The Akhenaten Rankings

john · Top national player

RE: The Akhenaten Rankings

RobC · All-time great

yeah - I thought the French lead would be something to do with all the 15K+Hs they have.. great stats, Akhenaten

RobC · All-time great

re Spain, John - looks like they're some of the toughest 10Ks! strangely the 10Ks are harder than the spanish 15Ks!

DJ · County player

RobC wrote:

strangely the 10Ks are harder than the spanish 15Ks!

Wonder if it's the time of year they're played? Perhaps the 10ks have relatively little competition nearby, whilst Spanish 15Ks march with French, British or other relatively popular tournaments?

I echo Rob's comment, Akhenaten - fascinating stats!

steven · Tennis legend

Akhenaten wrote:
Surprisingly perhaps, Croatia 15s come out as the toughest futures in the world.

This doesn't surprise me - the Brits had a terrible time there, and when I've been looking up opponents recently, there have been quite a few who regularly get to the QFs and SFs of other Futures, but have gone out in R1 of the Croatian 15Ks they've played in.

Speaking as someone with a lot of experience of stuff like this outside tennis, I'd say there's little doubt that whatever flaws there may be in your system (and there are flaws in every rating/ranking system, however well thought out), it's far more accurate than the ATP rankings. smile

What really foxes me though is how you have managed to collate all the data, since tennis data is not that easy to collate in the way you must have done it - I'm seriously impressed! How do you do it in a way that allows you to keep doing these updates? (if you're willing to let me know but you think everyone else would be too bored by the details, feel free to pm me!)

DJ · County player

steven wrote:

What really foxes me though is how you have managed to collate all the data, since tennis data is not that easy to collate in the way you must have done it - I'm seriously impressed! How do you do it in a way that allows you to keep doing these updates? (if you're willing to let me know but you think everyone else would be too bored by the details, feel free to pm me!)

'everyone', Steven? Surely you two can't be the only whizz kids on the site; what about Rob? Personally, though, I'm just delighted that you lot are here, so that we poor mortals can enjoy what you all produce!

johnnylad · Tennis legend

No, post it!

Akhenaten · Pro player

I'm not sure how to post this without it being terribly boring, but here goes...

I've an Access database, with a Results, Players & Tournaments tables.

And I've a written a program that looks at the "http://www.stevegtennis.com/results/2008/" page checks the last modified date, and opens those pages where that's bigger than the last import date. eg. "http://www.stevegtennis.com/results/2008/f-canada1.txt"

If it's not in the Tournaments table in the Access Database it imports the details (eg. Date, Surface, Name) into that.

Then it deletes any entries in the Results table, and then goes thru each line in the text file and imports them into the Results table, if it comes across a new player it imports them into the Players table.

That's it. Anyone still awake??

Then with the results in the database, I can do what I like with queries.

And then there's also the program in Access that calculates the ratings.

Akhenaten · Pro player

john wrote:

I thought Spain would be a lot higher!

Looking closer at this, Spain gets drags down massively by futures held in Canary Islands & Melilla (a Spanish port in Morocco).

Spain's average rating without these is 380, which puts them up to 5th (a place above Portugal).

It's the same thing for the USA futures - there are 2 very weak futures held in Hawaii with an average of 190 (just better than Sudan).

Without these Hawaiian events included, the USA has an average of 376, which puts them ahead of Portugal too.

RobC · All-time great

any chance of getting an ODBC link to your dbase?

steven · Tennis legend

Akhenaten wrote:

john wrote:

I thought Spain would be a lot higher!

Looking closer at this, Spain gets drags down massively by futures held in Canary Islands & Melilla (a Spanish port in Morocco).

Spain's average rating without these is 380, which puts them up to 5th (a place above Portugal).

It's the same thing for the USA futures - there are 2 very weak futures held in Hawaii with an average of 190 (just better than Sudan).

Without these Hawaiian events included, the USA has an average of 376, which puts them ahead of Portugal too.

If we assume these ratings are reasonably accurate (and as I've said before, I'm sure they're considerably more accurate than the ATP rankings), this comparison of different tournaments is potentially dynamite information for those players looking to target the tournaments that maximise their expected ranking points.

For the tournaments that are obviously going to be weaker because they're hard to get to (like the island tournaments you've mentioned here or the African tournaments), players can probably work it out for themselves, and the remoteness might stop them going there anyway. However, if some countries' Futures are weaker than those in surronding countries after taking into account their prize money level, or if it's possible to flag some individual tournaments which tend to be weak, players could make good use of that info as one element in planning a schedule as long as all the other players didn't know about it too! It could, for example, be a way of finding African-standard Futures without having to go to Africa.

Equally, the info could be used to avoid tournaments that are a lot stronger than you'd expect them to be, i.e. Ivory Coast seems to be a fair bit stronger than Nigeria.

Maybe new poster courtcrazy (see the Gatineau thread) would be interested in trying this out, since being in Gatineau suggests that group already try to identify good scoring opportunities - your data would just provide a more scientific way of doing it.

-- Edited by steven at 16:26, 2008-03-06

Akhenaten · Pro player

Ratings - end of March.

Rank	+/-			Rating
5	(+1)	Andy Murray	20y 10m	824.9
189	(-18)	Jamie Baker	21y 7m	576.5
197	(-5)	Alex Bogdanovic	23y 10m	569.7
273	(+43)	Richard Bloomfield	24y 11m	533.2
422	(+24)	Joshua Goodall	22y 5m	468.9
535	(+17)	Jamie Delgado	31y 0m	424.2	(487.7)
572	(+46)	Alexander Slabinsky	22y 0m	408.8
575	(+29)	Kenneth Skupski	24y 11m	408.4
596	(+84)	Miles Kasiri	22y 2m	401.5
639	(+29)	James Ward	21y 1m	385.7
735		Ian Flanagan	26y 2m	355.8
740	(-97)	Chris Eaton	20y 4m	354
777	(-20)	Neil Bamford	26y 1m	338.2
844		Matthew Smith	23y 7m	315.1
860	(+235)	David Rice	19y 2m	309.8
868	(+105)	Daniel Cox	17y 6m	306.4
893	(+155)	Morgan Phillips	23y 9m	298.1	(398.4)
918		David Brewer	23y 1m	291.9
929		Edward Allinson	21y 1m	290
958	(+133)	Matthew Illingworth	20y 9m	284.7
997	(-50)	Joshua Milton	18y 5m	268
1005	(-38)	Tom Rushby	21y 9m	265.4
1019	(-61)	Daniel Evans	17y 10m	261.5
1051		Myles Blake	21y 1m	252
1076		Edward Seator	21y 11m	246.8
1088		Tim Hewitt	18y 7m	242.1
1131	(+23)	Richard Irwin	22y 8m	228.9
1136		Harry Skinner	19y 4m	227.2
1156	(+32)	Alexander Farquharson	23y 10m	220.2	(240.6)
1162	(+61)	Sean Thornley	18y 10m	218.9
1196		Marcus Willis	17y 5m	211.7	(248.4)
1201	(-28)	Andrew Kennaugh	20y 9m	210.8	(221.7)
1241	(+104)	Jonathan Kinsella	24y 1m	198.7
1246	(-89)	Dan Smethurst	17y 5m	195.7
1361	(+147)	Kyle Brassington	20y 8m	158.8
1368		Andrew Hamar	23y 7m	156.9	(257.2)
1399	(-81)	Jagdev Sagoo	20y 5m	148.5	(174.1)
1406	(+29)	Ross Connolly	25y 1m	144.6
1424	(-38)	George Coupland	18y 10m	137	(152.6)
1441		Jamie Murray	22y 1m	132.6	(314)
1465		Ben Pritchard	20y 2m	124.9
1481		Neil Pauffley	18y 0m	120.1	(145.6)
1489		David Baxendine	24y 6m	117.6
1494		Jamie Feaver	21y 6m	115
1518		Chris Llewellyn	19y 8m	107.1	(138)
1577		Chris Priddle	19y 9m	85.5
1579		Maniel Bains	18y 11m	85.3
1580		Philip Stephens	19y 0m	84.7	(266.1)
1596		Philip Barlow	19y 9m	79.1
1608		Joshua Miller	19y 4m	75.6	(91.2)
1632	(-56)	Tim Bradshaw	23y 1m	66
1642	(NE)	George Morgan	15y 1m	62.7	(244.1)
1644		Luke Campbell	22y 11m	62
1671	(+162)	Burnham Arlidge	19y 11m	51.8	(72.2)
1728		Jeffrey Zungunde	19y 1m	29.7	(66.4)
1749		Ekow Carboo	22y 11m	22.8	(112.5)
1760		Andrew Fitzpatrick	18y 11m	17.5
1805		Alexander Ward	17y 11m	5.4	(54.6)
1846	(NE)	Tim Patient	22y 6m	-13.9	(167.5)
1851		Dan Cottier	24y 3m	-16.6
1913		Adam Barratclough	24y 0m	-43.3	(138.1)
1930	(-52)	Orion Modebe	19y 11m	-52.4	(-36.8)
1966	(-43)	Tom Knights	18y 0m	-67.6	(12.6)
1993		Ned Boone	20y 9m	-78.2	(-22.1)
2005	(+109)	Ben Dunbar	18y 7m	-85.5	(-42.8)
2017		James Richardson	18y 0m	-90.9	(34.5)
2024	(-81)	Pete Francis	18y 7m	-93.9	(31.5)
2053		Amadeus Fulford-Jones	22y 9m	-109.7

The Brits have had a pretty good March, with most of our top players rising.

David Rice had the best March. Up 235 places to 860th - helped his excellent run to the quarter-finals in Zaragoza last week.

Dan Cox has had a pretty good month too, even if it's not returned him a single ranking point! His endeavours in Turkey have taken him up 105 places to 868th.

Matt Illingworth has followed up his great January & his awful February, with a good March. His good work in Portugal & Jersey has seen him rise 134 places to 957th.

Miles Kasiri was very consistent - quarterfinalist twice & 2nd Round twice, in Portugal & GB. Up 84 places to 596th.

Jonathan Kinsella & Kyle Brassington both had a good time in Canada, up 108 & 149 places respectively to 1237th & 1359th. Brassington's quarterfinal appearance was a nice surprise.

Chris Eaton had a bad month, falling almost 100 places down to 740th after having a bad time of it in Portugal. And Dan Smethurst and Josh Milton also struggled in Turkey (falling 88 & 50 places).

____________

Andy Murray reclaims 5th place from Nalbandian. A win over Federer always helps!

The two biggest March risers were the two unexpected finalists in Las Vegas - 20yo champion Sam Querrey (up 34 to 47th) & 21yo runner-up Kevin Anderson (up 76 to 76th).

Further down the rankings, the 17yo Pole, Jerzy Janowicz, rose dramatically, up 281 to 355th after winning the Liechtenstein Futures. Janowicz is in Exmouth this week.

http://akhenatenratings.blogspot.com

Akhenaten · Pro player

These are the top Under 18s...

		Country	Rating	Age
1	Vladimir Ignatik	BLR	514.1	17y 8m
2	Jerzy Janowicz	POL	497.9	17y 4m
3	Ricardas Berankis	LTU	465.7	17y 9m
4	Jonathan Eysseric	FRA	461.4	17y 10m
5	Gastao Elias	POR	408.5	17y 4m
6	Bernard Tomic	AUS	399.9	15y 5m
7	Grigor Dimitrov	BUL	375.1	16y 10m
8	Ryan Harrison	USA	367.9	15y 10m
9	Jaan-Frederik Brunken	GER	366.4	17y 11m
10	Milos Raonic	CAN	362.2	17y 3m

18	Daniel Cox	GBR	306.4	17y 6m
33	Daniel Evans	GBR	261.5	17y 10m
38	Marcus Willis	GBR	248.4	17y 5m
51	Dan Smethurst	GBR	195.7	17y 5m
98	Alexander Ward	GBR	54.6	17y 11m
167	Lewis Barnes	GBR	-126.5	17y 10m
172	Ashley Watling	GBR	-136.7	17y 9m
177	George Morgan	GBR	-145.8	15y 1m
197	Nial Angus	GBR	-188.5	17y 10m
205	Scott Sears	GBR	-200.7	17y 7m
211	Greg Goodall	GBR	-220.0	17y 2m
218	Matthew James	GBR	-238.6	17y 7m
224	James Chaudry	GBR	-257.1	17y 0m
241	James Marsalek	GBR	-302.4	15y 11m

These are the top Under 19s...

		Country	Rating	Age
1	Donald Young	USA	653.8	18y 8m
2	Kei Nishikori	JPN	648.1	18y 3m
3	Vladimir Ignatik	BLR	514.1	17y 8m
4	Jerzy Janowicz	POL	497.9	17y 4m
5	Yan Bai	CHN	487.2	18y 10m
6	Martin Klizan	SVK	483.0	18y 8m
7	Peter Gojowczyk	GER	476.6	18y 8m
8	Brydan Klein	AUS	472.4	18y 2m
9	Ricardas Berankis	LTU	465.7	17y 9m
10	Jonathan Eysseric	FRA	461.4	17y 10m

47	Daniel Cox	GBR	306.4	17y 6m
76	Joshua Milton	GBR	268.0	18y 5m
81	Daniel Evans	GBR	261.5	17y 10m
92	Marcus Willis	GBR	248.4	17y 5m
95	Tim Hewitt	GBR	242.1	18y 7m
100	Graeme Dyce	GBR	238.4	18y 8m
116	Sean Thornley	GBR	218.9	18y 10m
138	Dan Smethurst	GBR	195.7	17y 5m
174	George Coupland	GBR	152.6	18y 10m
181	Neil Pauffley	GBR	145.6	18y 0m
232	Maniel Bains	GBR	85.3	18y 11m

(Neither of these aren't weighted for age.)

-- Edited by Akhenaten at 17:51, 2008-03-31

Akhenaten · Pro player

End of April Rankings

Rank	+/-			Rating
8	(-3)	Andy Murray	20y 11m	812.5
193	(-4)	Jamie Baker	21y 8m	576.9
204	(-7)	Alex Bogdanovic	23y 11m	570.2
262	(+11)	Richard Bloomfield	25y 0m	535.9
351	(+71)	Joshua Goodall	22y 6m	496.1
521		Jamie Delgado	31y 1m	424.2	(487.7)
595	(-23)	Alexander Slabinsky	22y 1m	398.4
637	(-62)	Kenneth Skupski	25y 0m	386.1
646		James Ward	21y 2m	382.8
656	(-60)	Miles Kasiri	22y 3m	379.2
711	(+182)	Morgan Phillips	23y 10m	360.4	(380.9)
714	(+21)	Ian Flanagan	26y 3m	360
737		Chris Eaton	20y 5m	355.2
814	(-37)	Neil Bamford	26y 2m	325
838		Matthew Smith	23y 8m	316.9
891	(-23)	Daniel Cox	17y 7m	300.6
892	(+66)	Matthew Illingworth	20y 10m	300.6
915		David Brewer	23y 2m	293.2
917		Edward Allinson	21y 2m	292.9
924	(-64)	David Rice	19y 3m	291
939	(+58)	Joshua Milton	18y 6m	287.5
944	(+75)	Daniel Evans	17y 11m	286.5
1016		Tom Rushby	21y 10m	259.8
1030	(+21)	Myles Blake	21y 2m	256.7
1037	(+159)	Marcus Willis	17y 6m	254.9	(311)
1071	(+175)	Dan Smethurst	17y 6m	247.3
1076	(+86)	Sean Thornley	18y 11m	245.7
1108	(-32)	Edward Seator	22y 0m	237.9
1161	(-30)	Richard Irwin	22y 9m	221.2
1211	(-123)	Tim Hewitt	18y 8m	208.6
1231		Jonathan Kinsella	24y 2m	203.1
1271	(-115)	Alexander Farquharson	23y 11m	190.6	(239.8)
1343	(+56)	Jagdev Sagoo	20y 6m	167.2	(178.1)
1374		Andrew Hamar	23y 8m	157.4	(257.6)
1398	(-37)	Kyle Brassington	20y 9m	149.2
1457	(-51)	Ross Connolly	25y 2m	129.9
1474		Ben Pritchard	20y 3m	124.2
1491		David Baxendine	24y 7m	118.3
1508		Neil Pauffley	18y 1m	113.7	(150.3)
1511		Jamie Feaver	21y 7m	113
1531	(-107)	George Coupland	18y 11m	105.6	(121.1)
1537	(-96)	Jamie Murray	22y 2m	104.6	(314.8)
1542		Chris Llewellyn	19y 9m	103.1	(139.8)
1556		Chris Priddle	19y 10m	97.3
1570		Philip Stephens	19y 1m	91.6	(273)
1584		Maniel Bains	19y 0m	85.8
1636	(-40)	Philip Barlow	19y 10m	70.2
1640		Tim Bradshaw	23y 2m	68.3
1647	(+1168)	Alistair Felton	18y 1m	65.8	(206.6)
1653	(+152)	Alexander Ward	18y 0m	65.2	(96.2)
1665		George Morgan	15y 2m	62.3	(243.7)
1676		Luke Campbell	23y 0m	58.1
1697		Jeffrey Zungunde	19y 2m	49.2	(74.7)
1702		Burnham Arlidge	20y 0m	47.3	(62.8)
1760	(+86)	Tim Patient	22y 7m	25.9	(166.7)
1773		Andrew Fitzpatrick	19y 0m	17.2
1863		Dan Cottier	24y 5m	-16.2
1912	(+234)	Nial Angus	17y 11m	-36.5	(53.3)
1919		Adam Barratclough	24y 1m	-40.8	(140.6)
1992		Tom Knights	18y 1m	-72.8	(16.9)
2019	(-89)	Orion Modebe	20y 0m	-86.6	(-80.2)
2028		Benjamin Levi	18y 4m	-90.3
2056	(-63)	Ned Boone	20y 10m	-100.6	(-20.4)
2057	(-52)	Ben Dunbar	18y 8m	-101.4	(-64.8)
2058		Amadeus Fulford-Jones	22y 10m	-101.8
...
3014	NE	Robert Dee	21y 3m	-2526.2

April News

The renaissance of Josh Goodall has begun. His Futures win in Exmouth and semifinal appearance in the Mexico City Challenger saw him rise 71 places in April to 351.

And with our young guns firing well in Bournemouth, we've seen their rankings rise impressively.
- Josh Milton up 58 to 939.
- Dan Evans up 75 to 944.
- Marcus Willis up 159 to 1037.
- Dan Smethurst up 175 to 1071.
- Sean Thornley up 86 to 1076.

Alistair Felton has entered the rankings at 1647 after his great performance beating the no.1 seed in qualifying.

And one and only Mr. Robert Dee has entered the rankings at 3014 (out of 3038) after his much celebrated win over Arzhang Derakhshani (3026).

On the downside, Andy Murray fell from 5th to 8th (Ancic is now 9th). And Skupski & Kasiri both had a stumbling month falling 60 odd places each.

As we've hit clay season, here's the ratings by surface.

Clay
1 Rafael Nadal
2 Roger Federer
3 Novak Djokovic
4 David Nalbandian
5 David Ferrer
6 Nikolay Davydenko
7 Nicolas Almagro
8 Lleyton Hewitt
9 Guillermo Canas
10 Fernando Gonzalez

63 Andy Murray
235 Alex Bogdanovic
330 Jamie Baker
349 Richard Bloomfield
490 Joshua Goodall

Grass
1 Roger Federer
2 Andy Roddick
3 Rafael Nadal
4 Lleyton Hewitt
5 Tomas Berdych
6 Mario Ancic
7 Richard Gasquet
8 Novak Djokovic
9 David Nalbandian
10 Tommy Haas

28 Andy Murray
121 Alex Bogdanovic
257 Joshua Goodall
260 Richard Bloomfield
334 Jamie Baker
347 Miles Kasiri

Hard
1 Roger Federer
2 Novak Djokovic
3 Andy Roddick
4 Rafael Nadal
5 Nikolay Davydenko
6 David Nalbandian
7 Andy Murray
8 James Blake
9 Robin Soderling
10 Mario Ancic

159 Jamie Baker
175 Alex Bogdanovic
266 Richard Bloomfield
359 Joshua Goodall

Full list on http://akhenatenratings.blogspot.com

-- Edited by Akhenaten at 13:27, 2008-05-02

DJ · County player

Fascinating, as always; thanks, Chris.