So, Andy is out of the French Open and cannot be ranked higher than #11 at the end of the fortnight.
Several players can overtake him by reaching the semi-finals: Almagro, Mathieu, Stepanek and Robredo (but Stepanek and Robredo play each other tomorrow)
By reaching the final, Verdasco, Gonzalez, Hewitt and Ljubicic would overtake. However, only two of them could do that, obviously.
Finally, if any of Llodra, Soderling, Ancic or Benneteau win the whole tournament, they would overtake. Highly unlikely I would have thought! But the FO has thrown up some strange winners in the past. . .
I'm not clever enough to work out all the permutations to find out the lowest Andy could end up this fortnight. Not at this stage anyway.
Rather remarkably, everyone ranked 6 to 18, i.e. Andy and the 6 above him and the 6 below him, is now out of the French Open, none having reached the last 16.
In fact of these 13, Andy has made the most points gain compared to the French Open last year when he obviously got nul points.
His current prospective ranking is No.11 and anyone below him would have to reach at least the semi-final to overtake him. The four who would overtake hinm if they reached the semis are Mathieu, Alamagro, Stepanek and Gonzalez.
The bad news is that they are all in different quarters of the draw, the good news is also left in their quarters are respectively Djokovic, Nadal, Ferrer and Federer.
So good chance that Andy will be up to no.11, although theoretically he could end up as low as no. 15.
Andy is sitting at #11 at the moment, and as far as I can see the only one who could overtake this week is Fernando Gonzalez. He would have to beat Federer tomorrow to do so. . .
Andy is sitting at #11 at the moment, and as far as I can see the only one who could overtake this week is Fernando Gonzalez. He would have to beat Federer tomorrow to do so. . .
With Andy reaching the quarters at Queens and Gonzalez losing today, Andy is safe at #11 next Monday.
It is mathematically possible for him to pass Gasquet for #10 but unlikely; he would have to finish two rounds later than Gasquet - that is, reach the final with Richard going out in the quarters, or win the whole thing with Richard losing the semi. I think. I'm still not entirely comfortable with this anticipation lark
Edit - I have just realised that Gasquet has already passed Wawrinka, so Stani is the next in line for Andy to overtake - but he would have to reach the final to do it.
Hopefully, though, if Andy doesn't get Gasquet this week, well all I can say is enjoy defending these 450 points from last year's Wimbledon, Richard !
It's the latter end of the top 8 ( eg. Blake, Nalbandian ) that Mad really needs to get her pins into so Andy can perhaps close in a bit on them. Oh, and I don't like Almagro's race position, so potential ranking position, so he can have some pins too !
Oh, and I don't like Almagro's race position, so potential ranking position, so he can have some pins too !
A couple of months ago and I would have done it with pleasure. . . but actually I quite liked him when he played Andy in Paris (though I would have liked him a lot better if he had lost!)
But duty is duty. I will start sharpening the pins.
On consideration, we don't have to worry too much about Almagro's Race position, I think: that is on the back of the clay season and I would expect him to drop slowly over the grass/hardcourt seasons.
Today, as predicted, Andy stays at #11, and is still #11 in the Race too. You need a decent showing at Wimby, Andy!
This week, Andy is not playing in a ranking tournament and of those behind him only Stepanek and Mathieu are, both in Nottingham - but even one of them winning would not take him past Andy in the Entry system so we can breathe easily.
"I was just having a look at the rankings, and working out the old "What ifs" for Andy's ranking following Wimbledon.
Andy's ranking on Monday was no.11 with 1555 points. By reaching round 4, he has added 150 points ( and lost none since he missed last year ), so is currently on 1705 points.
1) If he loses to Gasquet in the last 16, he will finish on 1705 points and at best he will be no. 10 and at worst no. 12.
He falls below no.10 if any of the following reaches the final : Gasquet, Youzhny, Verdasco, Baghdatis, Hewitt, Lopez, Ancic, Tipsarevic or Cilic ( Cilic would actually be level ). All but the first 3 would actually have to win the title Clearly only at most 2 of these can reach the final
2) If he beats Gasquet, but then loses in the quarter finals, he will finish on 1805 points and at best he will be no. 9 and at worst no. 12.
He falls below no. 9 if Wawrinka reaches at least the quarter finals or if any of the following reaches the final : Youzhny, Verdasco, Baghdatis, Hewitt, Lopez or Ancic. All but Youzhny and Verdaso would actually have to win the title.
3 ) If he beats Gasquet, and ends up finally losing in the semi finals, he will finsih on 2005 points and at best he will be no. 8 and at worst no. 10.
He falls below no. 8 if Wawrinka reaches at leat the semi finals or if Verdasco wins the title.
4) If he beats Gasquet, and ends up finally losing the final, he will finish on 2255 points and at best he will be no. 6 and at worst no. 7
He would only be no.7 if it was Wawrinka that beat him in the final.
5) If he beats Gasquet, and goes on to win the title, he will finish on 2555 points, and be ranked no. 6 "
OK, I will post here this time . Well, it's all less complicated now and a much shorter post !
By reaching the qurter finals, Andy has added 250 points, so is currently on 1805 points.
1) If he loses to Nadal, he will finish on 1805 points, and at best he will be no 9 and at worst no 10.
He would only finish at no 10 if either Lopez or Ancic actually win the title. None of Safin, Schuettler or Clement can possibly catch him.
2) If he beats Nadal, and ends up losing in the semi finals, he will finish on 2005 points, and be definitely ranked no 8.
3) If he beats Nadal, and goes on to reach the final, he will finish on 2555 if he wins the title and 2255 if he finishes runner-up. Either way, he will be definitely ranked no 6,