One of the most worrying things so far this year is that while Andy has been able to string wins together in the optional events (which might have lulled him into a false sense of security?), he's not really got anywhere in the events that matter most.
The % of his total ranking points a player gains in the mandatory events is one way of measuring which players are best at saving their best performances for the biggest events. It's a far from perfect measure, but it's the best I can find.
If you order the ATP top 30 this way, you get:
94% Federer, Roger (SUI) 91% Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 87% Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 83% Hewitt, Lleyton (AUS) 81% Nalbandian, David (ARG) 81% Davydenko, Nikolay (RUS) 78% Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried (FRA) 73% Moya, Carlos (ESP) 72% Gasquet, Richard (FRA) 71% Canas, Guillermo (ARG) 71% Baghdatis, Marcos (CYP) 69% Youzhny, Mikhail (RUS) 68% Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 68% Ferrer, David (ESP) 67% Ferrero, Juan Carlos (ESP) 66% Blake, James (USA) 64% Andreev, Igor (RUS) 59% Gonzalez, Fernando (CHI) 58% Nieminen, Jarkko (FIN) 57% Roddick, Andy (USA) 56% Robredo, Tommy (ESP) 51% Mathieu, Paul-Henri (FRA) 51% Verdasco, Fernando (ESP) 48% Monaco, Juan (ARG) 47% Stepanek, Radek (CZE) 45% Ljubicic, Ivan (CRO) 42% Almagro, Nicolas (ESP) 41% Wawrinka, Stanislas (SUI) 35% Murray, Andy (GBR) 27% Karlovic, Ivo (CRO)
Indeed, if you order the top 30 by optional points, Andy is 3rd behind Duckboy and Big Ivo, but if you order them by slam/AMS points, Andy is 28th with only Ljubo and Ivo behind him. In fact, he won't even be in the top 30 for mandatory points, because a handful of players lower down may well have scored more too.
I realise Andy has missed two slams and a couple of AMS events in the last year, but even if you double his slam points, he'd only be 24th in mandatory event points, while he'd be 12th overall.
I'm not trying to devalue wins in optional events (andy did brilliantly in Doha & Marseille ), but he can't get much more from those this year and it's clear from a quick look at the list above that to be a permanent fixture in the top 10, you have to be scoring consistently highly in the mandatory tournaments where all the other top players are present.
Interesting thanks Steven - I would hope things will look a lot brighter after French/Wimbledon (which he missed last year), and Montreal/Cincinnati (which he only won 1 match at last year)
Also US Open he can hopefully beat last years 3rd round. Needs to find some form first though of course.
The men at the top, especially Federer, Hewitt and Nalby's stats are slightly skewed by the fact they don't play many, if any, optionals, but still shows that Andy needs to do more in the bigger events
I think his position will rise when he starts winning matches again, as I'd think he'd win a round at the very least in Hamburg, RG, Wimbledon, Toronto, Cincinatti and US OPen and will probably go deep in some of them, but he does struggle against the top players it seems by his horrible records against Nadal, Djoko, Gasquet etc
The men at the top, especially Federer, Hewitt and Nalby's stats are slightly skewed by the fact they don't play many, if any, optionals, but still shows that Andy needs to do more in the bigger events
Of course, no measure like this is ever goign to be perfect, it's justa startng point for discussion. However, it's also fair to say that the reason why some of those at the top don't play many optionals is because they do well enough in the mandatory events not to need to.
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I love the way we see snippets of info from here appearing in the Times ... see the latest article at http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/tennis/article3897166.ece which includes the line "Yet the career of Britain's lone quality singles player is in a state of drift, having struggled to impose himself in the biggest tournaments - of the top 30 in the world rankings, only Ivo Karlovic, of Croatia, has a worse record."
Could be complete coincidence of course (though given the randomness of the way I stopped at 30 - an incoming phone call! - I'd guess not, and I think it's great the way they pick up stuff like this and take it to a wider audience in a way that we can't), but either way it's an interesting, fairly in-depth article touching on many of the things we've been talking about recently, and even taking a side-swipe at AM.com:
"Murray's personal website is replete with those who follow every move with a fanatical devotion and for whom he can barely do wrong" - if he's talking about the few members there who jump on every criticism of Andy, however constructive, as if it's a capital crime, then he's probably right, though even some of those for whom Andy can usually do no wrong were losing their patience after the Wawrinka match.
Well worth a read, anyway.
-- Edited by steven at 11:33, 2008-05-09
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
A very interesting article, it seems to me to hit the nail on the head on all the aspects that are currently frustrating me (if not anyone else) with Murray's game.
Thanks for the link Steven.
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To look at a thing is quite different from seeing a thing and one does not see anything until one sees its beauty
I just checked, and see that Andy's mandatory points are now over half his total points
i.e. 910 / 1805 = 50.42 %
So now that he has had reasonable Paris and good Wimbledon results in place of 0, he will have climbed up this table a bit.
With hopefully better results than last year i( when he was really just coming back from his injury ) in Cincinnati, Canada and the US Open, then that % should be going up further.
I thought that I would add a relevant part of another post I wrote ( in the thread about Andy's punishment for missing Indianapolis ) to this thread, because it shows the improvement, obviosly particularly marked recently, in Andy's mandatory performances.
I was having a look at stevegtennis.com and looking at the race points, Andy is 4th for race points won this year in mandatory events ( so effectively ranking points won so far this year ), OK miles behind the top 3, but 4th nevertheless !! And that is 4th with a steady positive build up in success through the year. Incidentally for optionals, he is 6th among the top 10, and 8th overall, and that is currently unaffected by the Indy zero. He needs to work on those optionals
It is clear that in recent months, he has really turned round the previous issue, and it was an issue, of having a comparatively poor mandatory points count as against the other other top players. He now needs to work towards getting closer to the top 3, and that is undoubtably a really major task.
Points Points Points Rank This Last Gained GS MS Other Rank Player Nat Diff Week Week This Wk PTS PTS PTS Trn ---- ------ --- ---- ---- ---- ---- --- --- --- --- 1 Nadal, Rafael ESP 0 1100 1055 45 490 461 149 15 2 Djokovic, Novak SRB 1 744 674 70 297 386 61 13 3 Federer, Roger SUI -1 701 686 15 370 251 80 13 4 Davydenko, Nikolay RUS 0 387 386 1 46 198 143 16 5 Murray, Andy GBR 1 380 280 100 66 198 116 17 6 Ferrer, David ESP -1 322 321 1 115 65 142 17 7 Blake, James USA 0 271 256 15 64 116 91 17 8 Roddick, Andy USA 0 255 255 0 22 106 127 14 9 Wawrinka, Stanislas SUI 0 251 251 0 52 119 80 16 10 Almagro, Nicolas ESP 0 238 241 -3 58 48 132 17
Afer the Canada and Cincinnati points come off from last year, and are replaced by optionals, 66% of Andy's coverall ranking points total will come from mandatories ( it would be 64% if he could count a 5th optional ). This is the fair comparison ( his current 77% is unrealistically high since it counts 15 mandatories ).
64% would still only put Andy 17th in Steven's original scale ( I haven't recalculated all the others ! ), I actually thought he might be higher, but I guess about half way up the scale shows he at least has a much better balance. It also clearly indicates that hiis mandatories proportion are much more in touch with the other top players. And as the above points total for this calendar year only indicates, it is looking as if it will rise higher.
Thanks for the updated analysis. Around the middle in terms of dependence on optionals with that dependence on the way down seems pretty good to me at this stage.
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
Indiana do you have a reference for the steveg data updated?I tried chopping the address at rankings/ and got a list of 2009 documents but nothing like this.I know the race has been discontinued but thought it was worth asking.
The reason I was looking was someone on MTF said in relation to Andy's Wimbledon chances that Murray is a 99% lesser player in GS events.Obviously exaggerated but by how much?That made me remember this helpful thread.
To find out the current status and for 15 minutes mental exercise I worked out ranks of the top 20 players bar Gasquet in-
Some of these are double counting but still measure different things.
Andy's rankings I made 3,2,3,5*,2 respectively which shows how consistent he now is across all levels.In Stephen's original measure Andy is now 3rd of those 20 I checked.
* adding 250 would take him up to 3rd assuming nobody else would pass him with 0 pointers replaced.
Indiana do you have a reference for the steveg data updated?I tried chopping the address at rankings/ and got a list of 2009 documents but nothing like this.I know the race has been discontinued but thought it was worth asking.
The reason I was looking was someone on MTF said in relation to Andy's Wimbledon chances that Murray is a 99% lesser player in GS events.Obviously exaggerated but by how much?That made me remember this helpful thread.
To find out the current status and for 15 minutes mental exercise I worked out ranks of the top 20 players bar Gasquet in-
Some of these are double counting but still measure different things.
Andy's rankings I made 3,2,3,5*,2 respectively which shows how consistent he now is across all levels.In Stephen's original measure Andy is now 3rd of those 20 I checked.
* adding 250 would take him up to 3rd assuming nobody else would pass him with 0 pointers replaced.
No sorry, stevegtennis showed race rankings when they existed and split them as above, I see nothing similar now. Now that there is no race, I can't see steveg has anything similar in place.
As a sidenote I never have seen anything officially saying there are no race points as such this year, it just seems accepted that the race to London is a "race" to keep your ranking as high as possible so that it's in the top 8 after the last qualifying tournament of the season.
Interesting figures on Andy's ranking over various tournaments, angry, and those combined with the fact that Andy has a final, 2 quarters and a last 16 place over the last 4 Grand Slams , leading to this 3rd in Grand Slam points ( that is 3rd ! in line with his overall ranking , then I think we can agree that this someone on MTF is talking through a hole in their head
I know that there are other forums that discuss Andy much more than here, particularly his own site, and knowing my particular concentration on Andy some folk suggested I try them ( as well as stick around here )
But I fear as compared to the intelligent chat we have here, some of the drivel on other sites might have too much effect on my blood pressure !!