2008 Paris AMS 'Battle of the Boards' pick 'em contest

Akhenaten · Pro player

RE: 2008 Paris AMS 'Battle of the Boards' pick 'em contest

steven · Tennis legend

Grundon wrote:
Hey Steven - I see you're Number One and your research on Berdbrain paid off!

Yes, two points clear now after Tsonga's win

- I thought I was going to slide about 100 places today having chosen this round to throw caution to the wind, but I was one of just two entrants to pick Tsonga, Flake, Duckboy and Numpty to reach the QFs and by some miracle, they all came through for me. biggrin

However, while the research on Berdbrain v Stani paid off, I then made the mistake of believing Kolya when he said he'd probably be too injured to play well (or even at all) and picked Berdbrain to end his 7-match losing streak against the Russian, so I imagine that's going to come back and get me tonight.

Of course, I'm now even more annoyed at the ATP for closing the Bracket Challenge entries an hour before the advertised time (apparently because they didn't realise the clocks had gone back in Europe) when thanks to all the pick 'em hassle, I didn't have time to do it until 45 minutes before their deadline, by which time they'd taken the form down.

At least, thanks to you taking the entry load on Sunday morning, I wasn't too late to enter our comp though

Count Zero · Tennis legend

Drew wrote:

Steven wrote :

DODGY DROPPERS

Despite them getting more than half of the winners correct today (6/11), other entrants were posting such high scores that Count Zero (BT).......dropped 104 places to 157=!

Thats made my day...Counts a dodgy dropper....priceless LOL

Thats alright Drew, i know its pretty grim 'Oop North' where you live so am happy in my own way to put a smile on your face.

as for Steven. i remember him posting about members here being slow to take offence, and he is obviusly trying to push his luck smile

steven · Tennis legend

Funnily enough, I hadn't looked down the list to check the biggest fallers when I wrote the title to that section, so I didn't know it was going to be you. That said, I didn't think of changing it when I found it was you!

steven · Tennis legend

DAY 5 (THURSDAY) REPORT

Six of the top 8 seeds have made it to the quarter-finals, but on average people got less than 4.5 correct in R3, mainly because the majority expected three of the top 8 seeds (Kolya, Numpty & Duckboy) to lose - both Stani and Berdbrain (the player Kolya actually beat) were picked to reach the QFs by more entrants than the Russian, while the other two beat the majority picks in their section, Potty and Simon respectively. This was counterbalanced a bit by Flake, one of the players seeded outside the top 8 to make it through, being the majority pick in his section, but the other, Tsonga, caused the biggest upset of the day when he beat Nole, though 29% of us saw it coming.

See http://www.britishtennis.net/Competitions.html for detailed results. A quick report follows:

TEAMS

The top three remained unchanged, but T4Y increased their lead over MTF to over a point for the first time and TAT in 3rd closed the gap on 2nd place slightly. Team CC continued their phoenix from the ashes act, rising another place to 4th, but fastest risers BT.net, up 5 to 5th, are only about 1/1000th of a point behind them! However, the R3 winners (no doubt thanks to Duckboy and Flake both winning) were the Ducklings, who moved up 4 to 7th.

All of the other teams moved down with Rusedski.co.uk, down 3 to 9th, falling the most despite a member of their team taking the individual lead, while the Murray teams are still locked together but are now in a battle to avoid last place, AM.com and JM.org both falling 2 to 10th and 11th respectively.

INDIVIDUALS - TOP 10

Remembering that Paris is where the serial muppets often have a good run and deciding that this was the day they would come out to play helped steven (GR), up 9 to 1st (I'm sure I know him from somewhere ... ), to be one of just two entrants who got the first seven winners correct today. The other entrant with 7/7 was Trisco (CC), but he clearly hadn't seen Kolya's protestations last week that he probably wouldn't be fit enough to play (or was sensible enough to ignore them!) and had gone with the Russian's 7-0 H2H v Berdbrain, so he ended up being the only entrant to get 8/8 for R3 as a whole and shot up 66 places to 2nd, just 1 point behind the leader!

5/8 in R3 was enough to keep one of yesterday's joint leaders, RG Champion hebegeebee (IN) in the top three, another point behind, while 6/8 in R3 saw TATKrutin (TA) move up 3 to 4th. Two more who scored maximum points on Wednesday, ChrisTaylor87 (TY) & Scotsguy (CC), share 5th place, down 2. Meanwhile, world no. 3 Wendy (AM), up 3 to 7th after being joint leader part way through the day, is making a determined bid for the year-end no. 1 spot - if Paris AMS stopped right now, she'd only be just one Paris point away. She is followed by Peter (GR), down 3 to 8th, and Strokel (RF) & Fiercehart (TA), who are sharing 9th place.

ON THE RISE

The other two entrants who got 7/8 correct in R3 were jasonblueboy (IN), up 50 to 12th, and the day's highest riser, DR4Life (AM), up 118 to 38th.

DODGY DROPPERS

World no. 1 and yesterday's joint leader Ashley Harkleroad's ***** (IN) got just 3/8 correct in R3 (his Monfils to beat Rafa prediction being particularly costly) and slides 29 places to 30th, putting his overall no. 1 spot a bit more at risk - see above.

Coincidentally, the next person in the table who only got 3/8 correct today was world no. 2 Flintstone (IN), down 76 to 90th, and the next after that was R1 winner alex_k (MT), down 76 to 103rd - if he had any "beginner's luck", it seems to have well and truly run out! However, the biggest faller was one of the few entrants who got just 2/8 correct today, Gillyflower (GR), down 118 to 146th.

OUTLOOK

As the WP SLR column on the main table shows, Nole's loss today leaves just 31 entrants with all four semi-finalists having survived R3, including the top two and three more of the top 20, but also Martini4me (TA), who is current languishing in 171st place, but clearly has the potential to make big strides up the table tomorrow.

Everyone has at least one semi-finalist left, but five people have only one, including Akhenaten (BT), who somehow manages to be in 67= (possibly not for long ...) despite this!

The lowest-placed of those with just one player left is much loved GBF (*) Sallydaisy (JM) in 196=, which must make her the favourite to retain the 'lanterne rouge' she 'won' at Paris AMS last year, when as this year she was at Bercy watching the action. As she says "I'm not surprised to see that I'll probably be spending Christmas with Kingkong. Honestly - what was I thinking of watching tennis in Paris??? I should have been in there nobbling the assorted malingerers and serial muppets!!!" Exactly! Still, she has picked Muzza to win, so it looks like either he wins three AMS titles this year or she wins three AMS pick 'em lanternes rouges this year - there should be something to celebrate either way then!

(*) GBF = gorillas' best friend

QF PREVIEW

13.00 GMT - CC: Muzza 79% v Numpty 10%
followed by - CC: Rafa 92% v Kolya 1%
18.45 GMT - CC: Fed 91% v Flake 1%
followed by - CC: Tsonga 18% v Duckboy 9%

Clearly the matches likely to have the biggest short-term effect on the tables are the first one and the last one, though shocks in any of the matches could end the hopes of those who have picked the shocked player as their winner and wins for Kolya or Flake would give a big boost to the entrants who picked them!

Nickname help - http://www.andymurray.com/forum/showthread.php?t=253

mjd · Challenger qualifying

Well that's me finished -

Roger Federer has withdrawn ahead of his match with James Blake because of a stiff back.

Correction
No, I am not finished, I have 2 of the semifinalists - I forgot I had backed Nadal and not Fed to win and Tsonga to win 1/4 final. I see that one brave/clever/lucky? person has Tsonga for champion! Will watch with interest.

-- Edited by mjd at 00:16, 2008-11-01

ForeverDelayed · Grand Slam Champion

Nalby's win keeps me alive in the hope for a good finish, and Fed's withdrawal means that I was right in predicting that he would withdraw, but just got the round wrong!!

mjd · Challenger qualifying

But now I AM finished with no one left in the draw - Nadal retires at 1-6 with a knee injury.

So the unlikely semi finalists are -

DAVYDENKO vs NALBANDIAN

TSONGA vs BLAKE

-- Edited by mjd at 00:30, 2008-11-01

Count Zero · Tennis legend

Hmm, shafted i am
picks i have screwed

steven · Tennis legend

DAY 6 (FRIDAY) REPORT

Well who'd have thought I'd have the higher-ranked player in every QF and end up with nul points? The semi-finalists were picked by just 18% (Tsonga), 10% (Numpty), 1% (Kolya) and 1% (Flake), so a few people shot up the table today thanks to some brave picks but most of us moved down a bit and now have nobody left, with only a Kolya v Flake Final to hope for to limit the damage. Two whole teams failed to score today!

See http://www.britishtennis.net/Competitions.html for detailed results. A report follows:

TEAMS

T4Y stayed at the top for yet another day (what a tournament this has been for them!) but MTF closed the gap a fair bit, while the Numpty-fanciers from BT.net helped their team to win the QF round and jump into the top 3 ahead of TAT and Team CC, who both lost a place but remain marginally ahead of the Dammitaires in 6th.

In the bottom half of the table, the Feddies, up 1 to 7th, profited from a reversal of fortune for the Ducklings, down 1 to 8th, who followed up their R3 win with a no-pointer in the QFs, a fate which also befell Rusedski.co.uk in 9th. The Murray teams both scored more than half a point, but JM.org, up 1 to 10th, did slightly better than AM.com, who have dropped to last.

TEAMS OUTLOOK

T4Y and MTF are now certain to finish in the top three, with BT and RG fighting it out for the remaining place on the podium. T4Y will win unless Numpty beats Flake in the Final (in which case MTF will win) or loses to Tsonga in the Final, in which case RG can still nab the top spot and get the home win that Dammit himself never seems likely to achieve!

INDIVIDUALS - TOP 10

Just 8 entrants got 2/4 correct today, 43 got 1/4 and the other 148 of us failed to score! R3 winner trisco (CC) was one of those who got both Numpty & Tsonga right, and he has not only moved up a place into the top spot but has also opened up a big 6 point lead! Wendy (AM) has moved back up to 2nd, gaining 5 places after getting one semi-finalist correct, and these are the only two players in the top 6 who can still add to their points totals.

Like the leader, Johnnylad (BT) had both Numpty and Tsonga getting to the semis and that lifted him 25 places into 3rd but he has not picked either of them to reach the Final, while conchita (TY)'s 1/4 was enough to gain her 4th place with a 7-point rise ahead of the overnight leader me (GR) (my questionable sanity was, well, questioned on TAT when I tried be consistent throughout the report and referred to myself in the third person yesterday!), down 4 to 5th.

Other players flying up into the top 10 after getting 2/4 are fah51 (CC), up 27 to 6th, shotgun (MT), up 37 to 7th and the only person in the top 10 with their winner pick (Numpty) still intact, and JAZZ BURKS (TN), up 41 to 8th and the only entrant to get 2/4 semi-finalists without picking Tsonga - he picked Kolya and Numpty, with the other entrant who picked Kolya (sid (TY), up 42 to 111=) and the two who picked Flake (jm-fan (JM), up 41 to 119=, and Goldenslam (BT), up 18 to 173rd) only getting one semi-finalist right, even if it was an inspired pick in each case!

hebegeebee (IN), down 6 to 9th, and TATKrutin (TA), down 6 to 10th, both managed to keep a foothold in the top 10 despite not scoring in the QFs.

ON THE RISE

The biggest risers were the three entrants who scored 2/4 but started the day outside the top 50 - boumboum (RG), up 50 to 12th, Daniel/Belgarath1981 (RF), up 68 to 32nd, and rawr (RF), up 87 to 57th.

DODGY DROPPERS

With so few entrants scoring points, nobody saw so many people overtake them that they dropped dozens of places - the fastest faller was world no. 1 and Wednesday's joint leader Ashley Harkleroad's ***** (IN), down 22 to 52nd.

After Muzza lost, Sallydaisy (JM) looked odds on to pick up her second successive Paris AMS lanterne rouge, but was saved (or do I mean foiled?!) by Fed's withdrawal, which ensured that WallaceEMann (GR), the one tennis official in our ranks, will finish closest to King Kong.

OUTLOOK

Just 19 entrants can score any more points at all - the 6% who went for defending champion Numpty to reach the Final and the 4% who went for Tsonga to do the same. Only 12th placed boumboum (RG) picked a Numpty-Tsonga Final and he will win if Tsonga wins the title, with trisco (CC)'s 6-point lead enough for him to hold on under any other scenario.

Those two and top Numpty-to-win picker shotgun (MT) can finish in the top three, as can Johnnylad (BT), t12j23r90 (AM) and Wendy (AM) - the latter will, as far as I can tell (E&OE!), end up as year-end number 1 unless we get a Tsonga v Davydenko Final - her exact final position in Paris and how far she ends up above the average score being all-important. Indeed, if Nalbandian beats Tsonga in the Final, she will be year end no. 1 without a podium finish in any tournament - just think of her as an advanced form of Jelena Jankovic!

There is still plenty to play for lower down the table, with top ten places in Paris very much up for grabs and the remaining results likely to have some effect on your ranking point total for the tournament (if only by moving the average score around) as long as you are not outside the top 125 - if you are, your final position and ranking points are already fixed.

Nickname help - http://www.andymurray.com/forum/showthread.php?t=253

johnnylad · Tennis legend

Could be my first top ten finish

steven · Tennis legend

Yes, 8th or 9th - FD could still dislodge you from 8th.

DAY 7 (SATURDAY) REPORT

Today's results were the worst possible for the vast majority of us who coudn't score ... and the only combination that could stop me finishing in the top 10. I think we all expected a Numpty-Tsonga Final when we saw the semi-final line-up though and who wins our team and individual competitions will depend on who wins the Final tomorrow.

See http://www.britishtennis.net/Competitions.html for detailed results. A report follows:

TEAMS

T4Y held onto the top spot despite not scoring today, but the Dammitaires shot up 4 to 2nd. They will win if Tsonga wins and finish 3rd if he doesn't, while T4Y and MTF have secured the other top three places and will finish in that order, either as 1st & 2nd or 2nd & 3rd.

The only significant move in the other direction was TAT dropping 2 to 6th, while AM.com jumped (and will stay) ahead of JM.org in the battle to avoid last place.

INDIVIDUALS - TOP 10

Trisco (CC) held onto his lead by getting one finalist correct, but he needed the cushion he provided himself with when he was the only entrant to get all eight quarter-finalists correct because boumboum (RG), the only entrant to get both finalists correct, has moved up 10 to 2nd and will make it a home (i.e. French) triple (Tsonga winning the title, RG winning the teams comp and boumboum winning the individual comp) if Jo-Wilfried wins tomorrow.

Wendy (AM), who also got one finalist right, dropped 1 place to 3rd, but should now definitely be the year-end no. 1 (though I'd advise that she waits until this is confirmed on the ranking list tomorrow before opening any bottles!), but shotgun (MT), up 3 to 4th, one of just two entrants who picked Numpty to defend his title, could take away Wendy's Paris top 3 slot and finish 2nd if the Argentine wins tomorrow.

The next three - JAZZ BURKS (TN), up 3 to 5th, t12j23r90 (AM), up 9 to 6th, and bangkok (IN), up 10 to 8th - also got one finalist correct, as did Sound (AM), up 17 to 9th. Johnnylad (BT), down 5 to 8th, and conchita (TY), down 6 to 10th, were the only entrants who didn't score today to hang on in the top 10.

WHAT ABOUT THE DEFENDING CHAMPION?

Defending Paris AMS pick 'em Champion ForeverDelayed (BT), up 38 to 35th today, is the other entrant who picked Numpty to win, and he will finish in the top 8 if that tactic works for him for the second year in a row.

So, despite only three people having picked either finalist as their winner, 32 entrants (the current top 4 and 8th-35th) still don't know exactly where they are going to finish.

UPS and DOWNS

The biggest riser was Wolfey (IN), up 54 to 71st.

The biggest faller was mysterX (TA), down 9 to 20th.

Nickname help - http://www.andymurray.com/forum/showthread.php?t=253

ForeverDelayed · Grand Slam Champion

Looks like my continual belief in Numpty is finally going to pay off and give me a decent result, although if I hadn't have been fooled by Davydenko saying he wouldn't play (I'd have had him in the semi's) and Gasquet had an ounce on fight in him and played the event, I could well have defended the title

steven · Tennis legend

PARIS AMS - FINAL REPORT

Only two changes to report today, albeit bery important ones. Congratulations to boumboum (RG), up 1 to 1st in the individual comp at the expense of trisco (CC), RichardGasquet.net, up 1 to 1st in the teams comp at the expense of Tennis4you, and of course to 'Jo' Tsonga, up to 1st in Paris AMS at the expense of Numpty! Those were the only movements in the tables today.

AN APPROPRIATE WINNER?

La boum is a rather outmoded French word for a party (as in the 1980 film starring Sophie Marceau among others) and le boum is a bang, so the winner's nickname is quite appropriate, because I'm sure there will have been the odd party in Paris tonight that went with more than a bang!

A NICE SENSE OF BALANCE

This tournament provided the best evidence yet that this year's new scoring system (1,2, 3, 4, ... instead of the 1, 2, 4, 8, ... used in 2007) is working well in its stated aim of balancing the effects of different rounds - had Numpty won, the top three would have included 1) the entrant who got all of the quarter-finalists right, 2) the entrant who got both finalists right and 3) one of the two entrants who got the winner right - you can't get much more balanced than that!

Having said that, the R1 winner didn't even finish in the top 100, but that's largely because there were so many top players with R1 byes that even the upsets in R1 had very little bearing on what happened in the later rounds.

OVERALL RANKINGS

Some of you might have noticed that the winner's ranking point haul from this tournament (992) is a new record, only 8 shy of the magic 1000!

This was exactly how the ranking bonus points were designed to work, i.e. ensuring that if a tournament turns out to be less predictable than usual (the objective measure used for this in the bonus points formula is that the average % score is low - see the formulae at the top of the overall ranking list), then anyone who gambles on more risky picks and gets them right is rewarded with more ranking points than those who finish high up in tournaments that you could finish high up in solely by following the rankings, hence providing a bit of an incentive for at least some people not to make the same 'boring' picks just to play safe.

Of course, unpredictable tournaments don't always produce higher ranking scores for the winners - they won't if everybody loses all their remaining picks in the QFs, for example!

Anyway, I think boumboum fully deserves his huge ranking point haul given that as well as being the only player who picked the winner, he was also the only entrant who got both finalists (I hope he had a bet on it too, he'd have made a small fortune! LOL) and it does seem quite amazing that the Dammitaires should have so much to celebrate when the first major 'event' of this pick 'em was their hero pulling out! Maybe their patriotic pickers know to trust Tsonga or Monfils over Dammit these days ...

YEAR END NO 1s

Many congratulations to Wendy (AM), whose 3rd place in Paris has lifted her to the top of the year-end rankings - ASE (AM) and her are the only two players to have finished in the top 10 in both years, though a couple more of last year's top 10 finished in the top 20 this year, which is as good if not better than top 10 last year given the explosion in the number of entrants.

Congratulations too to Team CC, who managed to remain at no. 1 in the overall team rankings too.

AND FINALLY ...

Final Paris results, an updated hall of fame and the year-end rankings can be found at http://www.britishtennis.net/Competitions.html?n=1 and there is a full 4-part report on the year-end rankings (2 parts done, two shorter ones to follow in the next couple of days) at http://www.andymurray.com/forum/show...t=247&p=128266 which also explains a couple of changes to the presentation that you might have noticed.

Thank you for playing this year, hope you had fun - Australian Open pick 'em entries will open sometime on Friday 16 January 2009 ... see you there!

steven · Tennis legend

PARIS - final teams table, changes are for Sunday

1 up 1 RichardGasquet.net
2 dn 1 Tennis4you.com
3 same MensTennisForums
4 same BritishTennis.net
5 same Centre Court Forum
6 same TalkAboutTennis
7 same RogerFederer.com
8 same AndyRoddick.com
9 same Rusedski.co.uk
10 same AndyMurray.com
11 same JamieMurray.org

PARIS - BTs in INDIVIDUAL, changes are for Sunday

8 same Johnnylad
17 same Akhenaten
31 same John
33 same MJD
35 same ForeverDelayed
36 same goldfish
39 same The Hoose
41 same Malteaser
58 same Imoen
59 same Abc
72 same JM1138
81 same Grundon
106 same Christian
116 same Dusty Dick
129 same Count Zero
136 same eblunt
145 same Robxon
147 same Beunhaasje
153 same wolf
161 same ian carlisle
161 same Smidster
173 same Goldenslam

YEAR-END OVERALL TEAMS - changes are since Madrid

1 same Centre Court Forum
2 same AndyMurray.com
3 same Rusedski.co.uk
4 same BritishTennis.net
5 up 1 RichardGasquet.net
6 dn 1 TalkAboutTennis.com
7 up 1 Tennis4you.com
8 dn 1 MensTennisForums
9 same JamieMurray.org
10 same RogerFederer.com
11 same AndyRoddick.com
12 same Tennisopolis.com
13 same BBC 606 boards
14 same VamosBrigade.com
15 same LleytonHewitt.biz
16 same Novak-Djokovic.com
17 same MarkKnowlesTennis

YEAR-END OVERALL - BTs in INDIVIDUAL, changes are since Madrid

13 dn 1 Dusty Dick
16 up 19 Akhenaten
19 dn 1 CBV
20 dn 7 goldfish
22 dn 2 eblunt
42 dn 3 The Shedman
47 dn 5 Mkkreuk
51 dn 6 wolf
53 dn 15 Robxon
80 dn 11 Grundon
84 dn 10 Count Zero
87 up 15 MJD
96 dn 25 ForeverDelayed
117 dn 2 David Carter
120 dn 41 seagull
124 dn 2 Tim G
133 up 19 Imoen
135 up 43 John
139 dn 6 ian carlisle
151 up 64 Johnnylad
152 dn 8 marat99
155 up 24 The Hoose
158 up 15 Abc
166 dn 10 Michael (BT)
170 dn 9 S&V
171 dn 9 Goldenslam
174 dn 9 Jean-Marc
180 dn 31 Josh
190 dn 6 jamatthews
226 up 68 Malteaser
230 up 29 Christian
232 dn 10 rossyyy
233 dn 9 Smidster
243 dn 10 Silver
264 dn 2 RedCabbage
265 dn 2 RobC
276 dn 2 edward seator
279 dn 1 Matt Bradford
283 dn 2 Greenleaf
304 dn 5 RobH
308 up 74 JM1138
312 dn 92 Guy
321 dn 7 Gazzpash
351 dn 7 Drew
418 up 2 James (BT)
432 dn 1 MIKE5119
442 dn 1 Blakey1
492 dn 1 Jack (BT)
507 dn 2 afe
518 same jazar
531 up 51 Beunhaasje
563 dn 1 djlovesyou
679 up 1 bonbon
722 up 2 dette
764 dn 240 Aria81
768 dn 1 Jimbo