Ben Rothenberg
@BenRothenberg
Rankings watch:

Djokovic needs at least semifinals here in Rome to retain #1 ranking and be top seed at French Open.

If he doesn't, it will be Medvedev, who returns next week in Geneva.

Medvedev would be first non-Big 4 #1 seed at a Slam since 2004 Australian Open (Roddick).

indiana wrote:

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With Djokovic exiting at the QF stage and Zverev painfully exiting in the SF, Medvedev will be clear WR 1 after the French Open 2021 points come off ( assumed to be on 13/06 for the ATP rankings ).

Medvedev will be just as clear WR 1 if and when the Wimbledon 2021 points come off unreplaced. But at least we will be spared the irony of him going to WR 1 because of the Wimbledon points situation as he will already be WR 1 ( although Zverev, if fit, and Nadal, if he wins the French Open, could possibly have overtaken Medvedev at Wimbledon with very good runs if points were on offer ).

Projected points at 13/06 :

1. Medvedev 7800
2. Zverev 7075
3. Djokovic 6770

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 Looking at the Race last night against the rankings , they do seem all over the place against each other in a way Ive not seen before. Medvedev is 1st in ranking but 8 in Race. Zverev is 2 in rankings but 5 in race. Djoko is outside the top 8 in the race; and Rafa is 4th in the rankings but top in the race. 

given half the season is now played in terms of slams and masters events, this must reflect that the guys who had great ends to last season really havent come out of the blocks yet this season, and there could be a lot of movement in these rankings as we get through the US Open and towards the end of the season. 

or is something else going on?! 

christ wrote:

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JonH comes home wrote:

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 ... Djoko is outside the top 8 in the race;

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 His non-participation in Australia probably explains Mr Djokovic's position.

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 indeed - agreed. And in general he has had a slow start to the year with IW and Miami being an issue for him.

indiana wrote:

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JonH comes home wrote:

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christ wrote:

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JonH comes home wrote:

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 ... Djoko is outside the top 8 in the race;

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 His non-participation in Australia probably explains Mr Djokovic's position.

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 indeed - agreed. And in general he has had a slow start to the year with IW and Miami being an issue for him.

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 He's already projected to fall to WR 7 in the rankings once 2021 Wimbledon points come off in addition to 2021 French Open points.

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 I hadnt checked the 5 week list but yes, it looks like:

 

1. Medvedev 7280

2. Zverev 6850

3. Nadal 6165

4. Ruud 5050

5. Tsitsipas 4945

6. Alcaraz 4845

7. Djokovic 4770

8. Rublev 3700

9. FAA 3333

10. Sinner 3185

11. Cam 3133

I see  Jack D is live 98, shame he isnt playing this week to try and defend that as there are a lot of players behind him who could pass him again, nonetheless a virtual top 100 is a good start!

So, of the 5 players that could have been WR 1 post the US Open, Tsitsipas fell by the wayside very early and now the existing WR 1 Medvedev has also dropped out of contention.

Nadal is live #1 but now of course out.

So the 3 contenders for WR 1 are currently :

Nadal : 5630 - 0 + 180 = 5810 - OUT

Alcaraz : 5100 - 360 + 360 = 5100
Ruud : 4695 - 45 + 360 = 5010

Both Alcaraz and Ruud would move ahead of Nadal if they reach the final. If they both do, clearly they will be playing for not only the title but the WR 1 spot.

Alcaraz has clearly been thought about for a while as the next big thing, and would be the youngest WR 1 in ATP rankings history, but although a former junior WR 1 who would have thought Casper Ruud might be senior WR 1 at this stage?

Hopefully, if one is to become the post US Open WR 1, they do so as champion, especially if that is Ruud, to really give him recognition.

And so it transpired ...

WR at 12/09/22

1. Alcaraz : 5100 - 360 + 2000 = 6740
2. Ruud : 4695 - 45 + 1200 = 5850
3. Nadal : 5630 - 0 + 180 = 5810

And at a new CH ...

8. Norrie : 3415 - 45 + 180 = 3550

tennisabstract.com/reports/atp_elo_ratings.html

I noticed Alcaraz has got to the top of the ELO ratings at last, Djoko down to 4. The interesting one was in the Brits , that Evo seems to consistently be below his actual atp ranking in these lists, 37 versus 25 at the moment. Does that imply Evo wins many matches versus lower rated players and maybe plays more comfortable events ? Or wins early rounds quite often but never really makes it through as he hits the bigger boys end of the event ? Presumably the latter?