So Rafa will be year end WR 1 and the new WR 3 after Paris will be Sascha Zverev ( after Thiem, Dimitrov and Cilic fell some way short of winning the title that would have made one of them WR 3 after Zverev's early exit ) with less than half WR 2 Federer's points.
Post Paris :
1. Nadal 10645 2. Federer 9005 3. A Zverev 4410
Currently, in running 15. Murray 2290 though Isner and Sock can both overtake Andy if they reach the Paris final ( and as said in the ATP World Tour Finals thread the title for either would see them rise high enough to qualify them for the O2 ).
4,400 points must be up there (down there?) as one of the lowest points tallies for a WR3 since the points system was overhauled.
One wonders where messrs Nadal, Federer, and Zverev will be ranked once Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Nishikori, and Raonic are back in the picture and Del Potro has a full season's tally of points...
When you look at it like that, it really makes you realise how incredibly weak the top 10 is at the moment with many players seriously over-ranked due to six of the world's best all missing significant chunks of the season. Depending on the level the aforementioned six get back to (the foremost three are all past 30 now), most of the current top 10 may well find themselves well outside it and indeed unlikely to ever get back there again. Reminds of the period the likes of Troicki and Melzer (and possibly Youzhny too?) made the top 10.
4,400 points must be up there (down there?) as one of the lowest points tallies for a WR3 since the points system was overhauled.
One wonders where messrs Nadal, Federer, and Zverev will be ranked once Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Nishikori, and Raonic are back in the picture and Del Potro has a full season's tally of points...
When you look at it like that, it really makes you realise how incredibly weak the top 10 is at the moment with many players seriously over-ranked due to six of the world's best all missing significant chunks of the season. Depending on the level the aforementioned six get back to (the foremost three are all past 30 now), most of the current top 10 may well find themselves well outside it and indeed unlikely to ever get back there again. Reminds of the period the likes of Troicki and Melzer (and possibly Youzhny too?) made the top 10.
Indeed, the previous end of year lowest since the 2009 overhaul was Miles Raonic last year with 5,450 points so Sascha Zverev would need to win the ATP Finals title to beat that. Last year similarly had two players ending miles ahead in 1. Murray 12,410 and 2. Djokovic 11,780. What a difference a year makes! In 5 of these past 8 years the end of year WR 3 had 8,000 points or more.
I don't know what the lowest points at any time for a WR 3 has been, but I imagine Zverev is right in there. and possibly has it on Monday.
Without other than Sock doing a great deal in Paris, more due to combined Paris and 02 points coming off others who generally drop to even more anomalous positions, half the new top 10 will set new CHs on Monday - Zverev 3, Thiem 4, Dimitrov 6, Goffin 8 and Sock 9.
Having claimed a SF place in Rotterdam, Federer will return to the top of the rankings on Monday.
It will be over 14 years since he first went to #1 and over 5 years 3 months since he was last there.
Since Fed first went to #1, up to and including this coming Monday will make it 734 weeks in a row that the spot has been held by one of the big 4, the last previous WR 1 being Andy Roddick. And it won't be taken by anyone else anytime soon.
Total weeks: Federer 303 Djokovic 223 Nadal 167 Murray 41
Great work by Sascha Zverev at the ATP finals but he is not close enough to prevent 15 years ( 784 weeks ) of the big 4 sharing the WR 1 position come the 04/02/19 rankings. This run started when Fed first became WR 1 on 02/02/04.
The number of weeks up to the start of the Australian Open on 14/01/19 will be :
Federer - 310 weeks (1st in total weeks of the 26 #1s since 1973) Djokovic - 234 (5th) Nadal - 196 (6th) Murray - 41 (14th)
The rankings at 27/05 going into the French Open will see 'the big 4' reach 800 successive weeks at WR 1 without anyone else getting a look in. Or likely to anytime soon.
Federer 310 weeks Djokovic 253 Nadal 196 Murray 41
Could Dominic Thiem be the player that ends the over 16 year dynasty of one of 4 players being ATP #1?
Rankings at 14.09.20
1. N Djokovic 10860 points 2. R Nadal 9850 3. D Thiem 9125
In the short term Djoko has most chance to improve his points if he behaves ( 600 and 720 points from last year's Rome Masters and French Open respectively ). Nadal cannot improve on maximum points from these two events and Thiem only on his RU 1200 points from the French Open.
Not this year for Thiem. I think Novak and Rafa will hang on for one more year. But changing of the guard will happen this year for the new top 4 by Aus/French Open 2022. My prediction will be they year Rafa fails to win the French that it happens. I have him down for one more French in 2021 in the meantime.
Could Dominic Thiem be the player that ends the over 16 year dynasty of one of 4 players being ATP #1?
17 years, now.
If my maths is right, it will be 900 weeks sometime in May (5th?)
Edit: although that includes 22 weeks of limbo - I don't know if that counts or not?
-- Edited by christ on Monday 15th of February 2021 01:56:08 PM
Yes, it certainly can be said to be over 17 years since anyone else was #1.
Even not counting these 22 suspended weeks in the individual counts, according to wiki Djokovic is just about to pass Ferderer's total weeks at #1. The 22/02/21 rankings will take it to Federer 310 weeks, Djokovic 309 ( Nadal 209 ). And Djokovic will be #1 for a while yet.