Just think this time last year his rise had already been tremendous, but he was still ranked no. 44 and at that time as we contemplated his week to week ranking, Madeline was sticking her pins into folk such as Lopez, Horna and Christophe Rochus.
I too am now getting greedy for him. At the start of the year I saw his major aim to get into the top 8 and reach the Masters Finals but I do now see top 5 as totally realistic.
Ultimately his end of year ranking depends on his results during this year and to my mind he is probably a top 5 player now. OK, it is very early days in the race but he is currently no 3 and ultimately the race effectively becomes the ranking.
Yes he had what we considered a great June through to October last year. However, if you actually consider it, it was 2 Grand Slam last 16s, and in Master Series events a semi final, a quarter final, and 2 last 16s. I suggest that based on his current progression there is every reason to hope that he will not just defend these points but significantly improve on them. Another slght point is that some of the top players currently carry Master Finals points from last year, which will be dropped after the Paris Masters.
He also has more immediately the clay court season where last year he just won a total of 50 points in the French Open plus the 3 Master Series Events. Heck, now that he is evidently going to get a bye to the last 32 of Monte Carlo, one win there gives him 75 points and he'd already be up on last year. I have my doubts whether he will make great inroads in the clay court season but just a few wins, particularly at the French Open, will keep him on track before entering the second half of the season.
I am normally reasonably cautious and have constantly underestimated Andy's progression but I now do believe that a year end ranking within the top 5 is absolutely realistic.
When you consider that the gap between #3 and #10 is currently about 850 points, you can certainly say it's conceivable he can make top 5 by the end of the year.
850 points sounds a lot but if you consider he has already added over 750 points on in the first 3 months of this year (now on 2125 and started the year on 1370), then it doesn't sound so improbable.
Of course it does mean he has to keep this consistency up, make the most of the gains he can make on the clay and then the grass prior to Wimbledon - and then start to defend a chunk of the points he already has from the hardcourts (or hopefully improve on them!) - he also has a period following the US Open where there's room for further gain - he didn't do well in Thailand, Japan and could have done better in Madrid and Paris.
So there's plenty of scope to make top 5 and be well entrenched into a TMC spot - the key is to keep consistent and improve on last year's results.
The really big bucks are when it comes to points from getting past the 4th round at slams so, after 3 R4s in a row, we'll be hoping he can start making a QF or maybe a SF here or there.
along with blake not playing, Ljubicic and Robredo defend QF pts (125) and Fernando Gonzalez SF pts (225). SO, andy has a great chance of making the top 8 next week and also closing the gap on a few who are quite a way ahead of him in terms of pts.
Djokovic also has a very good chance of going top 5.