So if I understand things correctly, if Andy beats Querrey in his QF, he is guaranteed to stay Nº1 post Wimbledon.

If Andy is still WR 1 after Wimbledon that's 37 weeks.

He then has nothing to defend until his Cincinnati RU points come off on 21/08. If he's still WR 1 on 14/08 he moves ahead of Nastase - #14 on the list with 40 weeks.

If he can get to the start of the US Open still #1 then he will move ahead of #13 Kuerten 43 weeks ( Andy would clock up 44 weeks at the midpoint of the US Open ).

Next up at #12 is Courier 58 weeks, so basically would in this run need over a whole year at #1, effectively win the race again, but he is still only #7 in the live race just now and we know that after the US Open ( defends 360 points there ) his points defences get very silly.

So up to #13 in accumulated weeks looks the best hope in this run.

Don't know who that was. Anyway I predicted Nadal. It can be fun to be wrong At least he got further than Ka Pliskova !

Could Andy get some company? If Jo beats Halep today, that would take her to WR4, and apparently still way short of the top spot.

But while Jo has around 1,000 points to defend by end of the US Open, the three players above her have far more - Pliskova 2,200+, Halep 2,000+, Kerber 2,900ish.

Yes, just such a pity it's confirmed on the day Andy exits Wimbledon injury afflicted, but then Novak, the only remaining guy that could then take over the #1 spot retires due to injury.

Having missed the Canadian Masters prior to Rio last year, Andy has nothing to drop off until his Cincinnati Masters RU spot 600 points on 21st August.

1. Murray : 9390 - 2000 = 7390 + 360 = 7750
2. Nadal : 7285 - 0 = 7285 + 180 = 7465

For now :

3. Djokovic : 6055 - 90 = 5965 + 360 = 6325
4. Wawrinka : 6175 - 45 = 6130 + 10 = 6140

5. Federer : 5265 - 720 = 4545 + 720 = 5265 ( max 6545 )
6. Cilic : 4235 - 360 = 3875 + 720 = 4595 ( max 5875 )

Jaggy1876 wrote:

---

I'd be curious to see how much the big 4 play before the US Open. I have a feeling that Federer has set a precedent now for the big 4 in resting from events. I know the requirements of playing a certain number of ATP Masters etc but I can see Nadal, Novak and Andy skipping events as they get older now even despite the relative youth of 4-5 years they have on Roger. Particularly as there as really no challengers to their thrones just now. It could be as long as another 3-4 years til we see a new breed. I can still see Andy, Novak, Rafa and Stan winning Slams for next 4-5 years yet. And continuing to dominate most of them.

---

 

Just over 2 months ago in the Madrid Masters thread, after Borna Coric had beaten Andy in R2, you posted:

"That's Andy Murray's last match in his 20s, changing of the guard time in tennis? Zverev, Thiem, Coric, Goffin all stepping up now.

It's actually looking unlikely Andy will be Top 4 never mind Number 1 at season end."

 

Now you could well be right re paragraph 2, especially now. But its the first paragraph I'd kind of recalled and went back and looked. I think you've got the bases well covered with that post and this latest one  

Yes I do remember that post Indiana. I don't do points scoring though unlike some it seems. Did you see the question mark in that statement? It was a question not a fact, not really even an opinion. For now it's been answered, hence my 3-4 current statement. I also said we'd have a clearer picture after Wimbledon did I not? But then you've been selective there of course. And people are allowed to change their opinion when presented with the facts. Also a British trait in many is to remain stoic and blindly loyal to what they believe in of course. I tend to be more open minded naturally.

Last bit remains true though, be very hard for Andy to be above Novak and Stan and he almost certainly won't be above Roger and Rafa. Doesn't take any hard sums to work that out.