Olympics offering points (apparently it was in doubt before now)

DJ · County player

RE: Olympics offering points (apparently it was in doubt before now)

imoen · Admin: Moderator+Tennis Legend

phew! I was beginning to think I was being silly by getting myself confused as to whether there was an issue with Jamie or not, but reading through DJ's posts I'm now even more confused and very happy to have company in my confusedness.

Does anyone know why the ATP has put a limit of 86 male players on the whole thing? Why can't they allow as many as needed/wanted to fill two 64 player draws with entry based on ranking. using the combined ranking system already in place for doubles draws, and letting the top 10 doubles players in by right, if they don't get in otherwise. Surely that would be much simpler? (and even that isn't easy peasy)

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

I'm not too sure what the issue is here. Imoen, do you mean that you are worried that Andy cannot play with Jamie in the doubles because Andy's doubles ranking is not high enough?

Tim Henman played with Neil Broad in the 96 Olympics, and I wouldn't have thought he had a very high doubles ranking. Infuriatingly, the ATP show career highs for singles but not for doubles.

steven · Tennis legend

Tim's career high in doubles was 62, though that was 4 years after the Atlanta Olympics. Neil Broad's was 9, six years before the Atlanta Olympics. I doubt the same criteria applied back then though.

I think the overall limits for each sport are set to ensure that the Olympic village can cope and are negotiated between the organising committee and the sport's governing body, in this case the ITF.

I think people are more worried about Jamie not getting in because he's not a top 10 doubles player, but I think th rules are just written in a confusing way and aren't meant to mean that only the top 10 doubles players qualify based on doubles ranking - I'll be very surprised not to see Jamie and Andy playing in the doubles if they are both fit.

DJ · County player

I'm sorry I seem to have sewn confusion. Now let's go for illumination, instead.

First, numbers: the number of tennis players is limited by the International Olympic Committee (IOC), which allocates the numbers of places available to each sport; the ITF can ask for whatever it likes, but it's the IOC which decides!

Andy's place; there's no restriction on ANDY playing doubles, provided he has a partner - and the partner has to be British, of course.

Jamie's place: very doubtful, unless lots of singles players turn down the offer of a doubles place. Just think - of the 86 male players permitted, he has no chance of any of the first 64 spots, as they're for singles players - the next 10 places go to the top 10 doubles players. That leaves a maximum of 12 places into which we must hope Jamie can squeeze. The rules say that various criteria are involved at this point, including ranking, numbers of players in the country, geographical spread of those already in, who's turn it is to be manager of Newcastle United that month and which side of the bed the committee got out of that morning. Why should Jamie, apart from the fact that we all love him, be near the top of this list? I'm not optimistic, but as almost everyone else who posts here is, n'importe!

imoen · Admin: Moderator+Tennis Legend

Mad, as DJ has just said, it's Jamie's place I'm concerned about, and DJ explains very clearly and well, why there is concern there.

My confusion is more over why there seem to be two such polarised views as to whether Jamie will definitely get in, or very unlikely. I think the fact Andy want's to play doubles will work in Jamie's favour when it comes to letting him have a place. Especially if Andy manages to be firmly in the top 10 by then. I can't see them saying, no. Hopefully anyway. I just don't think it's a foregone conclusion yet, regardless of what the Murrays have said in the past.

And thank you everyone for clearing up the player numbers limit, that makes sense and is something I would never have thought of!!

steven · Tennis legend

OK, let's try and work out how they might really do this. If we assume that everyone in the top 100 has made sure they've made themselves 'available' for DC enough to be eligible and they take the top 64 players from the rankings who are also in the top 4 in their country, this would mean that everyone in the top 100 who was also in the top 4 in their country would take part, since by some strange coincidence, exactly 36 of the current top 100 are ranked 5 or below in their country.

These 64 would get into the singles: (ranking, country-country rank, name)

1 SUI-1 Federer
2 ESP-1 Nadal
3 SRB-1 Djokovic
4 RUS-1 Davydenko
5 ESP-2 Ferrer
6 USA-1 Roddick
7 FRA-1 Gasquet
8 RUS-2 Youzhny
9 ARG-1 Nalbandian
10 CZE-1 Berdych
11 GBR-1 Murray
12 USA-2 Blake
13 ARG-2 Canas
14 ARG-3 Monaco
15 ESP-3 Ferrero
16 CHI-1 Gonzalez
17 CYP-1 Baghdatis
18 ESP-4 Moya
20 FRA-2 Tsonga
21 FRA-3 Mathieu
22 AUS-1 Hewitt
23 CRO-1 Karlovic
24 CRO-2 Ljubicic
25 ARG-4 Chela
26 FIN-1 Nieminen
27 GER-1 Haas
28 GER-2 Kohlschreiber
30 FRA-4 Simon
32 SUI-2 Wawrinka
33 RUS-3 Andreev
34 RUS-4 Tursunov
35 ITA-1 Starace
36 CZE-2 Stepanek
39 CRO-3 Cilic
40 ITA-2 Seppi
41 ITA-3 Volandri
43 SRB-2 Tipsarevic
45 GER-3 Kiefer
46 KOR-1 Lee
52 SWE-1 Soderling
54 AUT-1 Koubek
55 BEL-1 Rochus
56 AUT-2 Melzer
57 SWE-2 Johansson
59 GER-4 Berrer
62 USA-3 Querrey
63 ISR-1 Sela
64 LAT-1 Gulbis
65 ITA-4 Bolelli
69 SWE-3 Bjorkman
71 BEL-2 Vliegen
73 USA-4 Spadea
75 ROU-1 Hanescu
80 BEL-3 Darcis
81 AUS-2 Luczak
82 ROU-2 Pavel
83 AUT-3 Eschauer
84 CAN-1 Dancevic
85 COL-1 Falla
86 AUS-3 Guccione
89 URU-1 Cuevas
90 NED-1 Haase
94 CHI-2 Massu
96 CZE-3 Minar

These 36 top 100 players would miss out (ranked 5 or below in their country)

19 ESP-5 Robredo
29 ESP-6 Verdasco
31 ESP-7 Almagro
37 ESP-8 Lopez
38 FRA-5 Santoro
42 ARG-5 Calleri
44 FRA-6 Mahut
47 FRA-7 Grosjean
48 FRA-8 Monfils
49 ARG-6 Del Potro
50 ARG-7 Acasuso
51 ESP-9 Montanes
53 FRA-9 Benneteau
58 RUS-5 Safin
60 FRA-10 Llodra
61 FRA-11 Gicquel
66 GER-5 Mayer
67 FRA-12 Clement
68 ESP-10 Ventura
70 ESP-11 Hernandez
72 RUS-6 Korolev
74 ARG-8 Berlocq
76 ARG-9 Roitman
77 USA-5 Fish
78 GER-6 Schuettler
79 ESP-12 Garcia-Lopez
87 FRA-13 Roger-Vasselin
88 FRA-14 Serra
91 FRA-15 Ascione
92 GER-7 Becker
93 ITA-5 Fognini
95 USA-6 Young

(to be continued)

steven · Tennis legend

Among the 64, ten countries have just 1 representative (CAN, COL, CYP, FIN, GBR, ISR, KOR, LAT, NED, URU) and six more (AUS, AUT, BEL, CRO, CZE & SWE) also have an odd number, i.e. 3, so 16 of the singles players have nobody to pair up with, even if all of the singles players deign to play in the doubles too.

That means that even if all the singles players who can pair up want to play doubles and do pair up, there will only be enough for 24 pairs, so they need 8 more teams (at least) and have 22 player spaces left.

Now let's look at the top 35 doubles players and have a guess as to what the IOC/ITF's priorities might be: (apologies in advance if you don't see the logic, hopefully some of you will!)

1 USA-D1 Bryan B - IN
1 USA-D2 Bryan M - IN - max 25 pairs, 20 spaces left
3 CAN-D1 Nestor - IN with Dancevic? - max 26 pairs, 19 spaces left
4 BAH-D1 Knowles - nobody to pair with?
5 CZE-D1 Vizner - IN with 3rd CZE singles player? - max 27 pairs, 18 spaces left
6 AUT-D1 Knowle - IN with 3rd AUT singles player? - max 28 pairs, 17 spaces left
7 SRB-D1 Zimonjic - IN with Nole as in DC (if Tipsy opts out of the doubles)? - max 29 pairs, 16 spaces left
8 FRA-D1 Clement - IN with Llodra (see below)
9 ISR-D1 Erlich - IN
9 ISR-D2 Ram - IN - max 29 pairs, 16 spaces left

The above 10 would have to be in anyway, if the top 10 stay as they are.

11 SWE-D1 Aspelin - in with 3rd SWE singles player? - max 30 pairs, 15 spaces left
12 FRA-D2 Llodra - IN with Clement - max 31 pairs, 14 spaces left
13 CZE-D1 Dlouhy - IN with Damm
14 CZE-D2 Damm - IN with Dlouhy - max 32 pairs, 12 spaces left

This would mean, then, that they could still get a full doubles draw if up to 12 players (6 of the 24 pairs I made up out of just the singles players) could choose not to play doubles and the ITF would then have 12 spots (6 pairs) left to pick. By the looks of it, they are bound to pick high-ranked pairs from countries with no singles entrants, e.g. Bhupathi/Paes, Fyrstenberg/Matkowski, almost certain not to pick players who have nobody obvious from their country to pair with, e.g. Ullyett - ZIM have nobody else ranked in doubles. So what might they do?

15 IND-D1 Paes - could pair with Bhupathi - see below - 11 spaces left
16 ZIM-D1 Ullyett - nobody feasible to pair with
17 AUS-D1 Hanley - could pair with no. 3 AUS singles player - 10 spaces left
18 FRA-D3 Santoro - can't play, FRA already have 6 players in total
19 IND-D2 Bhupathi - could pair with Paes - 9 spaces left
20 SWE-D2 Bjorkman - singles entrant
21 BLR-D1 Mirnyi - nobody obvious to pair with
22 POL-D1 Matkowski - could pair with Fyrstenberg - 8 spaces left
23 POL-D2 Fyrstenberg - could pair with Matkowski - 7 spaces left
24 ROU-D1 Pavel - their 2 singles players could pair so maybe not
25 RSA-D1 Coetzee - would they pair him with Moodie (38th) before letting Jamie pair with Andy? - 6 or 7 spaces left
26 FRA-D4 Benneteau - can't play, FRA already have 6 players in total
27 AUS-D2 Kerr - AUS already have 4 players in total, so maybe not
28 BRA-D1 Sa - could pair with Melo - 5 or 6 spaces left
29 NED-D1 Wassen - could pair with lone singles player Haase - 4 or 5 spaces left
30 USA-D3 Butorac - can't play, USA already have 6 players in total
31 ARG-D1 Prieto - could pair with Garcia, but ARG already have 4 players in total - 3-5 spaces left
32 BRA-D2 Melo - could pair with Sa - 2-4 spaces left
33 CZE-D3 Skoch - could pair with 3rd singles player, but CZE already have 5 players in total - 1-3 spaces left
34 ARG-D2 Garcia - could pair with Prieto, but ARG already have 4 players in total - 0-3 spaces left

35 GBR-D1 Murray J - could pair with Andy if there is a space left

... to be continued

-- Edited by steven at 13:50, 2008-02-13

steven · Tennis legend

I think Jamie/Andy might well be preferred to allowing (for example) Prieto-Garcia to pair up (either with other ARG players or with each other), either on the basis that it will add to the number of countries in the doubles or on the basis that Jamie/Andy have a better combined ranking if you combine Andy's singles ranking with Jamie's doubles ranking, as they do for ATPs nowadays.

However, this analysis does suggest that whether Jamie gets in or not could largely depend on:

- whether the maximum number of singles players opt out of playing doubles (the maximum number of pairs of singles players who can opt out and still allow there to be a 32-team draw is 86 - 64 = 22)
- whether his ranking goes up or down between now and June
- how many Chinese men are effectively given WCs (I think their two doubles players in the top 200 will, they have no other singles or doubles players in the top 490 of either list and they will probably have a full complement of female tennis players to assuage the crowds)
- other minor factors that could change between now and June

Finally, without looking at the 2004 draw in too much detail, they did have the same quota (86 players) then and they seemed to follow the kind of plan I set out above:

- they let Economidis (WR 271 six weeks earlier) into the singles and Economidis/Mazarakis (408 in singles) into the doubles - this suggests to me they will let one (but only one) Chinese doubles team in

- they found someone (Merklein) for Mark Knowles to play doubles with for the Bahamas, so maybe he will be playing in 2008 after all - bad for Jamie in that it cuts down the spaces, but supports my suggestion that they might prefer a first GBR doubles team over, say, a third ARG doubles team even if they prefer a team from a country without a singles entrant to a team from a country with one

- Yves Allegro (40 in doubles, outside the top 700 in singles) got in to play with Fed - which should give some encouragement to Jamie, since it suggests they will do their best to increase the number of countries in the doubles by combining a top singles player with a top 40 doubles player

So, in conclusion, it looks like it is touch and go - and apologies if most of you found this totally incoherent, but I've been writing it bit by bit in little breaks from working, so that's my excuse for losing the train of thought / repeating myself, etc! wink

RobC · All-time great

So: JAMIE, GET YOURSELF INTO THE TOP 25!!!!!

imoen · Admin: Moderator+Tennis Legend

wow, thanks for all that Steven. I was planning to do something similar (not quite as detailed) when I wanted to procrastinate and now I have no excuse, but apart from that..!!

Like you say Rob, we really need Jamie to get himself into the top25. Which could be difficult with the slew of points he's defending over the next couple of weeks. Hopefully his partnership with Max is solid now and they can replace tournament wins with tournament wins

DJ · County player

A real Tour de Force, there, Steven! Congratulations and thanks.
And excellently encapsulated, getting right to the nub of the matter, Rob.
What a team we'd all make if only we were doing something useful with our lives instead of playing 'What if ...'!
Like Bethan, I was planning to do something similar, and am mightily relieved that you got there first, Steven - and, believe it or not, I agree with every premise, every step of the argument. (If I were you, I'd be slightly worried at hearing that. I thought I should say that first myself, so Bethan can't get her dig in - she'll find another way of doing that, though, I'm sure

)

DJ · County player

Looking at it another way - can Jamie force his way into the top ten, thereby qualifying by right?
At the moment, 10th place (like 9th and 11th, strangely) is occupied with 3345 points. Jamie has 1390, but 1080 of them fall away by the end of May, the cut-off point; that would leave Jamie needing to pocket another 3000+. How can he manage that? With Tour event wins yielding between 175 and 300 points, and Masters 500, 3000 is an unrealistic target, I think, unless he and Max can win at Roland Garros, where there are 1000 points on offer. It would also help if the top 4 or 5 guys could win everything that Jamie doesn't, thereby bringing down the 10th place target level.
No, I don't think top ten is the answer; we can dream, of course, ...

wolf · Tennis legend

Entries should be announced today...day of reckoning for Jamie.

wolf · Tennis legend

Jamie confirmed to play with Andy in the doubles, and of course Andy is in the singles. smile