Predictions for 2008

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

RE: Predictions for 2008

steven · Tennis legend

Yes, Josh was the other one who outperformed significantly. The two who outperformed slightly were Jonny Marray and James Ward.

Interesting that the top pick in the poll as the Brit to watch in 2008 was Ken Skupski, who sadly is going to end the year up less than 100 places and still outside the top 600 - the average prediction was 398 and none of the six who predicted his position thought he wouldn't make the top 500.

One interesting (and perhaps slightly worrying) thing is that even though some of the 18/19 year-olds are up hundreds of places this year, only Evo (out of those people predicted for) has actually achieved the 'target' people's predictions set for him, e.g.

1) Dan Cox - average prediction 511, actual 833 (though Salmon's 392 was hedged with "if the LTA don't mess up his schedule, which they probably will" wink

)

2) Meatball - average prediction 638, actual 966

3) Dr No - average prediction 767, actual 965

Akhenaten · Pro player

Marcus Willis only played 7 tournaments though. Pretty hard to get any where up the rankings from so few tournies.

I'm sure most people thought he'd play a lot more times than that (...particularly Salmon!)

Ratty · County player

Here's one prediction that will be accurate every year, for every country with a similar message board:

The predictions of the regular posters will generally be ridiculously over-optimistic.

smile

Here's the predictions of a cynic for 2009:

Of the top 10 Brits/Frenchies/Argentinians, etc, a couple will do pretty well, a couple will do pretty badly, and the rest will end the year in much the same place as they started. And there's no point in trying to predict which player will fall in each category.

blankstare

Vandenburg · Futures level

tho ward is the only hope me thinks.

Count Zero · Tennis legend

its gunna be boggo's year, i can feel it.

Akhenaten · Pro player

Ratty wrote:

Here's one prediction that will be accurate every year, for every country with a similar message board:

The predictions of the regular posters will generally be ridiculously over-optimistic.

Here's the predictions of a cynic for 2009:

Of the top 10 Brits/Frenchies/Argentinians, etc, a couple will do pretty well, a couple will do pretty badly, and the rest will end the year in much the same place as they started. And there's no point in trying to predict which player will fall in each category.

Sounds fun Ratty!

I predict...
one to really well. smile

one to do quite well. smile

one to do quite badly. cry

one to stay about the same. blankstare

one to retire. cry

one to get a little bit injured. furious

one to get the measles. hmm

one to defect. bleh

one foreigner to nationalise as a Brit. Hurrah smile

and Alex B to make the Top 50. Go Boggo! biggrin

Can Steven make a table of our predictions?

Count Zero · Tennis legend

Can Steven make a table of our predictions?

course he can!!

My predictions:

1 to get a nice clothing contract

1 to get banned/funding cut by the LTA

4 To annoymuosly visit this site and slag each other off

1 to become a media darling for 2 weeks

Boggo to put on a good run at some point and get himself back in DC contention, then be blamed for british tennis's failure.

Robert Dee to arrange a match vs the other guy who lost a lot and retire mid way through the 1st set thus screwing that guys losing record.

FD to get to the 2nd rd of futures qualies.

Me to win a set off that bl00dy 14 yr old.

and i expect to see the table up and running live by the end of the week, with full search function ability, cross linked to previous predciton tables.

-- Edited by Count Zero at 17:14, 2008-12-11

steven · Tennis legend

Akhenaten - yes, I'm sure you're right - Meatball did well in the senior tournaments he did play in.
Ratty's predictions for next year should be spot on ...

Count Zero wrote:

Can Steven make a table of our predictions?

course he can!!

My predictions:

1 to get a nice clothing contract
1 to get banned/funding cut by the LTA
4 To annoymuosly visit this site and slag each other off
1 to become a media darling for 2 weeks
Boggo to put on a good run at some point and get himself back in DC contention, then be blamed for british tennis's failure.
Robert Dee to arrange a match vs the other guy who lost a lot and retire mid way through the 1st set thus screwing that guys losing record.
FD to get to the 2nd rd of futures qualies.
Me to win a set off that bl00dy 14 yr old.

and i expect to see the table up and running live by the end of the week, with full search function ability, cross linked to previous predciton tables.

Grrrr. No he can't.

As for your predictions ...

> 1 to get a nice clothing contract

> 1 to get banned/funding cut by the LTA

Sounds plausible, but more than one banned by the LTA, surely, after their "success" with Evo. Oops, I forgot, they only repeat their mistakes. evileye (oh the cheap cynicism LOL)

> To annoymuosly visit this site and slag each other off

... and they'll all be teenagers.

> 1 to become a media darling for 2 weeks

Very likely smile

> Boggo to put on a good run at some point and get himself back in DC contention, then be blamed for british tennis's failure.

Years of experience shows through that prediction. I'd put money on that one being right actually. cry

> Robert Dee to arrange a match vs the other guy who lost a lot and retire mid way through the 1st set thus screwing that guys losing record.

I reckon pay TV , don't you, like they do for the big boxing matches, which funnily enough I wouldn't bother to watch even if they paid me. Now Dee v Beltranena, that's a different matter ... wink

> FD to get to the 2nd rd of futures qualies.

Yes, I think he should go somewhere where he's got a chance of facing Mr Bye in QR1. wink (sorry FD, I don't mean it!)

> Me to win a set off that bl00dy 14 yr old.

I thought we weren't supposed to be doing ridiculously optimistic any more ... biggrin

steven · Tennis legend

Anyway, you can find the silly (and rather psychedelic) table for 2008 at http://www.britishtennis.net/gbtop25m/2008pred.htm

Read the blue line under the title before complaining about any predictions not being there, please. wink

Blue text is spot on, black over-optimistic and red over-pessimistic. The more blue the shading, the closer the prediction ... the more red, the further it was out. The worst picks were for Jamie B (long-term ill), Miles Kasiri (MIA) and Morgan Phillips (long-term injured), which is hardly a surprise, but the almost 80% over-optimistic rate overall is a bit of an eye-opener! ashamed

Salmon was (surprise! wink

) the most ridiculously over-optimistic picker, with all 8 predictions over-optimistic, 63% of them by more than 50%! He was also the only picker who got 1/4 of his picks within 10% though - Josh and Evo coming through for him.

Altogether only 8 of the 107 picks were less than 10% out - I hope nobody went off to the betting shop to put money on the year-end rankings ... disbelief

Sheddie and the Count didn't manage to get within 10% on any of the 29 picks they made between them, which is pretty shoddy! ashamed

JL was the next most over-optimistic with 90% of his picks doing worse than he expected. cry

Who'd have thought Bethan would be the equal least optimistic picker? She was still 62% over-optimistic though!

Finally, 15/21 players did worse than the consensus ... yet we still think it's been a pretty good year. Something doesn't quite work there, though I guess people also underestimated players like Flembo, Illy, Milton, Arlidge, etc by not picking for them at all, so perhaps that evens it out a bit.

Enjoy ... smile

-- Edited by steven at 20:58, 2008-12-11

Malteaser · Junior player

My faith in Kasiri, Seator and Baker let me down, trust them to get injured!!!

Problem for next year is we've got more reason to be optimistic, we'll probably all be even further out!!!

Vandenburg · Futures level

okie here our my final predictions for 2009

Murray -3
Ward -140
Goodall-190
Bogdanovic-250
Slabinsky- 250
Evans & Baker - 270
Bloomfield -350-retired
Eaton-400