control).
But of course human beings love patterns and stories. So poor old Ravi Bopara gets it in the neck for being useless, when he wasn't even out in the second innings. And of course, Australia are "just hitting form at the right time" for the 5th Test. (Just like they hit form in the first test, before getting thumped in the second, less than a week later.)
The mountain of post-event analysis is all cobblers. The fifth test could go either way, no matter who plays for England. I'd stick with Bopara, if only because statistical regression to the mean would suggest he is "due for a score" (there, I'm falling into the same trap, LOL .....)
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"Where Ratty leads - the rest soon follow" (Professor Henry Brubaker - The Institute of Studies)
some player seem to get 1 strike and they are out with the England team, others get a lot.
I have nothing against Bopara but 105 over 8 innings is pretty dire. The Aussies are not exactly going to be worried about him stepping up to the crease right now are they.
Hughes was dropped, and i think watson came in and did all right.
Admitedly 5th test is a tough time to change, but even in the testes where we have done well as a team Ravi doesnt seem to have been able to get going.
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Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.
Well done Mr Trott....must give credit to the selectors for sticking with him.
If England lose this...well they should give the game up !
2% chance the Aussies will will, 50% England win, 48% the draw...I have seen enough England fiascos not to get too excited until they are 9 down with 2 sessions left.
Agree with Drew that if England lose this it would just about be the ultimate disappointent.
Would say though with the weather forecast so good, and 2 full days left, I don't agree at all with Drew's percentages.
This match has very very little chance of being a draw, say 2% if Aussies maybe lose some earlish wickets today and get into total survival mode or there are some unexpected showers say tomorrow. Australia may need 546 to win, but now "only" 466 more with 2 full days left. Basically if England don't get 10 wickets ( and they haven't started well ) it will mean Australia probably creating fourth innings history and winning.
My percentages would be : England to win 88%, Australia to win 10%, Draw 2%
So Aussies now 278 for 5, more than half way to their little target with still half their wickets intact, so well on pace
In truth, England have this well in hand ( surely ! ), although was slightly worrying at 217 for 2 before Ponting ( great throw Freddie ! ) and Clarke ( unlucky ) were run out.
Get either Hussey or Haddin out and it's then into Johnson and the rest of the bowlers.
Then the England players will be putting in their claims for MBEs like the 2005 mob got