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indiana


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Battle for the top
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With Fed coming through to win the Halle title the clear top 4 Wimbledon seeds, after the grass formula addition is applied, will be the traditional 'big 4' for apparently the first Slam since Wimbledon 2014.

Very tight though from #2 to #4, but it had seemed generally agreed that Novak had already secured the #2 seed position ( essentially due to his 2015 Wimbledon triumph ) and I make it that Fed has now sneaked into 3rd ( not that #3 vs #4 gives any theoretical advantage ).

Based on ranking points as at 26.06.17 plus 100% of all grass points earned in the previous 12 months plus 75% of the best single grass score in the 12 months previous to that :

1. Murray : 9390 + 2000 + ( .75 × 720 ) = 11930
2. Djokovic : 5805 + 90 + ( .75 × 2000 ) = 7395
3. Federer : 5265 + ( 720 + 500 ) + ( .75 × 1200 ) = 7385
4. Nadal : 7285 + 0 + ( .75 × 45 ) = 7319

5. Wawrinka : 6175 + 45 + ( .75 × 360 ) = 6490



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Sim


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With Stan losing has reduced the permutations for No.1. after Wimbledon.

I believe the following is true:

Andy will stay no.1 if he matches Rafa and if Novak wins reaches the quarters. (If Novak does not win only has to match Rafa)

Rafa will be no. 1 if he does better than Andy and if Novak wins Rafa reaches the quarters.

Novak will be no.1 if he wins and neither Andy or Rafa make the quarters.

 



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indiana


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Re Novak, with him having won Eastbourne, I make it that if he wins the title he will now be #1 if neither Andy or Rafa reach the SF ( QF would not be enough for either to stop Novak).



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Bob in Spain


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So if I understand things correctly, if Andy beats Querrey in his QF, he is guaranteed to stay Nē1 post Wimbledon.

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Sim


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Yes, and even if he loses he will still be no.1 unless Novak wins the title.

Still better to retain no. 1 status with a win.



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indiana


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If Andy is still WR 1 after Wimbledon that's 37 weeks.

He then has nothing to defend until his Cincinnati RU points come off on 21/08. If he's still WR 1 on 14/08 he moves ahead of Nastase - #14 on the list with 40 weeks.

If he can get to the start of the US Open still #1 then he will move ahead of #13 Kuerten 43 weeks ( Andy would clock up 44 weeks at the midpoint of the US Open ).

Next up at #12 is Courier 58 weeks, so basically would in this run need over a whole year at #1, effectively win the race again, but he is still only #7 in the live race just now and we know that after the US Open ( defends 360 points there ) his points defences get very silly.

So up to #13 in accumulated weeks looks the best hope in this run.



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Bob in Spain


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Guess he is just going to have to win Wimbledon then. I know somebody here predicted that wink



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indiana


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Don't know who that was. Anyway I predicted Nadal. It can be fun to be wrong At least he got further than Ka Pliskova !

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theemptyvessel


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Retaining Wimbledon and then adding the US Open would help to cover a lot of what he has to defend, simple really.

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wimdledont


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Could Andy get some company? If Jo beats Halep today, that would take her to WR4, and apparently still way short of the top spot.

But while Jo has around 1,000 points to defend by end of the US Open, the three players above her have far more - Pliskova 2,200+, Halep 2,000+, Kerber 2,900ish.

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Helen40


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Yay, Andy's staying at no1 for awhile longer . I'm not sure when Rafa's next tournament is to challenge him, or when more of Andy's points come off. In any case I'll take the extension. It's a shame it's due to injury, but I guess all part of professional tennis.

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indiana


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Yes, just such a pity it's confirmed on the day Andy exits Wimbledon injury afflicted, but then Novak, the only remaining guy that could then take over the #1 spot retires due to injury.

Having missed the Canadian Masters prior to Rio last year, Andy has nothing to drop off until his Cincinnati Masters RU spot 600 points on 21st August.

1. Murray : 9390 - 2000 = 7390 + 360 = 7750
2. Nadal : 7285 - 0 = 7285 + 180 = 7465

For now :

3. Djokovic : 6055 - 90 = 5965 + 360 = 6325
4. Wawrinka : 6175 - 45 = 6130 + 10 = 6140

5. Federer : 5265 - 720 = 4545 + 720 = 5265 ( max 6545 )
6. Cilic : 4235 - 360 = 3875 + 720 = 4595 ( max 5875 )



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Jaggy1876


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I'd be curious to see how much the big 4 play before the US Open. I have a feeling that Federer has set a precedent now for the big 4 in resting from events. I know the requirements of playing a certain number of ATP Masters etc but I can see Nadal, Novak and Andy skipping events as they get older now even despite the relative youth of 4-5 years they have on Roger. Particularly as there as really no challengers to their thrones just now. It could be as long as another 3-4 years til we see a new breed. I can still see Andy, Novak, Rafa and Stan winning Slams for next 4-5 years yet. And continuing to dominate most of them.

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indiana


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Jaggy1876 wrote:

I'd be curious to see how much the big 4 play before the US Open. I have a feeling that Federer has set a precedent now for the big 4 in resting from events. I know the requirements of playing a certain number of ATP Masters etc but I can see Nadal, Novak and Andy skipping events as they get older now even despite the relative youth of 4-5 years they have on Roger. Particularly as there as really no challengers to their thrones just now. It could be as long as another 3-4 years til we see a new breed. I can still see Andy, Novak, Rafa and Stan winning Slams for next 4-5 years yet. And continuing to dominate most of them.

 

Just over 2 months ago in the Madrid Masters thread, after Borna Coric had beaten Andy in R2, you posted:

"That's Andy Murray's last match in his 20s, changing of the guard time in tennis? Zverev, Thiem, Coric, Goffin all stepping up now.

It's actually looking unlikely Andy will be Top 4 never mind Number 1 at season end."

 

Now you could well be right re paragraph 2, especially now. But its the first paragraph I'd kind of recalled and went back and looked. I think you've got the bases well covered with that post and this latest one  



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Helen40


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Thanks Indy, so hopefully Andy will retain his no 1 spot until Cincy (at least). I'll take that, it's a month longer than I expected.

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