Have just taken the trouble to read up on the purpose of this thread, so for the benefit of "Murray-phobics", an import from the Wimby draw thread in the AM forum:

gazzpash wrote:

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Hope Eaton wins. I'm hoping the fact his apponent has Pash in his surname will mean he's crap! lol

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FD has already described Pashanski as "a clown on grass" & Neil Harman, in today's Times, unlike the agency report it used yesterday, accepts that he is Chris' R1 opponent & has this to say in his review of the draw:

Chris Eaton's reward for success in the qualifying competition is a match against Boris Pashanski, a clay-court loving Serb who has played only two grass-court matches and lost both. As gift horses go, this one ought not to be ignored, even for a Briton ranked No 659 in the world.

* 

P.S.  There's a two-minute video interview with Chris on this page of the Beeb site.   Wonder if he's fully prepared for the rigours of the national Wimbledon media spotlight!   That said, though, he gives every impression of treating every day since his qualification for the MD as a bonus & just enjoying himself!

Yorkie wrote:

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What a draw for Eaton!

Eaton and Murray will be the only Brits in round two though

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Tend to agree.

Eaton - 75% chance of victory (he's the grasscourt player and so long as he brings his game and doesn't choke then he's the likely winner)
Boggo - 25% (there's a reason he freezes when his opponent is fairly ordinary at Wimbledon and it'll be a big breakthrough if he can get past those mental barriers)
Baker - 10% (not fit enough, no trackrecord of success on grass, players that get through qualifying can play on the surface, opponent practically needs to be injured for Jamie to get through)


-- Edited by kundalini at 19:47, 2008-06-21

kundalini wrote:

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Eaton - 75% chance of victory (he's the grasscourt player and so long as he brings his game and doesn't choke then he's the likely winner)
Boggo - 25% (there's a reason he freezes when his opponent is fairly ordinary at Wimbledon and it'll be a big breakthrough if he can get past those mental barriers)
Baker - 10% (not fit enough, no trackrecord of success on grass, players that get through qualifying can play on the surface, opponent practically needs to be injured for Jamie to get through)

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I thought it might be interesting to add the pick %s from the pick 'em to this - our sample so far is 164 entrants, but I have noticed in the past that in AMS events, the final %s have ended up very close to the ATP bracket challenge %s, which are based on 10000+ entrants. However, the large GB element among pick 'em entrants probably makes the %s for the Brits on the higher side than a more even global mix of entrants would produce:

Baker 75% (and in R2, Youzhny 95%, Baker 4%, Galvani 1%, with 1% expecting Jamie to beat Count Duckula in R3 as well)
Boggo 48% (and in R2, the %s are Gonzo 73%, Ginepri 23%, Bolelli 2%, Boggo 2%)
Eaton 47% (and in R2, Tursunov 53%, Mahut 42%, Eaton 4%, Pashanski 1%)

Not the order I would have expected - has half the world forgotten that Jamie was fighting for his life not that long ago?! (which doesn't mean I won't pick him to win R1 - I haven't decided on any of them yet - but I don't think he's the most likely of the three to win)

-- Edited by steven at 20:34, 2008-06-21

Well overall the bookies usually get it right so you carnt really argue with them.

Personally as a betting man imo pashanski is like buying money, id love to see eaton win but surely a 500 ranking difference even on grass will be to much for chris to overcome, however looking at qualies results it would suggest chris is favourite a lot will depend on how nervous eaton gets, its a tough match to call as with boggo and jamie, all 3 matches could go either way. just hope to see one of them play on wednesday on court 1 !

If anyone is going on wednesday i will proberbly from the early afternoon be prepared to give up my 2 court 1 tickets providing they are no brits on court as i prefer watching the matches on the outside courts.

Greenleaf wrote:

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Pashanski can't be rubbish since he took a set off Agassi (albeit a below par one) on grass. But of course, this is his first grass match for almost two years now, so who knows...

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Berlocq beat Ferrero (a Wimbledon QF) on a grass court, but that doesn't mean he can play on the stuff.

Pashanski hasn't played on it for 2 years, showed his interest in the event by not even entering qualifying, and is a mediocre clay court pusher who's struggled to win many ATP matches on the clay.

And the Agassi match? That first set.... anyone in the top 500 would have got a set off Agassi he played it so poorly.

Eaton should win this match, unless he gets nervous or Pashanski has secretly become a God on the grass.

Greenleaf wrote:

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Didn't see Agassi play that, so can't comment!

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Yeah, the fact Pashanski won a set is a total red herring as I think every point he won was an Agassi error, and as it was his final Wimbledon I think the occasion got to him for a while.

From them on Pashanski got schooled and looked like he'd never been on a grass court before.

To be honest, only Berlocq, Vassallo and Hernandez are better draws, so Chris can hardly complain about this (how I wish Boggo or Baker had got this draw though, as they need the win here so much more.... that said, I'd still fancy them both to win)

Bookies go about 66% for an Eaton win btw