(1) Melanie South (GBR) v Q
Mari Tanaka (JPN) v Kurumi Nara (JPN)
Ksenia Lykina (RUS) v Shikha Uberoi (IND)
Junri Namigata (JPN) v (5) Kimiko Date-Krumm (JPN)


This tournament will probably decide whether or not Mel makes a grand slam as a direct entrant for the first time. The rankings which will determine direct entrants are those of December 8. The way things stand at present Mel will occupy the following positions:

Lose 1st round - 114 or 115 (depending on Patricia Mayr in Reunion, who retired in Mauritius)
Lose 2nd round - 112 or 113
Lose QF - 110

The cut-offs for the AO have varied in recent years between 112 and 116, with last year being 112. Hence win or lose she will have a chance, but a QF should secure her position. That's just as well considering she lost to Date-Krumm earlier in the year. However there is a strong opponent to overcome in round 2 probably. Kurumi Nara is (like Lertcheewakarn last week) a current top 10 junior.

Edit: Sorry I forgot to subtract some points for Hradecka which affect Mel's position if she loses in the second round

-- Edited by DavidC at 18:38, 2008-11-24

Doi is another useful Japanese junior to test Mel. After avoiding doubles for several tournaments (presumably to minimise the chance of picking up an injury to scupper her AO main draw bid) Mel has decided to play here with an ex top 100 player:

R1:
KOSHINO (JPN) / TAKAGISHI (JPN) Vs LAINE (FIN) / SOUTH (GBR) (2)

Mel won 6-4, 6-0 :)

Nara is world number 8 junior having been as high as 5. Laura Robson is number 6 also having been as high as 5. She is comparable with Laura but two years older, so probably hasn't got Laura's potential. Nara played two of our top juniors this year, Heather Watson and Hannah James and won both in two. Mel should win but she will need to stamp her authority on the match from the start.

date has withdrawn, so if Mel reaches the QF she will probably face another tough test against Lykina, who is a useful looking prospect from Russia.

-- Edited by PaulM at 13:39, 2008-11-26

She will need around 41 or 42 extra points to get into the top 100 but she will drop her 17th best score which is 7 points. Reaching the final will give her 45 points but she will need 48 or 49 so it is unlikely that a place in the final would be quite enough.

The complexities of the tennis ranking system eh? Let's just say that Mel is DAMN close to be being top 100 and by the start of the year will be very close, regardless. I reckon all this point chasing might do a disservice to her in the new year. The girl's gonna need a good off-season really.

Good luck to her of course.