Aside from general concern about Andy's form ( and some discussion as to the extent of that concern has taken place in the Monte Carlo thread ), purely addressing the #1 outlook, by ( Novak ) default Andy continues to have a huge points lead as WR 1. That guaranteed position, almost whatever he does or doesn't do, keeps extending and will now certainly last until Queens, and much more realistically now until at least Wimbledon ( he would need to stretch that out until the 7th August rankings to match #14 Nastase's 40 weeks in total as WR 1 ).
Just imagine how far ahead Andy might be now if he'd had any sort of first few months of the year comparative to expectations. Ah well ...
As to the year as a whole, how much the big race lead Fed and Rafa have taken over Andy and Novak will ultimately count, is a tale still to unfold and will anyone else enter the equation ? ...
As I said in the MC thread I can see a historically low total for the year end #1 though if Fed just keeps winning when he appears ...
Mats Wilander Sweden 20
Andy Murray 29 (currently)
Ilie Nastase Romania 40 (Monday 7th August) - Montreal Masters 1000
Gustavo Kuerten Brazil 43 (28th August) - Week after Cincinnati Masters
Jim Courier US 58 (11th December)
Stefan Edberg Sweden 72
Lleyton Hewitt Australia 80
He only has 600 points to defend from Cincinnati, did he not play Montreal/Toronto last year? If he can hold on to no1. through Wimbledon he should have a good chance of getting passed Kuerten.
Andy gave last year's Canada Masters a miss prior to his Rio Olympic exploits. I believe he's reached the stage through length of service or something ( I forget the different criteria ) that he can miss a Masters or two without picking up a mandatory zero. Neither Canada nor Miami show on the ATP site as zero counters.
1. A Murray 9890
2. R Nadal 7285
3. S Wawrinka 6175
4. N Djokovic 5805
5. R Federer 4945
So Novak's relative woes have caught up with him in the rankings as Rafa in particular continues to surge. When might Andy's?
Taking off remaining 2016 grass points to get the guaranteed minimum points players will have going into Wimbledon, Andy still leads just, so Rafa would need to make up the difference at Queens to be the 'in running' #1 at the start of Wimbledon. Stan could also overtake Andy during Wimbledon, as for now could Novak.
1. A Murray 9890 - ( 500 + 2000 ) = 7390
2. R Nadal 7285 - 0 = 7285
3. S Wawrinka 6175 - 45 = 6130
4. N Djokovic 5805 - 90 = 5715
5. R Federer 4945 - ( 180 + 720 ) = 4045
So decent chance of Andy still being WR 1 after Wimbledon since now playing a bit better he must be reasonably confident of doing at least as well as Rafa on Wimbledon's grass, terrific as Rafa's clay form was. Plus Stan and Novak are probably too far back and Roger certainly is too far back.
An Andy vs Rafa Wimbledon final for the title and #1 ranking spot could be fun. Fed in particular may have other ideas on that one.
With Fed coming through to win the Halle title the clear top 4 Wimbledon seeds, after the grass formula addition is applied, will be the traditional 'big 4' for apparently the first Slam since Wimbledon 2014.
Very tight though from #2 to #4, but it had seemed generally agreed that Novak had already secured the #2 seed position ( essentially due to his 2015 Wimbledon triumph ) and I make it that Fed has now sneaked into 3rd ( not that #3 vs #4 gives any theoretical advantage ).
Based on ranking points as at 26.06.17 plus 100% of all grass points earned in the previous 12 months plus 75% of the best single grass score in the 12 months previous to that :
Re Novak, with him having won Eastbourne, I make it that if he wins the title he will now be #1 if neither Andy or Rafa reach the SF ( QF would not be enough for either to stop Novak).
If Andy is still WR 1 after Wimbledon that's 37 weeks.
He then has nothing to defend until his Cincinnati RU points come off on 21/08. If he's still WR 1 on 14/08 he moves ahead of Nastase - #14 on the list with 40 weeks.
If he can get to the start of the US Open still #1 then he will move ahead of #13 Kuerten 43 weeks ( Andy would clock up 44 weeks at the midpoint of the US Open ).
Next up at #12 is Courier 58 weeks, so basically would in this run need over a whole year at #1, effectively win the race again, but he is still only #7 in the live race just now and we know that after the US Open ( defends 360 points there ) his points defences get very silly.
So up to #13 in accumulated weeks looks the best hope in this run.
Could Andy get some company? If Jo beats Halep today, that would take her to WR4, and apparently still way short of the top spot.
But while Jo has around 1,000 points to defend by end of the US Open, the three players above her have far more - Pliskova 2,200+, Halep 2,000+, Kerber 2,900ish.