Week 10 - Futures F5 (10k) - Lagos, Portugal

johnnylad · Tennis legend

RE: Week 10 - Futures F5 (10k) - Lagos, Portugal

steven · Tennis legend

The top 500 cut has pushed higher again this week, such that James would be behind Edward Seator, who in turn would be outside the top 499 and it won't improve this week because no tournaments are dropping off for anyone, so James needs to score points here (he may even need more than one) to be in the top 500 by the end of Indian Wells.

Yorkie · Lower Club Player

Yep

no Brits qualified

steven · Tennis legend

QR3: Matthew Illingworth WR 1063 lost to (q9) Aleksandr Yarmola (UKR) WR 667 by 3-6 6-3 6-4 cry

(not a bad effort)
QR3: Tim Hewitt WR 1010 lost to (q5) Maxime Authom (BEL) WR 593 by 2 & 4 cry

L32: Miles Kasiri WR 513 v (4) Carsten Ball (AUS) WR 358 - Tuesday
L32: James Ward WR 508 v Julien Maes (FRA) WR 524 - Tuesday
L32: (3) Joshua Goodall WR 339 v (Q) Agustin Boje-Ordonez (ESP) WR 867 - Wednesday

Machado, who qualified and then won the title last week, had apparently won his previous Future in Bari as well, so he's probably the favourite for this week too. Even if Miles can get past the no. 4 seed, he's likely to meet the Portuguese rising star in R2.

As for Kasiri's chances of getting past the no. 4 seed in the first place, Ball is just below his career high but has lost his last 4 matches (AO Q, 2 Croatia Futures R1, Wolfsburg QR1), though his last win in AO QR1 as a QWC against Pless (Boggo's conqueror last week) was pretty impressive! He also won two Futures in the US during the summer then reached (but lost) three Futures Finals in a row in Oct/Nov.

Ball's results v Brits have been very mixed - beat big Arv in late 2005, two easy wins against Seator (both including a bagel) then losses to Del & Kennaugh in 2006, then (and here's a chink of light!) two losses to Myles Blake last year.

James is also in Q2, but has a slightly kinder draw, i.e. similarly ranked player -> no. 8 seed -> death by Machado, though I doubt he'll get that far. Maes had a CH of 428 in 2006, but is not enjoying the conditions in Portugal, having failed to qualify for F1 and gone out in R1 in F2 & F3. After a month's break, he has at least qualified this time though.

Last year, Maes got bagelled in the 2nd set by Jagdev Sagoo but still won the match, beat Flan & Miotto (etc) convincingly and reached the Final of Ireland F2, beatigng Skupski (0 & 2), Brewer & Kasiri on the way, before getting beaten 5 & 3 by Skupski in Dublin Challenger qualifying the same weekend.

Josh has a good R1 draw this time, having suffered death by Machado in R1 in Faro, but could meet last week's losing finalist Jeanclaude in R2, though otherwise his quarter looks fairly mild. Boje-Ordonez shocked Slabba 3 & 3 just over a year ago but lost 2 & 0 to Dan Cox a month later and has only ever reached two Futures QFs, losing them both.

Josh would need to be playing even worse than some people think he is to lose this one - and remember that the Q he lost to last week was Machado, who went on to win the title, so he's not playing as badly as it seemed.

In doubles:

(4) Eaton & Ball (AUS) v Boje-Ordonez & Clar-Rossello (ESP) - Wednesday
(2) Bammy & Josh v Ferrer-Victoria & Tavares (ESP) - Tuesday

-- Edited by steven at 04:33, 2008-03-04

Yorkie · Lower Club Player

Tough draw for our boys

I'd expect Ward to win........ and maybe Goodall

Kasiri to lose in straight sets though i reckon

RobC · All-time great

Miles KASIRI (GBR) defeated Carsten BALL (AUS) (4) 7-6(4) 7-6(10)

freerider · Futures level

wars lost in three... after bagelling maes in the second the final set tie breaker went 10-8 too maes :(

wolf · Tennis legend

A nice return to form for Miles. How close to the top 500 now?

R1
PEDERSEN (DEN) / WEINTRAUB (ISR) (3) defeated HEWITT (GBR) / ILLINGWORTH (GBR) 6-3 6-0
BAMFORD (GBR) / GOODALL (GBR) (2) defeated FERRER-VICTORIA (ESP) / TAVARES (POR) 6-4 4-6 [12-10]

Yorkie · Lower Club Player

Well done to Miles smile

fantastic result!

Gutted for Wardy cry

He always seems to be involved in close matches doesn't he!

Hopefully Goodall can have a good run this week!!!

DJ · County player

Miles stays more or less stationary, Wolf, because he's dropping a point this week. At the moment, it looks as though 52 points from a small number of events is possible for a squeak-in, and 53 would be ok, though our expert stats guys say 54 because points won't drop off next week, but will add on - I'm not convinced about that. Miles is on 51 -1 + 1 =51. Another win just adds one more point, taking him to 52, but Miles, like Edward and James (both on 53) has played loads of tournaments (16/17 each), so needs to get to the semis, where the 4 points would move him to 55 and a definite top 500. Sorry to make it sound so complicated but, just now, it is!

-- Edited by DJ at 19:20, 2008-03-04

wolf · Tennis legend

Complicated? How small minded do you think I am? Although I didn't get the comment about points being added on but not dropping off, how does that work?

DJ · County player

Abject apologies, Wolf, I wasn't having a dig at you at all! Sorry if it came over that way, certainly wasn't intended.

I'll see if I can find the relevant quote and come back in a few minutes.

DJ · County player

DJ wrote:

I'll see if I can find the relevant quote and come back in a few minutes.

It's near the top of this page - a post from Steven.

I think what Steven's saying is that, when you're right on the cusp of a particular target, the number of folk moving up because of points gained is roughly balanced by folk falling because of last year's points dropping off. That won't be happening this week, though, because points won't fall off because we were mid-Indian Wells last year. Therefore, there'll only be up-movers, meaning the target's harder to reach, and Edward and James can't move up because they can't gain any points this week.

Boy oh boy, do I wish I hadn't started trying to explain! Steven - help!!

I'm off to watch the Bhoys beat Barca!

-- Edited by DJ at 19:44, 2008-03-04

johnnylad · Tennis legend

Is Maes the suspected Druggie guy?

steven · Tennis legend

Great to see Kasiri get a win, and he really held his nerve as well, 12-10 in that 2nd set tiebreak - wow! biggrin

Unless Machado (who I've just noticed was ranked in the top 250 three years ago, for some reason I hadn't picked up on that before!) is feeling really knackered after last week, I'm sure he'll extend his winning streak to 14 in R1 tomorrow and I can't see Miles preventing him from getting to 15 the day after.

A pity James didn't get through too - from the score, he obviously had a more than decent chance, and a win might well have lifted him into the top 500 at the end of IW.

The rest of this post answers DJ's question - my next post has the 'final'(?) word on the specifics for each player, so feel free to skip to it or ignore them both ...

You got the top 500 analysis just about right, DJ, but here's a more complete background to it all ...

a) In working out the number of points 'usually' needed to reach the top 500, it's probably not worth looking back further than the end of last year, because before that, some players' rankings still included 1-pointers from Challenger R1 losses, including WC losses, so the ranking needed for a top 500 place may have been slightly higher. (I remember it being 51 one week though, even though that makes no sense!)

b) Because Edward, James and Miles all have their points spread across more tournaments than any of the players currently inside the top 500, we need to look at where 53 points from 17 or 18 tournaments would have got you.

c) At the year-end, the lowest-placed 53-pointer was in 501st. Since then, the position of the lowest-placed 53-pointer has varied between 489th (after week 6) to 499th now (it was the drop at the end of last week that caught me out, until then I thought Edward and James still had a good chance of making it next Monday), so 53 points have been enough for a top 500 place for the last 9 weeks.

d) However, because of a quirk of the way the dates work this year (too tedious to explain further, even if I could actually work it out wink

), no points will come off any player next Monday.

e) So, at least 499 players will remain ahead of Edward and James next Monday, even though Edward and James will then have 53 points ... hence James is sure to miss out and if anyone just outside the top 500 at the moment has made it to 53 or more points (from less counting tournaments than Edward) because of points scored in Futures last week or Challengers this week, then Edward will miss out too.

f) At the end of IW, the numbers of tournaments with points going on and off will be about equal. Given that nobody in the 491-500 range has points coming off between now and then, I think that 53 points from 17 events still won't be enough to reach the top 500 after IW unless they are very lucky with whoever is actually dropping points, so 54 (possibly even 55) points are likely to be needed if they are from 17-18 events.

g) However, at the end of Miami, according to steveg, points from 9 Challengers are coming off and only 4 going on and similarily, 27 Futures are coming off with only 18 going on.

h) So, at the end of Miami, I expect the 'usual' 53 points from any number of tournaments to again be enough for a top 500 place.

-- Edited by steven at 21:35, 2008-03-04

-- Edited by steven at 21:37, 2008-03-04