Battle for the top

indiana · Tennis legend

Battle for the top

TMH · Futures qualifying

With these two so out of sorts, it leaves the door at least ajar for someone else to sneak up on them for top spot.

indiana · Tennis legend

That door certainly won't be near opening until possibly the second half of the year sometime.

Fed will continue to lead the race, possibly developing quite a healthy early lead, but I'm not sure of him seeing it right through the year.

Just not Stan, please !

My money would still be on Andy or Novak ending the year as #1. Indian Wells is only the 2nd of 13 Slams and Masters in the year, not much at all compared to their periods of relative dominance.

-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 16th of March 2017 09:29:02 PM

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Despite Andy pulling out of Miami, his lead will increase substantially as Djokovic has now pulled out as well.

indiana · Tennis legend

Yep, Andy now going to be over 4,000 points ahead ( 11,960 to 7,915 ). Tremendous work through Indian Wells and Miami

Novak now under much more threat from the Swiss Indian Wells finalists ( Stan short term, Fed very possibly longer term the rate he's going ) than he is to Andy for now.

Be good for Andy to get really going again soon though ...

TMH · Futures qualifying

At this rate Federer's going to be #1 not too long after Wimbledon. Murray's injury/performance issues (of which the latter may well be down to the former) are becoming a real concern. I hope he gets back to fitness/form soon but if he is to be out for a spell, it's a real shame that he won't be able to effectively defend his #1. Pretty typical of his career actually, to get knocked down with injury woes after major successes. His previous responses have been remarkable of course, but he's older now. Been a pretty frustrating start to the year.

wolf · Tennis legend

TMH wrote:
At this rate Federer's going to be #1 not too long after Wimbledon.

Probably doubtful with Roger skipping the clay season apart from the French.

Jaggy1876 · Grand Slam Champion

Yes Roger skipping the clay will help Nadal more than most as Andy and Novak won most of the clay points. The rankings after Wimbledon will give us a true reflection on where everyone is though.

TMH · Futures qualifying

wolf wrote:
TMH wrote:
At this rate Federer's going to be #1 not too long after Wimbledon.
Probably doubtful with Roger skipping the clay season apart from the French.

This wasn't announced when I made that post, but indeed. Still, he has quite a lead of Andy and Novak and if Andy is to miss the clay season Federer will be in a very strong position to catch him towards the the latter half of the year.

indiana · Tennis legend

Aside from general concern about Andy's form ( and some discussion as to the extent of that concern has taken place in the Monte Carlo thread ), purely addressing the #1 outlook, by ( Novak ) default Andy continues to have a huge points lead as WR 1. That guaranteed position, almost whatever he does or doesn't do, keeps extending and will now certainly last until Queens, and much more realistically now until at least Wimbledon ( he would need to stretch that out until the 7th August rankings to match #14 Nastase's 40 weeks in total as WR 1 ).

Just imagine how far ahead Andy might be now if he'd had any sort of first few months of the year comparative to expectations. Ah well ...

As to the year as a whole, how much the big race lead Fed and Rafa have taken over Andy and Novak will ultimately count, is a tale still to unfold and will anyone else enter the equation ? ...

As I said in the MC thread I can see a historically low total for the year end #1 though if Fed just keeps winning when he appears ...

Post Monte Carlo ranking points :

1. Murray 11690

2. Djokovic 8085

3. Wawrinka 5695

4. Federer 5125

indiana · Tennis legend

Post Monte Carlo Race Points :

1. Federer 4045
2. Nadal 3235
3. Wawrinka 1590
4. Goffin 1415

11. Murray 930
20. Djokovic 655

Born2WinTennis · Club Coach

Mats Wilander Sweden 20
Andy Murray 29 (currently)
Ilie Nastase Romania 40 (Monday 7th August) - Montreal Masters 1000
Gustavo Kuerten Brazil 43 (28th August) - Week after Cincinnati Masters
Jim Courier US 58 (11th December)
Stefan Edberg Sweden 72
Lleyton Hewitt Australia 80

He only has 600 points to defend from Cincinnati, did he not play Montreal/Toronto last year? If he can hold on to no1. through Wimbledon he should have a good chance of getting passed Kuerten.

indiana · Tennis legend

Andy gave last year's Canada Masters a miss prior to his Rio Olympic exploits. I believe he's reached the stage through length of service or something ( I forget the different criteria ) that he can miss a Masters or two without picking up a mandatory zero. Neither Canada nor Miami show on the ATP site as zero counters.

indiana · Tennis legend

In the post R-G 12/06/17 rankings we have :

1. A Murray 9890
2. R Nadal 7285
3. S Wawrinka 6175
4. N Djokovic 5805
5. R Federer 4945

So Novak's relative woes have caught up with him in the rankings as Rafa in particular continues to surge. When might Andy's?

Taking off remaining 2016 grass points to get the guaranteed minimum points players will have going into Wimbledon, Andy still leads just, so Rafa would need to make up the difference at Queens to be the 'in running' #1 at the start of Wimbledon. Stan could also overtake Andy during Wimbledon, as for now could Novak.

1. A Murray 9890 - ( 500 + 2000 ) = 7390
2. R Nadal 7285 - 0 = 7285
3. S Wawrinka 6175 - 45 = 6130
4. N Djokovic 5805 - 90 = 5715
5. R Federer 4945 - ( 180 + 720 ) = 4045

So decent chance of Andy still being WR 1 after Wimbledon since now playing a bit better he must be reasonably confident of doing at least as well as Rafa on Wimbledon's grass, terrific as Rafa's clay form was. Plus Stan and Novak are probably too far back and Roger certainly is too far back.

An Andy vs Rafa Wimbledon final for the title and #1 ranking spot could be fun. Fed in particular may have other ideas on that one.

indiana · Tennis legend

With Fed coming through to win the Halle title the clear top 4 Wimbledon seeds, after the grass formula addition is applied, will be the traditional 'big 4' for apparently the first Slam since Wimbledon 2014.

Very tight though from #2 to #4, but it had seemed generally agreed that Novak had already secured the #2 seed position ( essentially due to his 2015 Wimbledon triumph ) and I make it that Fed has now sneaked into 3rd ( not that #3 vs #4 gives any theoretical advantage ).

Based on ranking points as at 26.06.17 plus 100% of all grass points earned in the previous 12 months plus 75% of the best single grass score in the 12 months previous to that :

1. Murray : 9390 + 2000 + ( .75 × 720 ) = 11930
2. Djokovic : 5805 + 90 + ( .75 × 2000 ) = 7395
3. Federer : 5265 + ( 720 + 500 ) + ( .75 × 1200 ) = 7385
4. Nadal : 7285 + 0 + ( .75 × 45 ) = 7319

5. Wawrinka : 6175 + 45 + ( .75 × 360 ) = 6490