Battle for the top

Jaggy1876 · Grand Slam Champion

Battle for the top

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Jaggy1876 wrote:

Surprised Murray seems to have now announced he is playing US Open that's a change to the original plan I believe. I wonder if the severely weakened field is the deciding factor, even an 80 per cent fit Murray is a stick on for minimum QF spot I'd say.

I doubt very much the strength of the field had anything to do with it and I certainly hope it didn't. He is either fit or he isn't and if he's not 100% fit he shouldn't play.

indiana · Tennis legend

Essentially agree Bob without getting into how rarely any player is absolutely 100% fit.

Some of the very best may be missing, which could actually help latter progress if Andy plays himself in and is fit enough to reach the QFs but there remain plenty good enough players that an 80% fit ( and rusty ) Andy would for me certainly be far from a stick on for reaching the QFs at all. So if he plays I trust he is a fair bit fitter than that.

Jaggy1876 · Grand Slam Champion

There are going to be at least 3 top 16 players missing the US Open main draw more slightly further down so if Andy plays he ll make the quarters Is be certain of that. If it's 50/50 I'm sure the missing players may tip it.

Still think he ll pull out anyway as I said last week without saying anything more.

Looking at the runs of Challenger players like Sugita and Donaldson should be a sign for the likes of Kyle and other challenger level guys that this Slam is a great chance to go deep.

indiana · Tennis legend

If just 3 of the top players ( Djokovic, Wawrinka and Nishikori ) are out of the US Open then the 13 to 16 seeds that Andy would be bracketed against for the L16 would still be WRs 16 to 19. Even say another couple out from the top 16 and the 13 to 16 seeds would be WRs 18 to 21.

Not likely to be a walk in the park apart from what other nasties could appear earlier and just not worth it if a fair way off full fitness. Much nearer full fitness, and I have seen no public info on his progress, then the odds change although Andy's general form for most of the year would still not lead me to such unbounded optimism re his QF chances, let alone the more he would seek.

-- Edited by indiana on Friday 18th of August 2017 10:14:48 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

Perhaps a bit unexpectedly Andy is in situ for the US Open and thus has a theoretical chance of an early return to WR 1 at least temporarily.

Very much just the three WR 1 contendors with the men. Net positions at the start of the US Open, deducting last year's US Open points with official Monday ranking positions in brackets:

1. (1) Nadal : 7645 - 180 = 7465
2. (3) Federer : 7145 - 0 = 7145
3. (2) Murray : 7150 - 360 = 6790

Winning the title would definitely return Andy to WR 1. He would have to reach the SF to have any chance. And all very much well 'in theory'.

Jaggy1876 · Grand Slam Champion

Jaggy1876 wrote:
There are going to be at least 3 top 16 players missing the US Open main draw more slightly further down so if Andy plays he ll make the quarters Is be certain of that. If it's 50/50 I'm sure the missing players may tip it.

Still think he ll pull out anyway as I said last week without saying anything more.

Looking at the runs of Challenger players like Sugita and Donaldson should be a sign for the likes of Kyle and other challenger level guys that this Slam is a great chance to go deep.

Hiya Indiana pal (I did tell you)

Just about everyone connected with Andy including Lendl I believe told him to withdraw. As I said the growing list of withdrawals was the reason he contemplated playing despite everyone telling him otherwise.

-- Edited by Jaggy1876 on Saturday 26th of August 2017 08:20:40 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

So Rafa will be year end WR 1 and the new WR 3 after Paris will be Sascha Zverev ( after Thiem, Dimitrov and Cilic fell some way short of winning the title that would have made one of them WR 3 after Zverev's early exit ) with less than half WR 2 Federer's points.

Post Paris :

1. Nadal 10645
2. Federer 9005
3. A Zverev 4410

Currently, in running 15. Murray 2290 though Isner and Sock can both overtake Andy if they reach the Paris final ( and as said in the ATP World Tour Finals thread the title for either would see them rise high enough to qualify them for the O2 ).

TMH · Futures qualifying

4,400 points must be up there (down there?) as one of the lowest points tallies for a WR3 since the points system was overhauled.

One wonders where messrs Nadal, Federer, and Zverev will be ranked once Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Nishikori, and Raonic are back in the picture and Del Potro has a full season's tally of points...

When you look at it like that, it really makes you realise how incredibly weak the top 10 is at the moment with many players seriously over-ranked due to six of the world's best all missing significant chunks of the season. Depending on the level the aforementioned six get back to (the foremost three are all past 30 now), most of the current top 10 may well find themselves well outside it and indeed unlikely to ever get back there again. Reminds of the period the likes of Troicki and Melzer (and possibly Youzhny too?) made the top 10.

indiana · Tennis legend

TMH wrote:
4,400 points must be up there (down there?) as one of the lowest points tallies for a WR3 since the points system was overhauled.

One wonders where messrs Nadal, Federer, and Zverev will be ranked once Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Nishikori, and Raonic are back in the picture and Del Potro has a full season's tally of points...

When you look at it like that, it really makes you realise how incredibly weak the top 10 is at the moment with many players seriously over-ranked due to six of the world's best all missing significant chunks of the season. Depending on the level the aforementioned six get back to (the foremost three are all past 30 now), most of the current top 10 may well find themselves well outside it and indeed unlikely to ever get back there again. Reminds of the period the likes of Troicki and Melzer (and possibly Youzhny too?) made the top 10.

Indeed, the previous end of year lowest since the 2009 overhaul was Miles Raonic last year with 5,450 points so Sascha Zverev would need to win the ATP Finals title to beat that. Last year similarly had two players ending miles ahead in 1. Murray 12,410 and 2. Djokovic 11,780. What a difference a year makes! In 5 of these past 8 years the end of year WR 3 had 8,000 points or more.

I don't know what the lowest points at any time for a WR 3 has been, but I imagine Zverev is right in there. and possibly has it on Monday.

Without other than Sock doing a great deal in Paris, more due to combined Paris and 02 points coming off others who generally drop to even more anomalous positions, half the new top 10 will set new CHs on Monday - Zverev 3, Thiem 4, Dimitrov 6, Goffin 8 and Sock 9.

indiana · Tennis legend

Having claimed a SF place in Rotterdam, Federer will return to the top of the rankings on Monday.

It will be over 14 years since he first went to #1 and over 5 years 3 months since he was last there.

Since Fed first went to #1, up to and including this coming Monday will make it 734 weeks in a row that the spot has been held by one of the big 4, the last previous WR 1 being Andy Roddick. And it won't be taken by anyone else anytime soon.

Total weeks:
Federer 303
Djokovic 223
Nadal 167
Murray 41

Whoures58 · Improver

Not sure Andy can crack the top 3 again to be honest. Top 10 is guaranteed tho

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Whoures58 wrote:
Not sure Andy can crack the top 3 again to be honest. Top 10 is guaranteed tho

We like an optimist smile

(Top ten is pretty good......)

Whoures58 · Improver

Andy is right up there. Regardless of what anyone says. The countdown to Brisbane has started

Whoures58 · Improver

Yeah, this season has been weird so far. Djokovic and Roger calling the shots now that Nadal and Andy are out. Next year has to be better