Debate: is Andy good enough to win Wimbledon this year?

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

Debate: is Andy good enough to win Wimbledon this year?

Ratty · County player

He's the third best player in the world, and so is probably about the third most likely to win the title.

The bookies have him at a 25% chance - ie about 20% without their profit margin. Sounds about right to me!

Drew · Jun 6, 2009

Good content Kundalini and a fairly good appraisal of where Andy is.
I do think though we will see a more positive Murray on grass this summer.

Ratty · County player

Too reliant on his opponent's errors rather than looking to dominate

Isn't this how counter-punchers play? It's done him pretty well so far ...

Alarming mental slumps such as the recent one against Gonzalez

Gonzalez was on fire. He was playing like a world No 1. Usually he doesn't play like that, as he showed in his next match. Federer was suffering in the same way against Del Potro, but with his additional experience (and those 13 majors behind him) he just managed to ride out the storm.

Sorry to seem as though I am your stalker Kundalini, but I just don't get the way these discussions go ...

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

As big an Andy fan as I am - and that is big - I reluctantly have to agree that this year may not be the year, if ever. The mental pressure on him to win his home slam is so great that he cannot be unaware of it - even if he avoids reading the press or watching tv, the interviewers' questions will ram it home.

Tenniswise, worse players by far have won Grand Slams. Unless you are as dominant as Federer and Nadal have been, you need a lot of luck. So although I do think he is good enough to win a slam I'm not sure that it will be just yet - maybe in a year or two when the expectations have died down and nobody expects a win! If he can win the USO or Oz first, then maybe he would manage a Wimbledon.

Of course I'm hoping that the luck will run his way. . .

-- Edited by Madeline on Saturday 6th of June 2009 09:52:28 AM

indiana · Tennis legend

I don't see this as being Andy's year yet, I see Roger as being favourite to regain his crown.

I will take kundalini's points one at a time, most of which Iagree with but some of which I certainly diasgree with in parts and in emphasis.

1) Gets broken too often, yes, and I see that as mainly because the first serve is not yet consistent enough or the second serve strong enough. To me that's really the nub, he is not as yet as good a server as he needs to be rather than a particular carelessness. We can point to almost all players for at least a little carelessness.

2) Alarming mental slumps, agree

3) Too reliant on opponents errors, don't really agree since it is how he often plays and very successively. He can play different ways and it is more a question of fitting his style to the match. Like recently against Clic in Paris which I thought was a very fine match from Andy and in my view he did not receive due credit on this board and over criticism for his tactics. Similarly some matches more in the past. Just my view, I'm not going to go off on one smile

4) Certainly much more chance with improved serve and volleys on grass. Forehand I hadn't really considered such an issue but you may be right. Are you meaning needs to more powerful with the consequent returns this has on grass ?

5) Certainly agree first grand slam is tough. He maybe froze a little bit in the US Open but I don't see that as a major issue for Andy and obviously the US Open experience will help in future. I actually think it was more he simply didn't bring his best tennis to that match and maybe some reaction to the Nadal match. He lost his length as he sometimes does and Roger was hence all over him at times.

6) I absolutely agree about his lack of quality against Gasquet and Nadal last year. He got through against Gasquet largely helped by Gasquet, plus his own fighting spirit, never going to be good enough against Nadal.

I 'd be hugely disappointed and surprised if Andy went down "without much of a fight" and in general surely it is clear that he is a fighter who has often got back from seriously bad positions, eg. Gasquet last year even not playing too well and with some help from Gasquet. End of match slumps are more my occasonal concerns, eg. Fernandez in Paris, not the first time I have seen a slightly bizarre total let down at the end from Andy.

Ratty · County player

Gets broken too often, yes, and I see that as mainly because the first serve is not yet consistent enough or the second serve strong enough. To me that's really the nub, he is not as yet as good a server as he needs to be rather than a particular carelessness. We can point to almost all players for at least a little carelessness.

Djokovic and del Potro are pretty damned good at serving, am I right, or am I right?

Here are some FACTS, not just anecdotal speculations:

Service holds: Djokovic 84%, Murray 83%, del Potro 82%

Points won on first serve: Djokovic 72%, Murray 73%, del Potro 72%

Points won on second serve (Murray's is rubbish, remember): Djokovic 53%, Murray 53%, del Potro 54%

indiana · Tennis legend

I was talking, like I presume kundalini was as to what you are looking for ideally at the highest level, and particularly what you need for Wimbledon.

Noone mentioned the word "rubbish" and I am presuming you do recognise that there is most certainly room for a fair bit of improvement in Andy's serve.

Neither did we suggest that stats wise it still wouldn't stand reasonable comparison with some other top players.  Re second serve remember no matter how he may sometimes be open to attack on second service he is actually possibly the best defensive player in the world and can get himself into rallies and still win the points.

What is certainly the case is that while his return ( and the stats prove it ) has consistently been up there around the very top, his serve is open to improvement in areas and serve is very important at Wimbledon.

Yes, these service stats stand up against these two top 5 players you have chosen.

Perhaps they are worth considering in the overall ATP stats :  http://www.atpworldtour.com/tennis/en/players/matchfacts/

And in isolation, and bringing Nadal and Federer's stats into the equation so we can see all of the top 5 and in particular the players Murray needs to surpass :

Service holds :

4. Federer 88%
5. Nadal   85%
7. Djokovic 84%
13. Murray 83%
17. Del Potro 82%

Points on 1st sevice :

6. Federer 77%
20. Murray   73%
25. Djokovic 72%
26. Nadal   72%
27. Del Potro 72%

Points on 2nd Service :

1. Nadal 57%
4. Federer 56%
9T Del Potro 54%
13. Djokovic 53%
14. Murray 53%

And on the first service percentage, which is still open to improvement. but Andy deserves credit for the real improvement he has made to get his stats in around the very top players :

10. Nadal 67%
20. Djokovic 63%
31. Del Potro 61%
38. Murray 60%
39. Federer 60%

We are talking about Andy v the very best and his service stats are on average behind Nadal and Federer and top tennis is won often on margins such as these.

He is already one of the absolute top returners, retrievers and ralliers after the serve ( which of course helps the serve stats other than the first serve in )

If he could ally this to the necessary continued serve improvements, he has real chances to achieve his ambitions, including at Wimbledon.

But I really don't think he is there yet this year, partly because of some of the above.

I am not saying he can't win Wimbledon this year. I am saying I don't expect him to win it, I would make Federer a clear favourite.

-- Edited by indiana on Saturday 6th of June 2009 04:49:30 PM

ForeverDelayed · Grand Slam Champion

I think Federer is definately the big favourite to win the event having finally claimed the French Open title, especially with Nadal not playing a warm-up event because of injury, but he's still not a certainty to claim the title as to do so, you'd have to expect him to face one of the other big four players who he hasn't got a great record against.

Murray is probably third favourite to win the title and he has got a good chance, but I think his chances of winning the titles depends more of how Federer and Nadal play then anything that he does as I not sure that he is able to beat either of them or a grass court unless he's improved his movement from last year, which he has probably done, but to what extent would be the question.

Someone like Tsonga is also a serious threat to the title if he can play to his best. Given some well he can serve, how hard he hits his forehand, and now good he is at the net, if everyone comes off for him, he's got a good chance as well, but he's also capable of just being unable to put it all together.

Perhaps something else that can help Murray would be the centre court crowd - they need to be more like the crowd on Chatrier to give him the best chance of winning rather than the polite crowd that they are normally. When the crowd really got behind Murray against Gasquet last year, it gave him the lift to turn the match around. The problem is, the crowd is never like that normally and it has to be to give him a great chance.

But can you really see a seriously loud, partizan and perhaps disrespectful crowd like the one on Chatrier or a Davis Cup style crowd if Murray is involved in a tight match with Federer or Nadal?

Ratty · County player

I thought Roger Draper was going to get Wimbledon to sell the tickets on the internet, instead of distributing them through tennis club ballots.

Until this starts happening, I'm afraid that polite applause and "Come on Tim" is the most noise you're ever going to get.

The Hoose · Satellite level

I'm in the "Andy could win it but it's not very likely" camp, which is hardly sticking my neck out. Andy's never really shown that he's anything other than a hard court specialist (relatively speaking) and, although this is the first season he's been fully fit and fully developed coming into Wimbledon, I think we'll see a gap in class between him and the top 2. I don't think Andy's service game is consistent enough to get him through two weeks of Wimbledon, where it matters the most.

I'm slightly surprised to see him and Nadal with the same odds - perhaps this is due to Nadal's injury and his early exit in Roland Garros but I know who I'd rather have my money on.

-- Edited by The Hoose on Monday 8th of June 2009 09:14:17 AM

Count Zero · Tennis legend

I think Andy could be 2nd fav, and i can see him being joint with rafa, it's hard to know how serious rafa's injury is, but he will be going into to wimby without any grass matches under his belt either so it may take him time to adjust his game style, and a bad draw could send him home earlier than expected.

its very hard to tell where Djoko will be too, but at the moment you feel Fed will be very strong. he really has no pressure any more. i dont think he will worry about being world No1 etc, just slams from here on in for him. perhaps we will see him back to his imperious best which could be bad news for the rest of mens tennis.

tenniscynic · Social player

Saw Murray at QUeens in the doubles yesterday and you could feel the British excitement - he looked relaxed and very sharp but whether he will be the same when the going gets tough in singles is another matter.

I can't see Rafa being a threat this year - even if he does pass the medical he is having today - as I think his knees are seriously damaged and what he needs is a Tiger Woods type break/treatment.

It will also depend on which side of the draw Andy is - I think Fed will be the biggest threat (stating the obvious maybe) so let's hope Andy isn't on his side of the draw- assume this will depend on whether Rafa plays or not.

The Hoose · Satellite level

I hadn't realised the extent of Rafa's woes when I made my comments yesterday. I'm assuming Murray has enough grass court points to be second seed if Rafa pulls out?

indiana · Tennis legend

I'm sure Andy would be absolutely safe for being second seed if Nadal pulled out. He's currently got 1210 ranking points more than Djokovic, who hardly has a stellar grass court record anyway, and everyone else is much further back than that.

The question does arise though as to how great that actually would be ? Second seed, so some folk would no doubt see that as seeded for the final, and indeed in some folks' eyes expected to / should make the final. I am sure not the case here but in the wider and "all tennis is Wimbledon" British public hmm

And if he is going very deep iinto the tournament would a possible Roger semi ( if he landed in the same half of the draw ) not maybe be less of a hurdle than meeting the great man in an other Grand Slam final, this time at his "home" ? There's possibly also a bit more chance of partisanship to Andy in a semi than the final, where I would guess a few more of the worthies ( or not ) attend the final.

I did kind of see this coming with Rafa, he's had some trouble with his knees from much earlier on in the season than previously. Yes, looks as if at some stage even if he does make Wimbledon that some serious decisions will need to be made.

-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 9th of June 2009 08:24:27 AM