Battle for the top

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Battle for the top

indiana · Tennis legend

With Djokovic exiting at the QF stage and Zverev painfully exiting in the SF, Medvedev will be clear WR 1 after the French Open 2021 points come off ( assumed to be on 13/06 for the ATP rankings ).

Medvedev will be just as clear WR 1 if and when the Wimbledon 2021 points come off unreplaced. But at least we will be spared the irony of him going to WR 1 because of the Wimbledon points situation as he will already be WR 1 ( although Zverev, if fit, and Nadal, if he wins the French Open, could possibly have overtaken Medvedev at Wimbledon with very good runs if points were on offer ).

Projected points at 13/06 :

1. Medvedev 7800
2. Zverev 7075
3. Djokovic 6770

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:
With Djokovic exiting at the QF stage and Zverev painfully exiting in the SF, Medvedev will be clear WR 1 after the French Open 2021 points come off ( assumed to be on 13/06 for the ATP rankings ).

Medvedev will be just as clear WR 1 if and when the Wimbledon 2021 points come off unreplaced. But at least we will be spared the irony of him going to WR 1 because of the Wimbledon points situation as he will already be WR 1 ( although Zverev, if fit, and Nadal, if he wins the French Open, could possibly have overtaken Medvedev at Wimbledon with very good runs if points were on offer ).

Projected points at 13/06 :

1. Medvedev 7800
2. Zverev 7075
3. Djokovic 6770

Looking at the Race last night against the rankings , they do seem all over the place against each other in a way Ive not seen before. Medvedev is 1st in ranking but 8 in Race. Zverev is 2 in rankings but 5 in race. Djoko is outside the top 8 in the race; and Rafa is 4th in the rankings but top in the race.

given half the season is now played in terms of slams and masters events, this must reflect that the guys who had great ends to last season really havent come out of the blocks yet this season, and there could be a lot of movement in these rankings as we get through the US Open and towards the end of the season.

or is something else going on?!

christ · Futures qualifying

JonH comes home wrote:
... Djoko is outside the top 8 in the race;

His non-participation in Australia probably explains Mr Djokovic's position.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

christ wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
... Djoko is outside the top 8 in the race;
His non-participation in Australia probably explains Mr Djokovic's position.

indeed - agreed. And in general he has had a slow start to the year with IW and Miami being an issue for him.

indiana · Tennis legend

JonH comes home wrote:
christ wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
... Djoko is outside the top 8 in the race;
His non-participation in Australia probably explains Mr Djokovic's position.
indeed - agreed. And in general he has had a slow start to the year with IW and Miami being an issue for him.

He's already projected to fall to WR 7 in the rankings once 2021 Wimbledon points come off in addition to 2021 French Open points.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
christ wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
... Djoko is outside the top 8 in the race;
His non-participation in Australia probably explains Mr Djokovic's position.
indeed - agreed. And in general he has had a slow start to the year with IW and Miami being an issue for him.
He's already projected to fall to WR 7 in the rankings once 2021 Wimbledon points come off in addition to 2021 French Open points.

I hadnt checked the 5 week list but yes, it looks like:

1. Medvedev 7280

2. Zverev 6850

3. Nadal 6165

4. Ruud 5050

5. Tsitsipas 4945

6. Alcaraz 4845

7. Djokovic 4770

8. Rublev 3700

9. FAA 3333

10. Sinner 3185

11. Cam 3133

I see Jack D is live 98, shame he isnt playing this week to try and defend that as there are a lot of players behind him who could pass him again, nonetheless a virtual top 100 is a good start!

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Apparently Zverev will miss being number one by 125 points on Monday and then immediately drops 1000 to fall way behind. Nadal is confirmed as in Cinci and if he wins and Medvedev loses early in Cinci, Nadal will be number one.

indiana · Tennis legend

So, of the 5 players that could have been WR 1 post the US Open, Tsitsipas fell by the wayside very early and now the existing WR 1 Medvedev has also dropped out of contention.

Nadal is live #1 but now of course out.

So the 3 contenders for WR 1 are currently :

Nadal : 5630 - 0 + 180 = 5810 - OUT

Alcaraz : 5100 - 360 + 360 = 5100
Ruud : 4695 - 45 + 360 = 5010

Both Alcaraz and Ruud would move ahead of Nadal if they reach the final. If they both do, clearly they will be playing for not only the title but the WR 1 spot.

Alcaraz has clearly been thought about for a while as the next big thing, and would be the youngest WR 1 in ATP rankings history, but although a former junior WR 1 who would have thought Casper Ruud might be senior WR 1 at this stage?

Hopefully, if one is to become the post US Open WR 1, they do so as champion, especially if that is Ruud, to really give him recognition.

christ · Futures qualifying

So is Ruud the last knockings of the 90's cohort before they give way to the 2000's lot?

indiana · Tennis legend

And so it transpired ...

WR at 12/09/22

1. Alcaraz : 5100 - 360 + 2000 = 6740
2. Ruud : 4695 - 45 + 1200 = 5850
3. Nadal : 5630 - 0 + 180 = 5810

And at a new CH ...

8. Norrie : 3415 - 45 + 180 = 3550

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

The changing of the guard ? I think the guard has well and truly changed.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

tennisabstract.com/reports/atp_elo_ratings.html

I noticed Alcaraz has got to the top of the ELO ratings at last, Djoko down to 4. The interesting one was in the Brits , that Evo seems to consistently be below his actual atp ranking in these lists, 37 versus 25 at the moment. Does that imply Evo wins many matches versus lower rated players and maybe plays more comfortable events ? Or wins early rounds quite often but never really makes it through as he hits the bigger boys end of the event ? Presumably the latter?

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Although Cam has work to do to in making Turin, the Italians also do - Sinner and Berrettini outside the top 8 by a little way and the top doubles pair also - not sure that no Italians qualifying was in the ATP business case for taking this event to Italy?!

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

For what it is worth, the last match between the number one and two players was in Paris Masters in late 2021 , 18 months ago. Djokovic v Medvedev

The last time the two top women played was Nov 2019, 3 1/2 years ago, barty played pliskova in tour finals.

Im not sure it is good for the respective tours for the top players to not play. Prior to 2021, there had been 32 matches in the previous 9 years for the men. For women , there have been only 32 matches between top 2 since year 2000.

Stats courtesy of Jeff Sackmann on tennis abstract twitter