LOL I just answered the same question on the week 46 thread. We must be getting our AO Q cuts from different sources (apart from the 434 which we agree on), but I think both sets of figures suggest that about 280 should be safe.
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
I thought it might be an idea to check out (WC) Axel Michon's recent results.
He's 17 years old and his only previous singles match against a Brit at this level was a 3 & 1 loss to Chris Eaton in early 2007, but he had only just turned 16 at that point. He also lost to Eaton & Ward in R1 of the doubles last week, so Wardy will have seen him in action before. There's nothing that spectacular in his results this year, except that he did beat Burquier, who beat Dan Evans in Ilkley and won the Tipton Future a few months ago.
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
James beat Michon 4 & 4 & will play Metenier in the semi-finals.
Could be a tougher match for him against the 8th seed.
Indeed, but I'm kinda hoping that the fact that Metenier had more of a struggle to overcome the delightfully-named Dorian Descloix in their QF (6-7(8) 7-6(0) 6-0) is an indication that James will eventually gain the upper hand in tomorrow's SF!
* Some interesting goings-on in the bottom half of the draw (just in case James makes it ): Guillermo Alcaide, the fifth seed, saw off Matthieu Rodrigues (3) 5 & 0, while yet another Frog, Romain Hardy ( ), dumped out the Belgian second seed, Jeroen Masson, 4 & 4!
James beat Michon 4 & 4 & will play Metenier in the semi-finals.
Could be a tougher match for him against the 8th seed.
Metenier stuffed Mat Illingworth 1 & 0 on clay in Bournemouth in April before beating Sean Thornley 4 & 1 in the QFs but got thrashed 2 & 1 himself by Josh Goodall in Bath.
* Some interesting goings-on in the bottom half of the draw (just in case James makes it ): Guillermo Alcaide, the fifth seed, saw off Matthieu Rodrigues (3) 5 & 0, while yet another Frog, Romain Hardy ( )
All these 'grenouilles' in the draw, you'd think it was a GB Future circa 2006/7! (I suppose they do have a good excuse this time, it being in France)
Romain must surely be related to the singer, Françoise - there can't be two French familes with the surname "Hardy" surely!
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
If 10k+H is the same as 15K for points that is 6 in the bag. He can double that if he beats Metenier. If it's just 10K poijts it's still 4 in the bag and the chance to double vs Metenier.
James W won his SF 6-4 6-0. He'll play the Spaniard, Alcaide in the final as he dismissed Monsieur Hardy 6-2 6-1. So 7th plays 5th and not a Frog in sight.
Great result though Alcaide has been having a good week too - unlike James, he hasn't even dropped a set.
His exploits of this week and last week mean that Wardy will be GB no. 6 on Monday week and ranked in the 330s, about 40 places above his current career high.
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
Alcaide leads 1-0 in the H2H. It was 18 months ago and on outdoor hard. It was also a semi-final and at the time James had a shocking conversion rate of semis to finals.
I think Guillermo is slight favourite but James has every reason to feel confident that he has stepped up in form and level since their last contest