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Post Info TOPIC: The Akhenaten Rankings


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RE: The Akhenaten Rankings


These ratings always feel pretty accurate. I'd be interested to see how an Akhenaten Ratings Bot (Nathan?), whether surface-specific or not, would perform in the pick'em tournaments.....

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If someone wants to do the research andenter such about, feel free!

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GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html



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May Ratings

Biggest riser of May was of course the Alexander "The Wardinator" Ward, who rose an incredible 747 places to crash into the top 1000 at 906 with his run to the final of Spain F19.

Neil "Bambam" Bamford had a good month up 95 places (though he is down 23 since start of the year.)  He reached the final of Greece F3 and had a lovely win over Gregorc at Surbiton.

Ken "The Skupster" Skupski also had a productive May - up 73.  Ken won Greece F2 and brilliantly beat Sijsling at Surbiton.


Biggest British Improvers 2008

Points                            Rank
+150 Alexander Ward     (up 1027 to  906)
+ 85 Sean Thornley        (up  317 to 1015)
+ 80 Matthew Illingworth (up  275 to  868)
+ 59 Kyle Brassington    (up  205 to 1379)
+ 41 Jamie Baker           (up   89 to  180)
+ 34 Dan Smethurst       (up  379 to 1139)
+ 27 Jonathan Kinsella    (up  115 to 1229)
+ 24 James Ward           (up   75 to  647)
+ 24 George Coupland    (up  371 to 1495)
+ 18 Niall Angus             (up 1217 to 1452)
+ 16 Jamie Feaver           (up   67 to 1396)
+ 11 Marcus Willis          (up   92 to 1067)
+ 10 Richard Bloomfield  (up   36 to  291)
+  9 Alexander Slabinsky (up   45 to  557)
+  7 David Rice               (up   20 to  980)
+  5 Kenneth Skupski     (up   31 to  564)

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Dec 07 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Andy Murray 7 5 6 5 8 9 6 4
Alex Bogdanovic 222 217 192 197 204 215 187 163
Richard Bloomfield 327 316
316
273
262
291
226
205
Jamie Baker 269 218 171 189 193 180 214 244
Joshua Goodall 385 427 446 422 351 378 337 339
Jonathan Marray - - - - - 491* 609* 407*
Alexander Slabinsky 602 595 618 572 595 557 508 449
Chris Eaton 607 657 643 740 737 673 473 455
James Ward 722 710 668 639 646 647 574 485
Kenneth Skupski 595 602 604 575 637 564 571 585
Morgan Phillips - - 1048* 893* 711* 639 636 609
Neil Bamford 696 734 757 777 814 719 705 635
Miles Kasiri 632 667 680 596 656 683 681 -
Ian Flanagan 631 732 746 735 714 716 - 732
Daniel Cox 804 898 973 868 891 956 821 743
Daniel Evans 864 918 958 1019 944 895 871 763
Matthew Smith 809 853 858 844 838 826 - -
Matthew Illingworth 1143 978 1091 958 892 868 903 852
Joshua Milton 896 917 947 997 939 955 860 856
Marcus Willis 1159* 1168* 1177* 1196* 1037* 1067* 1102* 918*
David Rice 1000 1010 1095 860 924 980 1048 973
David Brewer 884 892 936 918 915 - 933 954
Edward Allinson 899 933 929 929 917 - 928 980




-- Edited by Akhenaten at 13:37, 2008-08-05

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  Dec 07 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tom Rushby 797 914 967 1005 1016 1012 - -
Sean Thornley 1332 1164 1223 1162 1076 1015 978 1022
Edward Seator 1061 1083 1066 1076 1108 1109 1107 1035
Myles Blake 967 1023 1050 1051 1030 994 972 1037
Dan Smethurst 1518* 1301* 1157 1246 1071 1139 1110 1045
Alexander Ward 1933* 1944* 1771* 1805* 1653* 906 955 1091
Tim Hewitt 974 1007 1084 1088 1211 1172 1148 -
Edward Corrie - - - - - 1059* 988* 1128*
Richard Irwin 1084 1111 1154 1131 1161 - - -
Jonathan Kinsella 1344 1342 1345 1241 1231 1229 1154 1115
Jamie Feaver 1463 1520 1472 1494 1511 1396 1285 1243
Niall Angus 2669* 2850* 2447* 2146* 1912* 1452* 1387* 1255*
Jagdev Sagoo 1253* 1326* 1318* 1399* 1343* 1371* 1357* -
Tim Patient - - - 1846* 1760* 1613* 1465* 1358*
Kyle Brassington 1584 1523 1508 1361 1398 1379 1376 1368
George Coupland 1866* 1356* 1386* 1424* 1531* 1495* 1498* 1369
Burnham Arlidge 1916* 1822* 1833* 1671* 1702* 1667* 1435 1375
Neil Pauffley 1419* 1512* 1496* 1481* 1508* 1517* 1518* 1389*




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  Dec 07 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Chris Priddle 1617* 1566 1555 1577 1556 1522 1472 1411
Ben Pritchard 1384 1470 1454 1465 1474 1541 1529 1424
Ross Connolly 1331 1379 1435 1406 1457 1438 1439 1433*
Oscar Podlewski 1502 - - - - 1542* 1503* 1465
Ashley Watling 2393* 2413* 2395* 2127* 2180* 2164* - 1503*
Maniel Bains 1562* 1615* 1605* 1579 1584 1567 1567 1547
Philip Barlow 1553 1604 1598 1596 1636 1590 1573 1563
George Morgan - - - 1642* 1665* 1645* 1557* 1562*
Tim Bradshaw 1431 1593 1576 1632 1640 1706 1675 1644
Andrew Fitzpatrick 1819* 1841* 1791 1760 1773 1753 1786* 1693
Matthew James 2215* 2191* 2237* 2322* - - 1730* 1788*
James Richardson 1942* 1978* 1979* 2017* - - - 1731*
Amadeus Fulford-Jones 2034 2050 2059 2053 2058 2073 2066* -
Gregory Howe 2202* 2241* 2198* 2202 2231 2206 - 2248*
Robert Dee - - - - 3014* 2996* 3010* 3019*


This table shows how my rankings have changed over the year. It shows what good progress the Brits are showing.


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Nat 2007yo Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Rafael Nadal ESP 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 1
Roger Federer SUI 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
Novak Djokovic SRB 5 2 2 2 3 3 3 3
Andy Murray GBR 7 5 6 5 8 9 6 4
Andy Roddick USA 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5
Nikolay Davydenko RUS 11 9 11 13 5 5 5 6
Robin Soderling SWE - - 8 8 10 7 8 7
David Ferrer ESP 3 6 7 10 7 6 7 8
Nicolas Kiefer GER 15 17 19 25 26 27 20 9
Stanislas Wawrinka SUI 23 23 25 23 22 12 10 10
Mario Ancic CRO 28* 28* 14 9 9 13 11 11
Lleyton Hewitt AUS 9 14 17 18 17 16 12 12
Radek Stepanek CZE 17 19 18 14 16 8 9 13
David Nalbandian ARG 6 7 5 6 6 10 15 14
Juan Martin del Potro ARG 31 37 37 41 38 42 39 15
Marcos Baghdatis CYP 8 15 16 17 15 20 16 16
Fernando Verdasco ESP 24 34 35 39 47 21 13 17
Nicolas Almagro ESP 36 44 24 21 13 11 14 18
Richard Gasquet FRA 12 13 15 16 18 26 18 19
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA 29 12 13 12 14 17 19 -
Tommy Robredo ESP 26 38 42 52 33 22 27 20
Fernando Gonzalez CHI 21 27 20 30 25 14 17 21
Tomas Berdych CZE 13 11 9 11 12 15 23 22
James Blake USA 10 10 12 7 11 18 22 23
Ivo Karlovic CRO 14 18 22 26 37 32 24 24
Tommy Haas GER 19 20 33 22 30 29 29 25
Juan Carlos Ferrero ESP 27 16 23 24 21 19 26 26
Mikhail Youzhny RUS 18 8 10 15 20 28 25 30
Carlos Moya ESP 20 29 34 34 36 38 36 37
Paul-Henri Mathieu FRA 16 21 21 19 23 31 31 41
Guillermo Canas ARG 22 25 26 20 19 40 46 49


-- Edited by Akhenaten at 13:32, 2008-08-05

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Soderling at 7?

Interested to see Hewitt at 12th - I thought he was having a shocking year...guess it is based on opponents faced?

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As usual, these look subjectively more accurate than the real rankings in most cases.

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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!

GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html



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I suspect Hewitt is so high because of how few tournaments he's played... outside of the 3 slams, Queens, and Indian Wells (and maybe something before the Aussie Open), I don't remember his playing an event, and so he's beaten some decent players in those tournaments.

I'd have him around 12th in the rankings if he wasn't always injured (and his season will be over soon.... he'll play the Olympics, the US Open, Davis Cup, and then miss the indoor season for the 100th year in a row)

Soderling looks overranked, but probably doesn't lose to that many lower ranked players (and when he does, it's spectacular!)

Baghdatis at 16 is interesting, and he's probably there because he hasn't played any matches (think he's played RG and Wimbledon since March!!!), so hasn't had any losses that he's suffered.

Looks pretty accurate based on where players should be though... although the real rankings don't lie (other than injuries which distort some players lower than they should be)



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Blake's an interesting one.

He looks really low at no.23 and then I looked at his activity this year, and :

1)  He seem to have beaten precisely 0 of the current ATP top 10 all this year, and had 4 losses.

2)  He reached 2 ATP finals ( Delray Beach and Houston ) without evidently playing a single player in the top 50, including these he lost to in the final, Nishakori and Granlliers respectively.

3) His greatest wins of the whole year have really been 2 wins against Gasquet at Indian Wells and in the Davis Cup.

4)  Even when he reaches his seeded last 8 position in compulsories he doesn't often even beat anyone in the top 20, and then loses as soon as he encounters players ranked above him.

It's almost as if he has been saved by keeping a top 8 ranking for most of the year, playing to it in major tournaments, but basically beating noone and occasoonally getting beaten by much lower ranked players.  It's quite an art form  smile  But maybe, if he began slipping down the officilal rankings, he could keep falling.

The Akhenaten rankings certainly find him out, and maybe tell a hidden truth !

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I've been asked to publish this table again, so I have.
It's for Futures in 2007 & 2008.
It shows the average Akhenaten Rating of the losers in each round by hosting country.

  Cont No. 1Q 2Q 3Q FQR 1R 2R QF SF RU Winner Avg Main Draw Rating
France WE 39 -32 91   185 371 424 474 498 531 554   416
Germany WE 42 -110 73   197 333 401 436 463 500 531   382
Switzerland WE 9 -36 62   199 336 388 426 441 460 511   376
Portugal WE 13 -119 75 186 169 301 413 433 470 505 532   370
Croatia EE 19 -39 83 221 237 323 376 431 459 501 510   370
Great Britain WE 40 -106 57   184 320 371 432 468 500 538   368
USA NAm 54 -194 -44 91 210 318 385 430 452 478 507   368
Spain WE 71 -116 46 104 207 313 380 431 469 497 524   367
Korea EAsia 7 -25 142   244 303 403 441 450 496 487   367
Netherlands WE 9 -180 -111   90 305 379 438 485 551 528   366
Czech Republic EE 10 -43 -33   116 314 388 416 440 477 546   365
New Zealand Aus 4 -161 25   184 304 366 453 468 512 478   360
Canada NAm 6 -154 42   203 315 361 416 438 483 511   358
Sweden Scan 7 -157 69   86 310 350 421 439 433 504   352
Italy WE 69 -34 15   139 289 369 434 466 478 530   352
Austria WE 20 26 114   184 302 356 402 434 464 500   347
Uruguay SA 2 -223 -52   195 274 347 438 544 568 495   346
China EAsia 13 -164 -36   124 294 355 417 439 466 493   345
Luxembourg WE 1 -320 27   146 290 348 442 455 477 454   345
Dominican Republic CA 3 21     234 278 393 398 407 467 530   343
Slovenia EE 6 -189 10   151 276 370 412 468 464 519   342
Israel ME 5 -235 -144 79 158 291 339 413 439 477 526   340
Costa Rica CA 2 -68 36   249 278 379 372 442 446 515   338
Turkey EE 14 -55 100 192 163 280 355 408 447 457 503   338
United Arab Emirates ME 2 -359 -226   -64 239 361 479 513 535 568   336
Bosnia/Herzegovina EE 12 -192 19   187 272 355 402 427 446 491   331
Cuba CA 2 -185 -12   189 260 345 371 403 434 466   316
Argentina SA 31 -160 -35   102 247 321 398 446 469 505   312
Hungary EE 4 -100 1   104 252 342 366 426 453 433   312
Australia Aus 19 -187 -47   84 255 311 389 434 462 486   311
Morocco NA 12 -184 -78   22 232 327 403 460 508 548   310
Poland EE 16 -209 -90   78 239 321 390 437 454 479   305
Slovakia EE 6 -157 23   156 246 333 352 411 410 495   304
Malaysia SAsia 2 -313 -28   102 210 368 383 421 489 535   303
Japan EAsia 22 -158 -67   101 231 319 388 404 451 473   298
Spain* (Canaries/Melilla) NA 14 -198 -107   34 211 330 413 427 439 485   295
Uzbekistan USSR 4 -235     -72 200 324 427 461 490 528   295
Ghana Afr 2 -170 -19   181 199 349 393 468 460 499   295
Tunisia NA 7 -157 229   58 236 301 373 399 426 491   294
Ireland WE 4 -187     -50 227 313 366 437 402 499   293
Guatemala CA 2 -239 -42   99 219 308 382 428 488 520   293
Thailand SAsia 9 -84     68 222 313 366 381 445 479   288
Serbia EE 11 -251 -114   25 223 296 367 412 440 461   286
Lithuania USSR 4 -200 -38   154 214 310 355 395 408 512   282
Belgium WE 3 -147     23 226 289 330 425 440 467   281
Belarus USSR 8 -279 -142   -4 220 284 365 411 420 488   281
Colombia SA 9 -338 -315   -166 183 301 418 440 475 502   277
Macedonia EE 3 -211 -101   -60 207 291 369 383 444 516   276
Romania EE 36 -196 -62   90 210 280 369 397 438 474   274
Bulgaria EE 15 -268 -163   4 213 279 356 390 427 460   273
Panama CA 2 -310 -10   149 194 274 399 398 446 518   270
Cote D'Ivoire Afr 2 -214     43 180 319 385 371 426 509   270
Indonesia SAsia 9 -154 -90   85 199 290 329 372 408 449   263
India SAsia 17 -260 -180   -5 202 266 334 386 411 472   261
Egypt NA 11 -242 -107   34 186 259 376 448 435 477   261
Mexico CA 28 -251 -161   34 169 294 364 406 443 460   257
Ukraine USSR 6 -253 -109   115 178 288 356 339 373 455   253
Russia USSR 15 -188 -178   -4 156 272 368 418 455 498   248
Finland Scan 3 -336 -145   -130 188 258 309 368 448 436   248
Chile SA 11 -240 -118   10 163 263 355 422 430 518   248
USA* (Hawaii) Haw 4 -297 -177   -8 178 256 327 377 434 431   244
Latvia USSR 2 -233 -15   104 150 285 340 379 384 452   239
Norway Scan 6 -195 -43   18 156 266 325 416 422 448   238
Greece EE 9 -165     -23 171 255 318 374 377 412   237
Brazil SA 45 -270 -135   12 156 254 328 390 412 472   234
Estonia USSR 1 -311     -180 165 270 339 364 226 394   234
El Salvador CA 3 -323 -113   -52 115 199 393 360 473 527   210
Venezuela SA 19 -273 -148   -91 130 221 317 368 393 451   209
Georgia USSR 4 -287     -133 112 218 341 404 438 514   208
Peru SA 8 -233 -162   -40 141 222 314 328 325 390   208
South Africa Afr 3 -319 -263   -120 141 202 312 368 331 419   206
Paraguay SA 3 -260 -131   -15 95 240 329 398 439 503   203
Nigeria Afr 8 -233     -164 105 221 315 401 422 464   200
Armenia USSR 1 -248     25 80 272 339 270 499 443   197
Sudan Afr 2 -255     -136 95 235 326 285 216 262   180
Syria ME 2 -280     -248 59 238 323 344 375 422   176
Bolivia SA 7 -301 -261   -154 80 190 325 336 414 433   175
Kuwait ME 4 -347     -252 23 152 385 476 487 494   158
Algeria NA 3 -267     -194 -11 224 354 426 492 554   154
Namibia Afr 1 -249     -197 80 188 254 264 207 291   151
Ecuador SA 10 -327 -179   -140 50 177 279 337 380 404   150
Iran ME 10 -377 -343   -226 7 198 336 427 420 469   149
Kazakhstan USSR 3 -318     -228   196 315 360 335 420   135
Nicaragua CA 1       -319 -38 160 426 392 474 498   129
Botswana Afr 1 -371     -156 -20 193 250 239 211 285   100
Pakistan SAsia 6 -354     -254 -19 125 236 305 313 393   93
Senegal Afr 4 -341     -292 -50 71 277 419 428 448   81
Uganda Afr 2 -231     -217 -65 70 236 350 386 489   64
Azerbaijan USSR 1 -356     -270 -71 -36 196 424 307 355   27
Rwanda Afr 2 -330     -337 -167 88 181 202 325 483   -1
Burundi Afr 1       -400 -100 -27 135 165 307 453   -6
Cameroon Afr 1         -117 -104 120 144 335 441   -36


-- Edited by Akhenaten at 13:06, 2008-11-14

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Sorry the formattings a bit odd, was struggling with the size of the table.


Continent No. 1Q 2Q 3Q FQR 1R 2R QF SF RU Winner Avg Main Draw Rating
West Europe 320 -85 58 130 174 316 383 434 468 495 529   369
North America 60 -191 -38 91 209 318 382 429 450 478 508   367
East Asia 42 -132 -14
132 263 344 406 422 463 481   324
Australisia 23 -184 -35
101 264 321 400 440 471 484   319
East Europe 161 -146 -22 207 105 247 321 384 420 448 484   307
Scandinavia 16 -199 4
20 229 302 364 417 432 470   290
North Africa 47 -203 -86
26 200 302 392 436 457 505   282
Central America 43 -211 -125
62 181 298 373 405 450 479   266
South Asia 43 -213 -141
-2 175 266 328 371 405 459   245
Ex-USSR 49 -239 -109
-10 158 269 359 399 420 483   244
Hawaii 4 -297 -177
-8 178 256 327 377 434 431   244
South America 145 -241 -120
-12 163 259 347 398 423 472   242
Middle East 23 -314 -253 79 -134 96 239 372 438 451 491   211
Africa (Central/South)
29 -256 -166
-148 49 173 288 350 371 438   151


-- Edited by Akhenaten at 13:06, 2008-11-14

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This is all obviously with the preface of "If you believe my Ratings". (I do..)


It shows some interesting stuff like...
  • The average runner-up in an African Futures is worse than the average 2nd round loser in a West Europe Futures.
  • Runner-ups of ex-USSR Futures are worse than losing Quarter-finalists in West European Futures.
  • The average strength of the 8 Peru Futures winners is only a bit better than the average 1st Round loser in France!
  • The Scandiavian Futures are surprisingly weak.
  • Middle East tend to have very weak 1st round losers, but their semifinalists & finalists tend to be quite strong.
  • North Africa Futures (Morocco/Tunisia/Egypt etc.) are far far stronger than the Futures in the rest of Africa.

This is what the ratings mean on a match level...

Difference in Ratings Chance Of Winning
0 50%
10 53%
20 56%
30 58%
50 63%
100 73%
150 81%
200 87%
300 95%
400 98%
500 99%





-- Edited by Akhenaten at 14:34, 2008-11-14

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Fascinating stuff as usual mate!

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Of all tyrannies a tyranny exercised for the good of its victim may be the most oppressive....  those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience

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