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Drew


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The ATP Race....
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So Andy is 48 pts behind....

The first 5 places are taken....and only Paris to go....

6th place...Ferrer.....425 but now OUT
7th place...Gonzo....368 still in...
8th place Haas.........329 but now OUT
9th place Robredo....328 but now OUT
10th place Blake.......327 but now OUT
11th place Gasguet...321 still in...
12th place Berdych...318 still in...
13th place Moya.......316 but now OUT
14th place Ljubicic....315 still in...
15th place Canas......295 but now OUT
16th place Chela.......284 but now OUT
17th place Youzhny...282 still in...

18th is Murray..........281 still in...

If Andy wins here he would get 50 pts.

Paris points are 100, 50, 45, 25....

Last year 8th place had 426 pts. If Andy could get to 450 pts then he would surely make it.

That means 341 pts if he won here. If he lost in the Paris final he would end up approx 390...not enough....he would have to win Paris.

So as much as I love the hype....cant see him doing it.

Rob C can you check this....?




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Drew


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Tim won Paris in 2003..beating Federer and Roddick en-route to the final...ah the glory days...so Andy Just do that !

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dougie


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I think that because its so close this year between say 6th and murray in 18th it means that the person in eigth will qualify with around 400 points even if that... for example Haas is 71 points from400 and hes only got paris to play. Because so many players above Andy who were in with a shot of qualifying have suffered early losses.. it definately improves andys chances.. especially as davydenko was beaten in ST Petersburg!

hope that makes sense lol

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Michael


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Draw bit of Maths for you. First you say if Andy could get to 450 points he would qualify, for a start thats not possible as winning Paris and St petersburg would only give him 426. Secondly if he wins St Petersburg he would be on 326 not 341.

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Drew


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Michael wrote:

Draw bit of Maths for you. First you say if Andy could get to 450 points he would qualify, for a start thats not possible as winning Paris and St petersburg would only give him 426. Secondly if he wins St Petersburg he would be on 326 not 341.


Michael please do not be so condescending....

If Andy could get 450 he would qualify...I didnt say he could get 450....also he would get 341 according to Rob C table on bt.net...currently on 1480 pts with 25 in the bag already...getting another 225 pts would give him 341 race pts...I did ask Rob to check it....the point of my post was to spark a discussion on Andys chances of making it...Dougies post above was very helpful...my maths is secondary...Rob C is the expert !



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Drew


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dougie wrote:

I think that because its so close this year between say 6th and murray in 18th it means that the person in eigth will qualify with around 400 points even if that... for example Haas is 71 points from400 and hes only got paris to play. Because so many players above Andy who were in with a shot of qualifying have suffered early losses.. it definately improves andys chances.. especially as davydenko was beaten in ST Petersburg!

hope that makes sense lol


Thanks Dougie...thats a help !



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VSandhi20


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But doesnt his mandatory points affect the ATP Race, because he did not play FO and Wimbledon.

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imoen


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I think that's the same as with the Entry ranking system, ie the mandatory points only come into effect to break a tiebreak.

I highly doubt Andy will make it to the Masters Cup. Though I would love him to prove me wrong. It's certainly added a touch more excitement to the end of the season though to see so many people in contention. If Andy wins this week then it'll be nail biting in Paris but I shalln't be disappointed if he doesn't make it, to even come this close after missing pratically half the season is astonding (and should worry the everyone for next year biggrin.gifbiggrin.gif)

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imoen


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Shamelessly 'borrowing' the table from the ATP site (here for those who wish to read the accompanying article

Pos./PlayerPointsBest 5th This Week
6th/D. Ferrer 42512Lost 1st Rd. Basel (+0)
7th/F. Gonzalez 3680Alive in QFs Basel (+12 = 380)
8th/T. Haas 3298Withdrew Lyon (+0)
9th/T. Robredo32818Lost 1st Rd. Lyon (+0)
10th/J. Blake 32720Lost 2nd Rd. Basel (+0)
11th/R. Gasquet 32110Lost 2nd Rd. Lyon (+0)
12th/T. Berdych 3188Alive in Basel QFs  (+4 = 322)
13th/C. Moya 31615not playing (+0)
14th/I. Ljubicic 31515Alive in Lyon QFs (+0)
15th/G. Canas 2951Lost 2nd Rd. Basel (+ 4 =299)
16th/J.I. Chela2848Lost 1st Rd. Basel (+0)
17th/M. Youzhny 28215Alive in St. Petersburg QFs (+0) 
18th/A. Murray 2815Alive in St. Petersburg QFs (+7 = 288)
19th/L. Hewitt 2734not playing (+0)
20th/J.C. Ferrero 2714not playing  (+0)
21st/J. Monaco 2699Lost in 2nd Rd. Lyon (+0)
22nd/M. Baghdatis26512Alive in Basel QFs (+0)
23rd/P-H Mathieu 2598Alive in Basel QFs (+4 = 263)
24th/D Nalbandian 2550Lost 1st Rd. Basel (+0)
25th/I Karlovic 2518Alive in Basel QFs (+4 = 255)

I'll update the table after all QFs have been played and will try and keep the table alive (ie regularly updated) until the final master's cup places have been taken.

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imoen


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So we want Gonzo to lose against Nieminen

Youzhny to lose to Kohlschreiber

Karlovic to BEAT Berdych

Baghdatis to lose to Mathieu

Andy to beat Tursunov

And Ljubicic to lose to Falla (miracles can happen).

This week, i make it that Andy can get as high as 11th in the race.

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Gonzo doing his best...a set and 5-3 down

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imoen


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Gonzo managed to lose in the end, 75 in the second set so that's one match going Andy's way, now for the other 5...

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seagull


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Well Youzhny is through. If Andy wins later I guess the S/F with Youzhny will remove one of them from the race.

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johnnylad


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PHM takes out Baggy!

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James Ward - Alex Ward - Kyle Edmund
johnnylad


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Falla lead Ljubo 7-5 4-4. Come on Alejandro!



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