Battle for the top

theemptyvessel · Club Coach

Battle for the top

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

theemptyvessel wrote:
Right now I would say Sascha Zverev is the most likely to break the monopoly, his progress has been incredible over the last 18 months and frankly none of the other next gen stars are close, even Thiem.

In terms of his tennis, Sascha is a golden child and has been my favourite for the last couple of years. Have never really taken to Thiem although he's achieved some excellent results and ranking.

Got a growing soft spot for young Shapo, though......

the addict · Tennis legend

So Federer has now pulled out of Cincinati, leaving the way clear for Rafa. And Roger will be just 5 points behind Andy

The entry list for the USO could make interesting reading ........

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

JonH wrote:
Guardian reporting that Stan has been ruled out for the rest of season, joining Novak on the sides now. It probably means a) that Andy cant feasibly fall below 3rd in the rankings (remember at Wimbledon both Novak and Stan could have reached top spot!) b) the Tour Finals will be depleted now although we may see some new names come to the fore - at the moment Cilic is also injured and Andy's position in unclear - 9th and 10th spots are filled by Berdych (ok not a new name) and Dimitrov with Goffin in 11th...
Proving to be a very interesting season.

Now Nishikori has pulled out for the rest of the season. They are going down like flies at the moment.

TMH · Futures qualifying

This season has been an absolute farce.

Jaggy1876 · Grand Slam Champion

I agree men's tennis is becoming a bit of a joke. Nadal will be number 1 by default this year with Fed at number 2. A fit Stan, Novak and Andy I doubt this would be the case.

Surprised Murray seems to have now announced he is playing US Open that's a change to the original plan I believe. I wonder if the severely weakened field is the deciding factor, even an 80 per cent fit Murray is a stick on for minimum QF spot I'd say.

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Jaggy1876 wrote:

Surprised Murray seems to have now announced he is playing US Open that's a change to the original plan I believe. I wonder if the severely weakened field is the deciding factor, even an 80 per cent fit Murray is a stick on for minimum QF spot I'd say.

I doubt very much the strength of the field had anything to do with it and I certainly hope it didn't. He is either fit or he isn't and if he's not 100% fit he shouldn't play.

indiana · Tennis legend

Essentially agree Bob without getting into how rarely any player is absolutely 100% fit.

Some of the very best may be missing, which could actually help latter progress if Andy plays himself in and is fit enough to reach the QFs but there remain plenty good enough players that an 80% fit ( and rusty ) Andy would for me certainly be far from a stick on for reaching the QFs at all. So if he plays I trust he is a fair bit fitter than that.

Jaggy1876 · Grand Slam Champion

There are going to be at least 3 top 16 players missing the US Open main draw more slightly further down so if Andy plays he ll make the quarters Is be certain of that. If it's 50/50 I'm sure the missing players may tip it.

Still think he ll pull out anyway as I said last week without saying anything more.

Looking at the runs of Challenger players like Sugita and Donaldson should be a sign for the likes of Kyle and other challenger level guys that this Slam is a great chance to go deep.

indiana · Tennis legend

If just 3 of the top players ( Djokovic, Wawrinka and Nishikori ) are out of the US Open then the 13 to 16 seeds that Andy would be bracketed against for the L16 would still be WRs 16 to 19. Even say another couple out from the top 16 and the 13 to 16 seeds would be WRs 18 to 21.

Not likely to be a walk in the park apart from what other nasties could appear earlier and just not worth it if a fair way off full fitness. Much nearer full fitness, and I have seen no public info on his progress, then the odds change although Andy's general form for most of the year would still not lead me to such unbounded optimism re his QF chances, let alone the more he would seek.

-- Edited by indiana on Friday 18th of August 2017 10:14:48 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

Perhaps a bit unexpectedly Andy is in situ for the US Open and thus has a theoretical chance of an early return to WR 1 at least temporarily.

Very much just the three WR 1 contendors with the men. Net positions at the start of the US Open, deducting last year's US Open points with official Monday ranking positions in brackets:

1. (1) Nadal : 7645 - 180 = 7465
2. (3) Federer : 7145 - 0 = 7145
3. (2) Murray : 7150 - 360 = 6790

Winning the title would definitely return Andy to WR 1. He would have to reach the SF to have any chance. And all very much well 'in theory'.

Jaggy1876 · Grand Slam Champion

Jaggy1876 wrote:
There are going to be at least 3 top 16 players missing the US Open main draw more slightly further down so if Andy plays he ll make the quarters Is be certain of that. If it's 50/50 I'm sure the missing players may tip it.

Still think he ll pull out anyway as I said last week without saying anything more.

Looking at the runs of Challenger players like Sugita and Donaldson should be a sign for the likes of Kyle and other challenger level guys that this Slam is a great chance to go deep.

Hiya Indiana pal (I did tell you)

Just about everyone connected with Andy including Lendl I believe told him to withdraw. As I said the growing list of withdrawals was the reason he contemplated playing despite everyone telling him otherwise.

-- Edited by Jaggy1876 on Saturday 26th of August 2017 08:20:40 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

So Rafa will be year end WR 1 and the new WR 3 after Paris will be Sascha Zverev ( after Thiem, Dimitrov and Cilic fell some way short of winning the title that would have made one of them WR 3 after Zverev's early exit ) with less than half WR 2 Federer's points.

Post Paris :

1. Nadal 10645
2. Federer 9005
3. A Zverev 4410

Currently, in running 15. Murray 2290 though Isner and Sock can both overtake Andy if they reach the Paris final ( and as said in the ATP World Tour Finals thread the title for either would see them rise high enough to qualify them for the O2 ).

TMH · Futures qualifying

4,400 points must be up there (down there?) as one of the lowest points tallies for a WR3 since the points system was overhauled.

One wonders where messrs Nadal, Federer, and Zverev will be ranked once Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Nishikori, and Raonic are back in the picture and Del Potro has a full season's tally of points...

When you look at it like that, it really makes you realise how incredibly weak the top 10 is at the moment with many players seriously over-ranked due to six of the world's best all missing significant chunks of the season. Depending on the level the aforementioned six get back to (the foremost three are all past 30 now), most of the current top 10 may well find themselves well outside it and indeed unlikely to ever get back there again. Reminds of the period the likes of Troicki and Melzer (and possibly Youzhny too?) made the top 10.

indiana · Tennis legend

TMH wrote:
4,400 points must be up there (down there?) as one of the lowest points tallies for a WR3 since the points system was overhauled.

One wonders where messrs Nadal, Federer, and Zverev will be ranked once Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Nishikori, and Raonic are back in the picture and Del Potro has a full season's tally of points...

When you look at it like that, it really makes you realise how incredibly weak the top 10 is at the moment with many players seriously over-ranked due to six of the world's best all missing significant chunks of the season. Depending on the level the aforementioned six get back to (the foremost three are all past 30 now), most of the current top 10 may well find themselves well outside it and indeed unlikely to ever get back there again. Reminds of the period the likes of Troicki and Melzer (and possibly Youzhny too?) made the top 10.

Indeed, the previous end of year lowest since the 2009 overhaul was Miles Raonic last year with 5,450 points so Sascha Zverev would need to win the ATP Finals title to beat that. Last year similarly had two players ending miles ahead in 1. Murray 12,410 and 2. Djokovic 11,780. What a difference a year makes! In 5 of these past 8 years the end of year WR 3 had 8,000 points or more.

I don't know what the lowest points at any time for a WR 3 has been, but I imagine Zverev is right in there. and possibly has it on Monday.

Without other than Sock doing a great deal in Paris, more due to combined Paris and 02 points coming off others who generally drop to even more anomalous positions, half the new top 10 will set new CHs on Monday - Zverev 3, Thiem 4, Dimitrov 6, Goffin 8 and Sock 9.