Battle for the top

wimdledont · Challenger level

Battle for the top

Miriambee · Futures level

Looking up the AO site, there appear to be 32 seeds, so if Fed and Del Potro are ranked 17 - 32 they won't meet other seeds for at least 2 rounds I think.

indiana · Tennis legend

Yes, 32 seeds so seeds kept apart until R3 / last 32. As said, no practical seeding advantage to being seeded 1 against 2. They just have their 'own' halves, but same draw possibilities.

In the last 32 seeds 1 to 8 are bracketed against seeds 25 to 32 and seeds 9 to 16 against seeds 17 to 24. Roger certainly won't be lower than seed 24 ( will still be close to the top 16 at worst ) so the top 8 seeds can't meet him in the last 32.

Similarly, in the last 16 seeds 1 to 4 are bracketed against seeds 13 to 16 and seeds 5 to 8 against seeds 9 to 12. Rafa won't be lower than seed 12 so the top 4 seeds can't meet him in the last I6.

In the last 8 seeds 1 to 4 are simply bracketed against seeds 5 to 8.

Del Potro stands out as the possible early danger. As things stand he would be unseeded therefore could be met anytime. If he gets good early points ( and that probably means win a week one ATP 250 ) then he could make the 32 seeds, but as a 25 to 32 seed he would be bracketed against a top 1 to 8 seed for R3.

-- Edited by indiana on Monday 21st of November 2016 01:11:14 PM

Sim · County player

vohor wrote:
Congratulations Andy :D :D :D

And, apropos Born2WinTennis' list, with 6 weeks of close season now he'll have passed Kafelnikov, Muster and Rios by the time Doha comes around :D

Novak won Doha last year so he can't gain any points in wk 1 2017. Assuming he doesn't compete in Sydney then Andy is safe at no. 1 until end of January so he will be up-to about 12 weeks - level with a certain B. Becker. biggrin

Spectator · All-time great

Don't have time to translate, but if you read Spanish (or have Google translate!) there's a rather fascinating article bringing together Alex Corretja, Dani Vallverdu, and Emilio Sanchez-Vicario to talk about AM and what it means for him to be number one: www.elespanol.com/deportes/tenis/20161119/171983139_0.html

wimdledont · Challenger level

Djkovic is clearly in a heck of a sulk. This morning, a user called 'nole004' was advertising kitchen furniture on this board. Really, he should just get over being demoted to WR2, and he should be better than to be spamming Andy's thread in a very petty act of revenge ;)

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

wimdledont wrote:
Djkovic is clearly in a heck of a sulk. This morning, a user called 'nole004' was advertising kitchen furniture on this board. Really, he should just get over being demoted to WR2, and he should be better than to be spamming Andy's thread in a very petty act of revenge ;)

Have Kei and Milos overtaken him in the rankings as well confuse

Spectator · All-time great

Random question. Long before he was battling for the top, when he was 14 to 19, 5 GB players beat AM. Tim Henman (Bangkok 2006) was the last; David Sherwood is the only one who did it twice; Matt Smith and Mark Hilton (when he was 14 in the first instance and 16 in the second) are known names. The fifth is someone called Thomas Greenland (AM was 16). Has anyone ever come across him?

Born2WinTennis · Club Coach

Djokovic has split with Becker, citing all their original goals have been achieved. Becker has said Djokovic's family have had to take a back seat. I think it can only mean his family are not going to take a back seat anymore with his 2017 schedule.

indiana · Tennis legend

Looking at year end points in the 8 years since the general points system we have in force now began, Andy's will be the 6th highest year-end points in that time and anyone with at least these points has always ended as year-end #1. There have been 11 instances of players ending with 10000 plus points, the 8 year end #1s and 3 #2s.

1. Djokovic 16585 - 2015 #1
2. Djokovic 13630 - 2011 #1
3. Nadal 13030 - 2013 #1
4. Djokovic 12920 - 2012 #1
5. Nadal 12450 - 2010 #1
6. Murray 12410 - 2016 #1
7. Djokovic 12260 - 2013 #2
8. Djokovic 11780 - 2016 #2
9. Djokovic 11360 - 2014 #1
10. Federer 10550 - 2009 #1
11. Federer 10265 - 2012 #2

TMH · Futures qualifying

Djokovic's 2015 was incredible. Must be up there as one of the greatest years for any one player in the history of the sport?

indiana · Tennis legend

I think everyone recognises that the first half of the year was Novak's and the second half Andy but the differences are so stark ...

Andy :
Up to & including French Open: 4450 points (Andy - 3500)
After French Open: 7960 points (Andy + 4130)
Total: 12410 (Andy +630)

Novak :
Up to & including French Open: 7950 points
After French Open: 3830
Total: 11780

Two great halves by each in turn ( although in total a bit short of Novak's phenomenal 2015 )

If Novak outdoes Andy by more than 4130 points in 2017 by the French Open to be # 1 then, I'll be very unpleasantly surprised.

-- Edited by indiana on Saturday 24th of December 2016 12:10:56 AM

indiana · Tennis legend

Novak successfully defends his Doha title points whilst Andy adds 150 to his total.

1. Murray 12560
2. Djokovic 11780

At the Aussie Open clearly again Novak can't increase his total. Andy needs to reach the SF to be sure of staying WR 1 if Novak stays in and goes on to retain the title ( if Andy had won today a QF would have been enough ). In any event Novak must retain the title to have any chance of returning to WR 1 immediately post the Aussie Open even if Andy doesn't win a match.

But I am pretty sure that Andy will not only win some matches but is looking for rather better than just QF or SF.

indiana · Tennis legend

And so it came to pass Andy's 780 points lead going into the Aussie Open will now be at least 1625 points coming out of it ( live 11450 to 9825 ). I'd rather you added a few to that mate, like a further 1910 !

His 12 weeks at #1 by Aussie Open end will roll past Becker's 12 weeks, Roddick's 13 and indeed Wilander's 20 since just no real scope to eat into already such a gap. Nastase's 40 weeks ( which if Andy was to reach in consecutive weeks would take us past Wimbledon ) is the first remotely potential hurdle ahead in the list. But really Andy has the opportunity to just build and build that gap prior to Wimbledon, particularly through Indian Wells and Miami, even if very good Novak form.

But again, winning Slams is VERY nice too, let's be greedy !

vohor · Grand Slam Champion

With Nole winning virtually everything in sight in the first half of 2016 the potential for Andy building a huge lead over the coming months is....well, huge :D
Lifting the AO title would indeed be a nice start! Fingers crossed :)