Nice idea Shhh, thanks for organising

Division one:
1: Alex Bogdanovic 225
2: Joshua Goodall 212
3: James Ward 275
4: Richard Bloomfield 475
5: Alexandar Slabinsky 295
6: Chris Eaton 525

Division Two:
1: Dan Evans 302
2: Joshua Milton 688
3: Dan Cox 642
4: David Rice 755
5: Marcus Willis 702
6: Dan Smethurst 897

Division Three:
1: Jamie Baker 330
2: Jonny Marray 420
3: Colin Fleming 375
4: James Feaver 940
5: Burnham Arlidge 780
6: Alexander Ward 1349

MJD Prediction:

Division one:
1: Alex Bogdanovic 150
2: Joshua Goodall 160
3: James Ward 240
4: Richard Bloomfield 170
5: Alexander Slabinsky 190
6: Chris Eaton 360

Division Two:
1: Dan Evans 230
2: Joshua Milton 450
3: Dan Cox 800
4: David Rice 860
5: Marcus Willis 450
6: Dan Smethurst 700

Division Three:
1: Jamie Baker 200
2: Jonny Marray 380
3: Colin Fleming 350
4: James Feaver 750
5: Burnham Arlidge 600
6: Alexander Ward 1000




-- Edited by mjd at 19:46, 2008-12-22

Thanks for all the entries, 18 in all, and a special welcome to the two first time posters. Its not too late to enter those that haven't yet.

I have printed out the tables to start with, which of course mean nothing but it shows you how ambitious some people are over the potential changes. The biggest move predicted is 566 places by John for Marcus Willis. The smallest is just 1 place by Yorkie for Richard Bloomfield.

We are an optimistic bunch, about 70% of the predictions are for an increase. We dont seem to feel Alex Ward will be going anywhere though with an average prediction of a fall by of 268 places to 1148. Jmaes Ward seems to be most people tip for the big step forward with 6 of you predicting he'll become the British No.2 by the years end.

Remember, the idea is to predict the exact end of year ranking, with a point scored for each position you are out. Therefore, the least points scored the better (the figure in bold). Its a bit of a mess I know but I'll find out how to post it neater.  Never the less, the positions we are starting from;

Division 1 - The Challengers

    Alex       Joshua James  Richard   Alexander Chris  Points
Bogdanovic Goodall Ward Bloomfield Slabinsky Eaton Scored
(Current Ranking) 188 203 279 296 286 389

Count Zero 135 185 210 295 275 450  213
RobH 170 160 200 300 260 440  221
freerider 198 164 142 280 299 402  228
Simmy26 200 195 140 250 280 415  237
Shhh 160 190 210 260 310 480  261
Dusty Dick 138 220 182 330 278 450 267
Drew 149 172 140 250 190 375  365
m-j-d 150 160 240 170 190 360  371
Grundon 225 212 275 475 295 525  374
Josh 161 206 182 393 310 532  391
Craven91 140 180 150 260 220 300  391
kinley 220 235 200 380 350 495  397
Seagull 149 201 185 368 345 532  409
John 100 150 170 320 280 550  441
The Hoose 262 248 320 402 379 474  444
Yorkie 250 290 190 295 480 500  544
Malteser 200 150 160 350 280 700  555
johnnylad 199 170 150 440 210 600  604


Division 2 - The Young Guns

 Dan Joshua Don David Marcus Dan        Points
Evans Milton Cox  Rice  Willis Smethurst Scored
(Current Ranking) 477 754 831 938 966 976

Dusty Dick 369 510 730 595 622 700  665
Seagull 312 630 654 575 675 533  740
Malteser 151 750 800 1100 801 850  814
RobH 400 600 690 740 830 840  842
Grundon 302 688 642 755 702 897  956
The Hoose 188 798 489 804 928 841  982
Josh 220 622 664 758 626 903  1219
kinley 275 550 550 575 780 950  1262
Count Zero 300 600 500 620 700 750  1307
Craven91 230 500 750 900 450 800  1312
m-j-d 230 450 800 860 450 700  1452
Shhh 380 560 630 620 570 640  1542
Drew 280 500 600 650 600 700  1612
Yorkie 350 600 550 620 570 640  1612
Simmy26 230 600 550 610 600 700  1652
johnnylad 215 499 480 621 595 816  1716
freerider 205 495 496 800 494 497  1955
John 250 550 300 550 400 800  2092


Division 3 - The Unpredictables

Jamie Jonny     Colin     James Burnham Alex  Points
Baker Marray Flemming Feaver Arlidge   Ward Scored
(Current Ranking) 428 456 648 839 877 980

Count Zero 275 350 450 800 850 1000  584
Seagull 275 412 499 922 850 1321  620
kinley 277 480 380 700 900 870  715
Drew 200 400 390 900 800 900  760
Dusty Dick 248 384 415 866 625 1111  777
RobH 320 300 310 760 780 900  858
Yorkie 310 300 425 1000 700 1030  885
Grundon 330 420 375 940 780 1349  974
Shhh 275 300 425 600 780 1050  938
m-j-d 200 380 350 750 600 1000  988
Simmy26 180 275 280 800 850 1200  1083
John 180 250 250 700 900 900  1094
Malteser 161 300 250 851 1000 1150  1126
freerider 335 296 249 754 659 1211  1146
Craven91 210 400 350 850 700 1400  1180
Josh 254 297 442 814 706 1478  1233
johnnylad 180 300 403 750 851 1500  1284
The Hoose 308 332 602 1104 1097 1288  1301







-- Edited by Shhh at 03:48, 2008-12-30

Division One:

1: Alex Bogdanovic 120
2: Joshua Goodall 170
3: James Ward 210
4: Richard Bloomfield 200
5: Alexandar Slabinsky 350
6: Chris Eaton 450

Division Two:

1: Dan Evans 250
2: Joshua Milton 500
3: Dan Cox 750
4: David Rice 700
5: Marcus Willis 600
6: Dan Smethurst 650

Division Three:

1: Jamie Baker 250
2: Jonny Marray 270
3: Colin Fleming 300
4: James Feaver 900
5: Burnham Arlidge 620
6: Alexander Ward 1100

It's very hard to predict this far in advance, isn't it, when so much can be affected by injuries (long and short) and, at the lower level in particular (and for all of them during the grass court season), by the luck of the draw. With the players who are in their mid-20s, it's also hard to work out whether they'll be able to get themselves motivated or whether 2009 might be the year they decide to give it all up - I've predicted as if the former will happen!

Also, the importance of confidence streaks is clear when you look at http://www.britishtennis.net/stats/2008m.htm?n=1 and see that four of the six multiple singles 'titlists' (as the ATP puts it) had paired wins, i.e. tournament wins in consecutive weeks or two weeks apart - the story is much the same in doubles too.

It's most difficult to predict how players like Eaton and the Wardinator (who gained the vast majority of their points from a single tournament) will do next year. Normally I'd expect them to drop like a stone the following year, but neither of their good runs were complete flukes (i.e. you can benefit from a good draw or an off-form/injured opponent for a match or two, but not for all 3 rounds of Wimby Q or for three QRs and 4 main draw matches in a Spanish Future) and if they can string more runs like that together next year, the new points system is really going to work in their favour.

It's also a bit worrying that many of those who made the biggest upward moves in 2007 had a disappointing 2008 - for example,  while nobody could have foreseen what was going to happen to Jamie B, most of us had high hopes for the Skupster (he even won the 'who's likely to make the greatest impact poll here) but he ended up being the only Brit in the 400-1000 range who was active throughout the year who didn't go up more than 100 places.

	Division 2 - The Young Guns
		Dan	Joshua	Don	David	Marcus	Dan	Points
Position		Evans	Milton	Cox	Rice	Willis	Smethurst	Scored
	Current Ranking->	477	754	831	938	966	976
1	Dusty Dick	369	510	730	595	622	700	665
2	Seagull	312	630	654	575	675	533	740
3	Malteser	151	750	800	1100	801	850	814
4	RobH	400	600	690	740	830	840	842
5	Smidster	380	570	760	850	700	825	857
6	Grundon	302	688	642	755	702	897	956
7	The Hoose	188	798	489	804	928	841	982
8	Josh	220	622	664	758	626	903	1219
9	kinley	275	550	550	575	780	950	1262
10	Count Zero	300	600	500	620	700	750	1307
11	Craven91	230	500	750	900	450	800	1312
12	m-j-d	230	450	800	860	450	700	1452
13	steven	250	500	750	700	600	650	1492
14	Shhh	380	560	630	620	570	640	1542
15	Drew	280	500	600	650	600	700	1612
15	Yorkie	350	600	550	620	570	640	1612
17	Simmy26	230	600	550	610	600	700	1652
18	johnnylad	215	499	480	621	595	816	1716
19	freerider	205	495	496	800	494	497	1955
20	John	250	550	300	550	400	800	2092

we were all pessimistic about A-ward eh! nice to be proved wrong though