The Akhenaten Rankings

steven · Tennis legend

RE: The Akhenaten Rankings

Akhenaten · Pro player

indiana wrote:

Yes, I am guessing these odds flow from Akhenaten's general rankings, and how players match up against their potential opponents, and make no allowance for particular recent good / bad form, so the odds maybe come with a slight health warning

I guess with Cox there may be a concern re the number of matches he has played recently but he still must logically be a much better than 4.4 % chance.

-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 27th of July 2010 02:50:48 PM

I have to admit if I had those odds I'd probably put money on Cox too! But if I put it like this the 4.4% seems to make more sense...

	Chance of a Cox win	Likely opponent
R1	82%	Marsalek
R2	52%	(5) Bossel (who beat Cox last month)
QF	46%	Bhambri (who has just turned 18, and has already won 5 futures titles)
SF	44%	(1) Alcaide (a challenger level player, who qualifed for Wimbledon this year)
F	50%	(2) Rochette (who himself won back-to-back Futures last month)

82% * 52% * 46% * 44% * 50% = 4.4%

angry1 · Lower Club Player

Akhenaten wrote:

indiana wrote:

Yes, I am guessing these odds flow from Akhenaten's general rankings, and how players match up against their potential opponents, and make no allowance for particular recent good / bad form, so the odds maybe come with a slight health warning

I guess with Cox there may be a concern re the number of matches he has played recently but he still must logically be a much better than 4.4 % chance.

-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 27th of July 2010 02:50:48 PM

I have to admit if I had those odds I'd probably put money on Cox too! But if I put it like this the 4.4% seems to make more sense...

Chance of a Cox win Likely opponent
R1 82% Marsalek
R2 52% (5) Bossel (who beat Cox last month)
QF 46% Bhambri (who has just turned 18, and has already won 5 futures titles)
SF 44% (1) Alcaide (a challenger level player, who qualifed for Wimbledon this year)
F 50% (2) Rochette (who himself won back-to-back Futures last month)

82% * 52% * 46% * 44% * 50% = 4.4%

Have you noticed at any level,but particularly lower ones,a tendency for players to outperform your rankings at home?

However you define at home.

-- Edited by angry1 on Tuesday 27th of July 2010 04:43:56 PM

Akhenaten · Pro player

Yes, it looks like there is some of an advantage in playing at home.

The table below shows the percentage that a higher-rated player beats a lower-rated one.

ie. When a British player is rated higher than their opponent they win 77.2% of the time if playing in Britain, but only 75.3% of the time playing abroad.

Interestingly, home advantage seems to make more of an advantage in the bigger tournaments rather the the other way round. Maybe due to support of the crowd in bigger events.

And oddly, the Spanish do better in foreign lands than in Spain! The futures level Spaniards doing far better away than at home (??)

And the Chinese massively under perform abroad.

	All (main draw only)			Futures & Satellites main draws Only
	Home	Away	Diff	Home	Away	Diff
GBR	77.2%	75.3%	1.9%	77.3%	76.5%	0.7%
USA	75.6%	72.4%	3.3%	74.7%	74.4%	0.2%
FRA	78.3%	74.5%	3.8%	78.2%	77.1%	1.1%
AUS	78.9%	75.2%	3.8%	78.3%	76.3%	2.0%
CHN	79.1%	70.6%	8.5%	79.3%	70.6%	8.6%
ESP	74.8%	75.5%	-0.7%	74.4%	77.7%	-3.3%
IND	73.9%	73.1%	0.7%	75.3%	74.6%	0.7%
BRA	81.2%	72.6%	8.5%	84.8%	74.6%	10.1%
GER	76.0%	73.9%	2.1%	77.3%	74.4%	2.9%
ARG	79.1%	75.3%	3.8%	80.3%	78.0%	2.2%
MEX	76.7%	73.7%	2.9%	76.3%	73.0%	3.2%
JPN	76.7%	75.4%	1.4%	77.0%	75.8%	1.2%

steven · Tennis legend

That's fascinating, though I'm not sure how statistically significant those differences are. Having said that, the Chinese and Brazilian figures make it very clear that there is a difference for their players.

You could also say that these figures show that the Brits benefit from home advantage less than players from most other countries do.

angry1 · Lower Club Player

Akhenaten wrote:

Yes, it looks like there is some of an advantage in playing at home.

The table below shows the percentage that a higher-rated player beats a lower-rated one.

ie. When a British player is rated higher than their opponent they win 77.2% of the time if playing in Britain, but only 75.3% of the time playing abroad.

Interestingly, home advantage seems to make more of an advantage in the bigger tournaments rather the the other way round. Maybe due to support of the crowd in bigger events.

And oddly, the Spanish do better in foreign lands than in Spain! The futures level Spaniards doing far better away than at home (??)

And the Chinese massively under perform abroad.

All (main draw only) Futures & Satellites main draws Only
Home Away Diff Home Away Diff
GBR 77.2% 75.3% 1.9% 77.3% 76.5% 0.7%
USA 75.6% 72.4% 3.3% 74.7% 74.4% 0.2%
FRA 78.3% 74.5% 3.8% 78.2% 77.1% 1.1%
AUS 78.9% 75.2% 3.8% 78.3% 76.3% 2.0%
CHN 79.1% 70.6% 8.5% 79.3% 70.6% 8.6%
ESP 74.8% 75.5% -0.7% 74.4% 77.7% -3.3%
IND 73.9% 73.1% 0.7% 75.3% 74.6% 0.7%
BRA 81.2% 72.6% 8.5% 84.8% 74.6% 10.1%
GER 76.0% 73.9% 2.1% 77.3% 74.4% 2.9%
ARG 79.1% 75.3% 3.8% 80.3% 78.0% 2.2%
MEX 76.7% 73.7% 2.9% 76.3% 73.0% 3.2%
JPN 76.7% 75.4% 1.4% 77.0% 75.8% 1.2%

Thanks a lot.

That's far more detailed than I was even hoping.

indiana · Tennis legend

Yes, I think most folk would have imagined from both theory and observaion that results are better when playing at home. Interesting to see to what extent this is borne out for players of a higher rank then their opponents.

Thge Spanish ones seem on the face of it quite curious, I wonder why. Maybe they are particularly good travellers, but to actually be better away from Spain is a bit strange. And in actual fact it is the "at home" figures that particularly compare unfavourably with other countries.

I wonder what the figs look like for players playing higher ranked opponents. My instinct is that home advantage may show up more for these theoretical underdogs, i.e. the home support / playimg in a home environment raises their level comparatively more plus they are less confident playing abroad compared to better / higher ranked players, whereas in some instances for the higher ranked player having home support may actually be a burden.

Sorry, not trying to put you to more work smile

But just wondering.

-- Edited by indiana on Friday 30th of July 2010 01:08:07 PM

Akhenaten · Pro player

Sorry Indy, I went and did something else, but I think it shows home advantage better.

The previous table might have been skewed because there are some countries which host tournaments with a larger breadth of player quality than others.

The new table shows the win percentage of matches involving only players of very close ratings (it includes matches where the odds are 45-55%).

Even the Spaniards come out with a slightly positive home advantage here!

	Home	Away	Diff
GBR	55.3%	46.6%	8.7%
USA	53.7%	46.6%	7.1%
FRA	56.5%	46.3%	10.2%
AUS	61.0%	50.6%	10.4%
CHN	59.0%	42.4%	16.6%
ESP	51.5%	49.9%	1.6%
IND	54.6%	46.7%	8.0%
BRA	56.6%	49.5%	7.1%
GER	53.4%	47.3%	6.1%
ARG	55.8%	47.0%	8.8%
MEX	53.7%	49.0%	4.7%
JPN	58.8%	45.5%	13.3%

indiana · Tennis legend

Yes, that doess really show the home advantage, comparing similarly ranked players, thanks.

I see the Australian, Chinese and Japanese have best records at home, I wonder if that is less how much better they feel at home than more the disadvantage, particularly distance travellingwise that in some cases their opposition may feel.

Aussies on the other hand are also comparatively good away, though I would guess they play away in big chunks and are kind of more based away. Chinese pretty poor comparatively away.

Spaniards again interesting in that although now coming out slightly positive on home advantage, they still don't seem to gain much at home or lose much away.

GB results don't appear to have particular significant differences away from the norm.

Akhenaten · Pro player

Roehampton...

Seed	AK Rank		Age	Titles	R2	QF	SF	F	W
3	347	Miloslav Mecir, Jr.	22	3	71%	64%	50%	32%	21.2%
1	355	Laurent Rochette	22	5	91%	76%	55%	37%	20.6%
2	409	Joshua Goodall	24	9	65%	46%	31%	18%	11.6%
6	477	Yuki Bhambri	18	5	87%	64%	41%	21%	9.4%
4	521	J. Vishnu Vardhan	23	1	79%	68%	38%	18%	7.6%
	471	Colin Ebelthite	25	6	67%	45%	23%	12%	6.7%
	544	Alexander Slabinsky	24	3	84%	32%	16%	7%	3.3%
5	574	Karan Rastogi	23	6	72%	50%	19%	8%	3.3%
7	538	Alexander Ward	20		59%	40%	17%	8%	3.3%
	545	James Mcgee	23		29%	23%	14%	6%	2.6%
	532	Marcus Willis	19		35%	20%	11%	5%	2.4%
	603	Joshua Milton	20	1	67%	29%	11%	5%	2.0%
	640	Rudy Coco	30	1	41%	25%	9%	4%	1.2%
	1310	Neal Skupski	20		73%	29%	9%	4%	1.0%
8	645	David Rice	21		33%	17%	6%	2%	0.9%
	761	Matthew Illingworth	23		62%	21%	9%	3%	0.8%
	708	Baptiste Bayet	26		67%	28%	8%	2%	0.6%
	796	Barry King	25		98%	22%	8%	2%	0.5%
	720	Alexis Musialek	22		33%	9%	2%	1%	0.2%
	869	Oliver Golding	16		38%	10%	4%	1%	0.2%
	1153	Edward Corrie	22		28%	13%	3%	1%	0.2%
	941	Elie Rousset	20		21%	14%	4%	1%	0.1%
	900	Divij Sharan	24	2	67%	10%	3%	1%	0.1%
	1003	Ashley Hewitt	18		33%	9%	2%	0%	0.1%
	1045	Albano Olivetti	18		53%	10%	2%	0%	0.0%
	1062	Burnham Arlidge	22		27%	5%	1%	0%	0.0%
	1184	Jack Carpenter	18		47%	8%	1%	0%	0.0%
	1081	Ashwin Kumar	24		13%	4%	1%	0%	0.0%
	1369	James Chaudry	19		9%	3%	1%	0%	0.0%
	1052	Jamie Feaver	23		33%	3%	1%	0%	0.0%
	1042	Antoine Escoffier	18		16%	2%	0%	0%	0.0%
	-	Nick Lester	33		2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%

-- Edited by Akhenaten on Tuesday 3rd of August 2010 08:34:31 AM

Akhenaten · Pro player

I haven't run my ratings for a while, a) because I've been very busy [I'd getting married in 8 days time!] & b) SteveG was dead, but has now has a resurrection.
Thought I run an end of the year financial report though.

Boggo still strongly holds onto being the 2nd best player in Britain in my ratings. Ward did overtake him at one point last year, but has fallen away again since.

		AK Rate	*	Age	Y-on-Y
6	Andy Murray	849.0		23y 10m	-2
190	Alex Bogdanovic	574.4		26y 10m	-31
263	James Ward	531.3		24y 1m	+70
302	Daniel Evans	511.2		20y 10m	+125
314	Jamie Baker	507.2		24y 7m	-41
364	Chris Eaton	477.2		23y 4m	+131
383	Colin Fleming	468.2	499.1	26y 7m	+22
387	Joshua Goodall	466.5		25y 5m	+28
404	Richard Bloomfield	459.8		27y 11m	-56
413	Dan Smethurst	457.3		20y 5m	-6
425	Daniel Cox	450.2		20y 6m	+188
448	Joshua Milton	435.8		21y 5m	+227
490	Morgan Phillips	418.1		26y 9m	-38
526	Alexander Ward	405.2		20y 11m	+24
548	Marcus Willis	398.6		20y 5m	+98
561	David Rice	393.3		22y 2m	+139
605	Liam Broady	377.3		17y 2m	+1128
635	Alexander Slabinsky	366.5		25y 0m	-12
709	Sean Thornley	336.0		21y 10m	+269
885	George Morgan	282.3		18y 1m	+472
908	Jack Carpenter	275.6		18y 11m	+184
915	Oliver Golding	273.8		17y 6m	+108
916	Ashley Hewitt	273.6		19y 1m	+209
949	Matthew Short	262.1		21y 2m	+385
951	Myles Blake	261.6	277.2	24y 1m	+62
976	James Marsalek	254.3		18y 11m	+417
977	Tom Farquharson	254.2		19y 1m	+410
1014	Andrew Fitzpatrick	241.7		21y 11m	+194
1028	Ross Hutchins	239.7	380.6	26y 1m	--
1063	Burnham Arlidge	226.6		22y 11m	-26
1081	Miles Bugby	221.1		24y 3m	--
1084	Jamie Feaver	219.2		24y 6m	+140
1151	Richard Gabb	198.0		19y 1m	+413
1184	Tim Bradshaw	187.5	207.9	26y 1m	+100
1193	James Chaudry	185.5	216.5	20y 0m	+599
1208	Alexander Farquharson	181.1	306.5	26y 10m	--
1221	George Coupland	178.4	221.1	21y 10m	--
1274	Andrew Gregory	164.8		21y 2m	-109
1289	Lewis Burton	159.5		19y 0m	+226
1327	Ben Pritchard	149.7		23y 2m	+19
1328	Chris Priddle	149.5		22y 9m	-49
1330	Kyle Edmund	149.1		16y 2m	--
1378	Daniel Cochrane	135.2		19y 0m	+929
1413	Ahmed El Menshawy	124.7		20y 0m	+356
1594	Tom Allen	72.9		19y 2m	+296
1603	David Baxendine	68.2		27y 6m	-60
1650	Philip Barlow	50.4		22y 9m	-23
1663	Keelan Oakley	46.9		19y 2m	+1042
1669	Marshall Tutu	44.2	55.1	19y 0m	--
1692	Toby Martin	36.5	56.9	18y 1m	+621
1711	Stefan Sterland-Markovic	29.9		18y 10m	+864
1781	Adam Thornton-Brown	4.2		19y 10m	+965
1797	Luke Bambridge	-3.7	45.5	16y 2m	--
1819	Max Gregor	-11.3	68.9	21y 5m	--
1850	James Hignett	-19.9	5.7	18y 1m	+586
1897	Joshua Jones	-40.0	60.2	21y 11m	--
1940	Oliver Hudson	-63.8	-57.4	17y 7m	--
1953	Lloyd Glasspool	-70.2	111.2	17y 4m	-76
1957	Robert Carter	-73.2	-17.1	17y 8m	+308
1968	Rogan Egerton	-78.7		24y 1m	+100

* Rating if played 25 matches in past year

Y-on-Y = 01/04/2011 vs 01/04/2010

indiana · Tennis legend

Very interesting to see these rankings again.

I had been wondering around the time of the discussions re the last Davis Cup team what they might reveal.

They most certainly do confirm some thoughts I had that Boggo and Jamie B were underrranked ( Boggo by even more than I had thought ) and that Dan Cox in particular and also Josh Milton to an extent were overranked just against who they had been beating and losing to.

Clearly Colin Fleming has produced some very good results lately which you have reflected. I must admit surprise at just how high Chris Eaton is ( do they reflect right up to date with his wins this week ? )

Great to see Liam Broady's position reflect not just that he has been gathering ranking points but been getting pretty good wins as well.

Anyway, all the very best with your upcoming nuptials, and I hope that you have negotiated that you will be allowed some time in future to do your rankings smile

Akhenaten · Pro player

This shows how Chris got his rating up since Nov...

He'll be even higher with his last 2 wins.

Player		Opponent		Date	Tournament	W/L	Rating	Opp Rat	Result	Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Blaz Rola	SLO	01/11/2010	Charlottesville Challenger	W	421	470	6-4 6-2	q-First Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Kaden Hensel	AUS	01/11/2010	Charlottesville Challenger	L	415	438	6-3 6-4	q-Second Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Tennys Sandgren	USA	08/11/2010	Knoxville Challenger	W	417	321	6-4 1-6 7-6(7)	q-Second Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Nick Monroe	USA	08/11/2010	Knoxville Challenger	L	412	497	6-4 6-1	Qualifying Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Malte Stropp	GER	15/11/2010	Champaign Challenger	W	413	261	5-7 6-4 6-2	q-Second Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Blaz Rola	SLO	15/11/2010	Champaign Challenger	W	423	460	6-7(3) 6-1 6-2	Qualifying Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Nick Monroe	USA	15/11/2010	Champaign Challenger	L	420	527	6-3 7-6(4)	First Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Marc Sieber	GER	10/01/2011	Great Britain F1	W	426	435	6-4 7-6(3)	First Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Juho Paukku	FIN	10/01/2011	Great Britain F1	W	437	464	6-2 6-4	Second Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Mirza Basic	BIH	10/01/2011	Great Britain F1	L	430	490	6-4 7-6(5)	Quarterfinals
Chris Eaton	GBR	Alexander Bury	BLR	17/01/2011	Great Britain F2	W	432	380	7-5 2-6 7-6(4)	First Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Michael Ryderstedt	SWE	17/01/2011	Great Britain F2	L	429	504	4-6 6-3 7-6(5)	Second Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Sandro Ehrat	SUI	24/01/2011	Germany F3	W	437	375	6-3 7-5	First Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Ervin Eleskovic	SWE	24/01/2011	Germany F3	W	447	407	7-6(8) 6-2	Second Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Henri Kontinen	FIN	24/01/2011	Germany F3	W	460	580	7-6(8) 6-3	Quarterfinals
Chris Eaton	GBR	Gero Kretschmer	GER	24/01/2011	Germany F3	W	465	509	7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(3)	Semifinals
Chris Eaton	GBR	Jan Mertl	CZE	24/01/2011	Germany F3	L	464	612	7-5 6-4	Finals
Chris Eaton	GBR	Jakob Sude	GER	31/01/2011	Germany F4	W	467	345	7-6(3) 6-7(6) 6-4	First Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Ervin Eleskovic	SWE	31/01/2011	Germany F4	L	461	425	7-6(5) 6-4	Second Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Francois-Arthur Vibert	FRA	28/02/2011	Cherbourg Challenger	W	464	360	6-4 6-1	q-First Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Ludovic Walter	FRA	28/02/2011	Cherbourg Challenger	L	457	491	6-4 7-6(2)	q-Second Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Joshua Goodall	GBR	07/03/2011	Great Britain F3	L	448	463	6-2 6-3	First Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Alexander Sadecky	SUI	14/03/2011	Great Britain F4	W	457	485	6-4 6-4	First Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Michael Lammer	SUI	14/03/2011	Great Britain F4	W	468	504	6-2 6-4	Second Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Dan Smethurst	GBR	14/03/2011	Great Britain F4	W	474	465	6-4 6-3	Quarterfinals
Chris Eaton	GBR	Michael Ryderstedt	SWE	14/03/2011	Great Britain F4	L	472	539	6-4 1-6 7-5	Semifinals
Chris Eaton	GBR	Richard Gabb	GBR	21/03/2011	Bath Challenger	W	472	198	6-3 6-3	q-First Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Ervin Eleskovic	SWE	21/03/2011	Bath Challenger	L	463	435	6-4 7-5	q-Second Round
Chris Eaton	GBR	Holger Fischer	GER	28/03/2011	Switzerland F3	W	477	498	7-6(1) 6-1	First Round

-- Edited by Akhenaten on Friday 1st of April 2011 09:32:08 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

Oh cheers, Akhenaten, I wasn't doubting you for a moment re Chris !

I was just saying they he wasn't someone I personally had had in my mind as would be much higher or lower in your rankings. So it was just something that I hadn't cottoned on to.

I dare say if I had really looked at his activity and now more particularly look at your post it will all become much clearer.

Thanks.

Akhenaten · Pro player

I was thinking to same to be honest that I didn't expect Cgris to be so high.

So it was as much for me as it was you.

Thought it would be a good insight into how the ratings work too.