2009 Wimbledon 'Battle of the Boards' pick 'em contest

ForeverDelayed · Grand Slam Champion

RE: 2009 Wimbledon 'Battle of the Boards' pick 'em contest

Silver · County player

I'm gutted. I thought I was reasonable at this game but WIMBLEDON always manages to bring out the muppet in my picks. Shocking to the nth degree.

steven · Tennis legend

WIMBLEDON BOTB - DAY 2 'SYNDICATED' REPORT

Day 1 saw all all of the remaining matches in R1 completed except one - Taylor Dent nearly went down to Gimeno-Traver in straight sets but recovered to win the 3rd before play was suspended. That means this isn't quite an end of R1 report, but I'll try and highlight any major things that could change as I go through.

The biggest shocks today were last year's semi-finalist Safin (picked by 98%) losing to Levine, Eastbourne winner Tursunov (93%) losing to Zverev, Muppetman Kiefer (79%) losing to the Magician, Phau (74%) losing to Crivoi and Christophe Rochus (89%) outdoing Boggo by losing his 9th Wimbledon main draw match in a row to Cuevas (!) 11-9 in the 5th after being two sets up.

Detailed results can be found at http://www.britishtennis.net/competitions.html

TEAMS

They are certainly not renowned for being front-runners, but the Ducklings held onto their lead all day, though they will lose out to the Feddies (currently 2nd) at the last gasp if Gimeno-Traver wins the held over match.

Before the team size adjustment factor (which corrects for the fact that smaller teams are likely to have more extreme averages, high or low) is taken into account, BBC 606 have the highest average for R1 but after adjustment, they stay in 3rd. AM.com are still in 4th and JM.org, up 4 to 5th, complete the top five.

Lower down, TAT have crept up 2 places to 9th and BT.net 2 places to 12th. Heading the other way are the Hewitts, down 3 to 8th, Tennisopolis, down 3 to 11th, and MTF (who used to nearly always win R1s!) down 2 to last, allowing GBTG to climb 1 to 14th.

INDIVIDUALS

One of yesterday's seven joint leaders, Jessie181 (TA), took the lead on his own on Tuesday. He was out in front by 3 points at one stage but his lead was later pegged back to 1. He will win R1 outright with 53/64 if Dent wins the held over match but will tie for the R1 win on 52/64 with team-mate Kirkus (TA) (down 1 to 2= today) if Gimeno-Traver wins it.

Sharing 2nd place just 1 point off the lead are Laura (AR) & Sjones (TN), both up 78 after equal top scoring for the day with 28/33 (the former got the first 18 results of the day correct!), Roy (GR), up 6, Kirkus (TA), down 1, bblola08 (RF), up 6, Shizzard (IN), up 31, and cheddarwurst (IN), up 6.

A group of 10 players a further point back in 9= is headed by two of those in the top 50 of the overall rankings, world no. 5 dusty dick (BT), up 71, and andys_ipod (AM), up 24.

ON THE RISE

Jtdrum10 (TA), up 220 to 19=, was the third of the entrants who equal top scored on day 2 with 28/33. Those who scored 27/33 included - dale123 (AM) & Tenez (CC), both up 223 to 147= to make them the fastest risers of the day, while WimbledonAce (AM), Fiercehart (TA) & Portsey (BT), all up 191 to 48=, made the biggest leaps into the top 100.

DODGY DROPPERS

Those most in need of a parachute include emf123 (IN), down 234 to 314=, iluvarodd203 (AR), down 211 to 366=, and USARMY MOS35H (AM), down 211 to 366=, despite all three of them scoring 20/33 on day 2, plus fastest faller poolietennis (IN), down 238 to 393= after getting 19/33 correct.

However, the only entrants who scored less than 50% on day 2 were Donna Hammond (TN), down 34 to 446th after getting just 15/33 and Mom of Twins (IN), down 5 to 447= after scoring 16/33 - she shares last place with agustin (SG), up 1 to 447=, but they are both just above 50% overall so the gorillas are already going hungry.

OUTLOOK

7 entrants will have 29 of their 32 R2 winner picks surviving R1 - sharpie (GR), former world no. 1 Linda (AM), Phillyscheesesteaks (AM), scolios (CC), Skydive7 (TN), marian (GR) and Borovnia (TY) - they are all in the top half of the table. Strangely, despite nearly half of us picking Dent to reach R3, none of these seven did so, hence the number of surviving R2 winner picks they have will not be affected by the held over match.

Conversely, the unfortunate Donna Hammond (TN), currently one point above last place, has seen more than half of her R2 winner picks go out in R1.

QUOTES

No time to check for more quotes at the moment, but the realisation that Oscar Hernandez (who lost 0, 0 & 3 to Leo Mayer) had been a majority pick (56%), produced quite a reaction:

wolf (BT) said "I might be 431rd but at least I can sit here and say I am not one of the 56% of people who picked Oscar Hernandez to win. Quite possibly the worst majority pick I have ever seen."

ForeverDelayed (BT) agreed and was in favour of drastic measures: "I cannot think of one possible reason why Hernandez was picked. Those who did pick him should be eliminated from the game as a matter of principle, for clearly knowing nothing about tennis." - however, that would mean banning 251 BOTB entrants (not to mention 8938 of those in the ATP BC), so may be a bit drastic!

ASE (AM) was equally bemused when it transpired that an even bigger proportion of the seven day 1 leaders had chosen the Spaniard: "You are seriously saying that 5 of the folks who were good enough at this to be leading after 1 day, picked Oscar on grass? Were they on grass, too?"

Was it just a case of both of one coming from Spain and the other from Argentina and Oscar having a more memorable name? I guess we'll never know!

steven · Tennis legend

Btw an update on the Oscar Hernandez issue - in http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/tennis/article6567776.ece, which centres on suspicious betting patterns in the Melzer-Odesnik match (92% of us had Melzer to win, so why was betting on him to win suspicious, I wonder ...), it mentions something I hadn't picked up on - that Hernandez beat mad Dani on grass in Rosmalen last week.

"Last week, several bookmakers voided bets on a grass-court match in the Netherlands when the odds on Oscar Hernandez beating Daniel Kollerer shortened from 5-6 to 1-5 and a four-figure sum was wagered on him to win by an unnamed punter. Hernández won 6-3, 6-2."

Now that really is something I'd want a stewards' enquiry for! biggrin

ForeverDelayed · Grand Slam Champion

Hernandez vs. Koellerer was clearly a fixed match.

Don't get why Melzer vs. Odesnik would be a match with suspicious betting patterns as Melzer was never going to lose that match. I guess that could just be an example of everyone backing Melzer because he was clearly the better player rather than any sign of a fix.

Istomin vs. Fognini was the "interesting" match from yesterday. Despite being 2 sets down, Fognini, with no previous track record on grass, was the favourite to beat Istomin on Betfair. Lo and behold, Istomin retired in the fourth set...make your own conclusions judged on that.

And I love the fact that despite being in 393rd place, I managed to move up the standings from the previous update!!!

steven · Tennis legend

Since there was only one R1 match left, here are the team positions and the top 25 individuals with just that match added. That means I can make the change column for today relate only to R2 matches, which will make life a bit simpler when doing today's report:

TEAMS LEAGUE R1 only

N.B. Individuals and teams with less than 5 members are not shown on this summary table

Code:

Pos(chg)	AvePts	SCORE	% Max	Full team name (entrants)
				
 1	(46.59)	46.85	73.2%	RF - RogerFederer.com (27)
 2	(46.84)	46.80	73.1%	AR - AndyRoddick.com (19)
 3	(47.11)	46.42	72.5%	BB - BBC 606 boards (9)
 4	(45.72)	46.29	72.3%	AM - AndyMurray.com (65)
 5	(46.00)	45.81	71.6%	JM - JamieMurray.org (13)
 6	(45.45)	45.56	71.2%	CC - Centre Court Forum (31)
 7	(45.40)	45.29	70.8%	TY - Tennis4you.com (10)
 8	(45.17)	45.10	70.5%	LH - LleytonHewitt.biz (6)
 9	(44.93)	44.89	70.1%	TA - TalkAboutTennis (45)
10	(44.70)	44.67	69.8%	GR - Rusedski.co.uk (23)
11	(44.69)	44.50	69.5%	TN - Tennisopolis.com (48)
12	(44.49)	44.24	69.1%	BT - BritishTennis.net (43)
13	(43.80)	44.16	69.0%	RG - RichardGasquet.net (10)
14	(42.75)	43.58	68.1%	GB - GBTennisGirls.com (8)
15	(43.48)	43.44	67.9%	MT - MensTennisForums (21)

For detailed results and team knockout scores,
please see http://www.britishtennis.net/competitions.html

INDIVIDUALS R1 only - TOP 25

Code:

Posn TOTALS - %s	Team - Player (WR pre-event)	
				
1	52 - 81.3 %	TA - Jessie181 (64)	
1	52 - 81.3 %	TA - Kirkus (140)	
3	51 - 79.7 %	BT - dusty dick (5)	
3	51 - 79.7 %	AM - andys_ipod (46)	
3	51 - 79.7 %	GR - Roy (99)	
3	51 - 79.7 %	RF - bblola08 (143)	
3	51 - 79.7 %	AR - Laura (276)	
3	51 - 79.7 %	TN - Sjones (396)	
3	51 - 79.7 %	IN - Shizzard (668)	
3	51 - 79.7 %	IN - cheddarwurst (-)	
3	51 - 79.7 %	TA - srberg (-)	
12	50 - 78.1 %	RF - mathiasR (14)	
12	50 - 78.1 %	CC - SLess (65)	
12	50 - 78.1 %	BT - MJD (67)	
12	50 - 78.1 %	RF - mary91 (101)	
12	50 - 78.1 %	CC - Dark_Necrofear (155)	
12	50 - 78.1 %	CC - Lex (168)	
12	50 - 78.1 %	TY - Tennis4you (232)	
12	50 - 78.1 %	ND - Inokas (235)	
12	50 - 78.1 %	RF - Arab (294)	
12	50 - 78.1 %	AR - Marion Bernard (515)	
12	50 - 78.1 %	IN - Fentiger (561)	
12	50 - 78.1 %	BB - J. Alfred Prufrock (Mrs) (833)	
12	50 - 78.1 %	RF - Matt (-)	
12	50 - 78.1 %	GB - Andrew (GB) (-)	
-	50 - 78.1 %	** - Roberta (*) (-)

The L16 KO draw, seeded using R1 finishing position with 'other boards' added as the 16th team. is as follows, with early scores after the first 5 results of R2, i.e. wins for Nole, Fish, Sela and Robredo (from 2 sets down!) plus the w/o for Tsonga:

(1) RogerFederer.com 7.11
(16) MensTennisForums 6.95

(9) TalkAboutTennis 7.47
(8) LleytonHewitt.biz 7.33

(5) JamieMurray.org 8.00
(12) Other Boards 7.20

(13) BritishTennis.net 7.40
(4) AndyMurray.com 7.45

(3) BBC 606 boards 7.78
(14) RichardGasquet.net 6.80

(11) Tennisopolis.com 7.42
(6) Centre Court Forum 7.42

(7) Tennis4you.com 7.20
(10) Rusedski.co.uk 7.39

(15) GBTennisGirls.com 7.00
(2) AndyRoddick.com 7.58

steven · Tennis legend

Hmm, I think I'll leave that post as an example of Activeboard in full meltdown mode!

Count Zero · Tennis legend

nice

steven · Tennis legend

WIMBLEDON BOTB - DAY 3 'SYNDICATED' REPORT

The only minority pick who won against a majority pick who had made it to R2 was Sela (picked by 8%) who beat Schuettler (67%), but the matches causing the biggest movements on the table were those where the winner had been picked by 50-70%, e.g. Montanes picked by 59% and Fish picked by 69%.

Detailed results can be found at http://www.britishtennis.net/competitions.html

TEAMS

The no. 2 team in the overall rankings AM.com is making a concerted bid for the no. 1 spot after Wimbledon, shooting up 3 places to 1st today. They lead on adjusted average, just 0.02 ahead of the Feddies, who fell 1 to 2nd, with BBC 606 still in 3rd place.

JM.org, up 1 to 4th, lead R2, and are just ahead of Team CC, up 1 to 5th. No. 1 ranked team Rusedski.co.uk, up 2 to 8th, also made progress, but Tennisopolis, up 4 to 7th, were the biggest risers of the day. The biggest fallers of the day were the Ducklings, down 4 to 6th, and T4Y, down 4 to 11th.

TOP 15

For the first time I can remember since BOTB properly took off, one of the bots is in the lead. Racy, who picks based on where players would be in the ATP Race if it still existed, leads the top human entrant by one point having got all of the first 15 matches in R2 correct. You might have noticed that the clay courters are having a relatively good time and the clay court bias that looking at only the year so far produces made Racy pick Almagro rather than F-Loppy. 'He' had Sela to reach R3 as well.

The 1st placed human entrant is still Jessie191 (TA), yesterday's leader and the joint winner of R1, who like all of the rest of the new top 13, got 13/15 R2 matches correct on Wednesday.

Half a dozen players are now breathing down his neck though - andys_ipod (AM), Roy (GR), bblola08 (RF) & Shizzard (IN) plus highest-placed debutants cheddarwurst (IN) & srberg (TA) have all moved up 1 place to 2=.

One point further back (and level with the pure rankings bot Roberta) are mathiasR (RF), SLess (CC), MJD (BT), Inokas (ND), Fentiger (IN) and Andrew (GB), all moving up 4 to 8=.

They are followed by the first of 8 entrants who have the equal top human score in R2 so far of 14/15, Fiercehart (TA) & polo el pato (RF), both up 39 to 14=.

ON THE RISE

Two more of the entrants with 14/15 in R2 so far, Joe/Lonestar2289 (IN) & Omegadoom (TA), both up 62 to 32=, were already less than 100 places from the top at the start of the day, but the rest of the 14/15s all had three-figure rises - Scotsguy (CC), up 130 to 82nd, Big Al (CC), up 164 to 108th, TennisFan (TN), up 172 to 146th, and fastest riser of the day Maggie M (is Muzza's dog really playing for Tennis.com?!), up 178 to 188th!

DODGY DROPPERS

With over 120 entrants scoring 13/15 or better, many of those with the usually excellent score of 12/15 actually fell a fair bit. In particular, 11/15 for joint R1 winner Kirkus (TA) produced a fall of 33 to 34th place, and 10/15 for dusty dick (BT) and Laura (AR) saw them both plummet 106 from 3= to 109=!

Anyone getting less than 10/15 results correct was in deep trouble, e.g. Portsey (BT), down 246 to 299th, The Hoose (BT) & zephblabs (TA), both down 209 to 360=, all fell over 200 places after getting 9/15, while dale123 (AM) & MrSwizz (IN), both dropped 244 to 395= despite just edging over 50% for the day and mccriddsta (TY) plummeted 306 from 26th to 332nd.

Five entrants scored less than 50% on Wednesday, but they were already in the last five places, Stephen (IN), down 1 to 446th and agustin (SG), down 1 to last, equal low-scoring with just 6/15 correct.

OUTLOOK

The Potty (71%) v Hewitt (28%) match that opens proceedings on Centre Court on Thursday is a 9-pointer for most people, since the vast majority of entrants have their winner of this match reaching the QFs. I'm with the minority in this case, so very, very nervous about this one!

Drew · Jun 25, 2009

Do I dare believe that Hewitt can beat Delpo....2 sets up Leyton...dont blow it !

The Hoose · Satellite level

make that 2 sets and a break

(I had Del Potro to reach the final but am really enjoying seeing the old Hewitt back)

-- Edited by The Hoose on Thursday 25th of June 2009 01:56:30 PM

ForeverDelayed · Grand Slam Champion

It looks like at last one of my crazy picks is going to come off!

steven · Tennis legend

I'm not counting any chickens, but as having underdogs to win in pick 'ems goes, I'd rather have Hewitt than anyone else!

Drew · Jun 25, 2009

Yippeeee Hewit wins !!!

I have him going deep...!

mjd · Challenger qualifying

Quick Steven do the Pickums updates before any more matches finish!