Davis Cup 2018 World Group Play-Off - Great Britain v Uzbekistan - 14-16 September

Helen40 · Grand Slam Champion

Davis Cup 2018 World Group Play-Off - Great Britain v Uzbekistan - 14-16 September

JonH · All-time great

Rules are you need to be in top 50 ranked nations or have a top 10 players, but not both.

It'll come down to economics and then some supporting fudge. Given France, USA, Spain and Croatia are qualified then the economic powerhouses not qualified yet are probably Germany, Japan, Gb,. One might argue Italy, Brazil, Russia, Australia are big tennis nations and biggish economies but the first 3 standout. On DC rankings, Argentina, Belgium and Gb are top 3 not qualified. On DC history Gb and Australia standout. On top 10 players, Switzerland, Serbia, Argentina, Germany, Austria. One could argue we have Andy Murray. Given Australia are hosting the new ATP event in January 2020, if it happens, not sure itf will be rewarding them with a wc. But there are maybe half a dozen countries in with a chance of a wc amd we are one of them.

JonH · All-time great

My instinct though is it will be countries who supported the new structure and we weren't one of those!

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

I'm not following this but presumably people would like us not to get the wildcard because then we would still get a home and away match?????

Or do people just want us to be in the final so a wildcard would be great?

JonH · All-time great

Coup Droit wrote:
I'm not following this but presumably people would like us not to get the wildcard because then we would still get a home and away match?????

Or do people just want us to be in the final so a wildcard would be great?

That is a good question, truth is for me I dont know!

If we take it seriously as a competition to win, then I think being into the finals is clearly a good thing. And to win it we would need to have Andy playing at his best I reckon, so maybe not playing in February and getting straight to the finals would work from that point of view. And Leon in his interviews and tweets is pushing our claims for the wild card and saying we should stand a chance so clearly would like it.

If we play in Feb there is presumably a 50-50 chance of getting away from home on clay and probably without Andy - it will be straight after Aussie Open and I cant see him playing DC straight after.

So my own view is if a WC was on the cards, lets take it - much as I dont like the new structure, we may as well go for it and try and win the thing, and we can only win it if we are in it!

seagull · Hall of fame

The Daily Fail reckons that a play-off home tie would take place in Manchester or Brighton. Don't know where they got that from. The only place in Brighton that could host it would be the Brighton Centre and been no tennis there for years.

steven · Tennis legend

JonH wrote:
Coup Droit wrote:
I'm not following this but presumably people would like us not to get the wildcard because then we would still get a home and away match?????

Or do people just want us to be in the final so a wildcard would be great?
That is a good question, truth is for me I dont know!
If we take it seriously as a competition to win, then I think being into the finals is clearly a good thing. And to win it we would need to have Andy playing at his best I reckon, so maybe not playing in February and getting straight to the finals would work from that point of view. And Leon in his interviews and tweets is pushing our claims for the wild card and saying we should stand a chance so clearly would like it.
If we play in Feb there is presumably a 50-50 chance of getting away from home on clay and probably without Andy - it will be straight after Aussie Open and I cant see him playing DC straight after.
So my own view is if a WC was on the cards, lets take it - much as I dont like the new structure, we may as well go for it and try and win the thing, and we can only win it if we are in it!

Much worse than 50-50. As far as I can tell, possible opponents in February are:

HOME v SUI (but the chances of them not being given a wild card must be close to zero, so we can probably forget that possibility)

BY LOT v BRA (played us in 1969 but that was a year before the cut-off), COL, BLR*, CHN* or DOM*

AWAY v AUS, BIH, CHI, HUN, IND, ISR, NED, RUS, UZB or POR*

* these are only possible opponents if nations from their zones get a wild card, I think (I've assumed that zones other than Europe will get one wild card at the most)

It's effectively payback for the run of 7 home ties we had in 2010-13 and the 3 home ties in 2015 (not that we'd have traded any of those for a home tie next Feb though!)

Presumably Leon already knew this and that's why he's 'campaigning' for a wild card.

indiana · Tennis legend

Presumably we would only accept a WC if satisfied that they were arrived at as a result of a "transparent and fair pricess"

JonH · All-time great

indiana wrote:
Presumably we would only accept a WC if satisfied that they were arrived at as a result of a "transparent and fair pricess"

Transparent and fair process?

Or transparent and fair prices

Maybe the misspelling was deliberately done!

indiana · Tennis legend

JonH wrote:
indiana wrote:
Presumably we would only accept a WC if satisfied that they were arrived at as a result of a "transparent and fair pricess"
Transparent and fair process?
Or transparent and fair prices
Maybe the misspelling was deliberately done!

I meant process or at least thought I did. Freudian slip? Best to quote Leon correctly though

JonH · All-time great

indiana wrote:
JonH wrote:
indiana wrote:
Presumably we would only accept a WC if satisfied that they were arrived at as a result of a "transparent and fair pricess"
Transparent and fair process?
Or transparent and fair prices
Maybe the misspelling was deliberately done!

I meant process or at least thought I did. Freudian slip? Best to quote Leon correctly though

its all about the money as Jessie J may have contributed to the conversation

steven · Tennis legend

Looks like they will have a couple of either/or slots in the draw and then wait until after the post-Group I relegation tie rankings in October to decide the last two unseeded European teams. Portugal, who would get in as things stand, have to play a relegation tie against South Africa.

It sounds as if Fed & Stan are quite unlikely to play even if SUI do get one of the wild cards, so maybe they'll offer them to a couple of the nations who aren't even in the qualifying round but are willing to pay the most money for the TV rights. We'll see within the next week or so, I guess.

Still, giving SUI a wild card and them sending a team led by Laaksonen and Hüsler (as they did for the play-offs at the weekend) would be quite fun!

flamingowings · All-time great

Good banter re: the mustaches
twitter.com/Jonny_OMara/status/1041714871790915585
twitter.com/jamie_murray/status/1041721368117694464
twitter.com/LeonSmith/status/1041721727624130562

Smudge226 · Strong Club Player

steven wrote:
Looks like they will have a couple of either/or slots in the draw and then wait until after the post-Group I relegation tie rankings in October to decide the last two unseeded European teams. Portugal, who would get in as things stand, have to play a relegation tie against South Africa.

It sounds as if Fed & Stan are quite unlikely to play even if SUI do get one of the wild cards, so maybe they'll offer them to a couple of the nations who aren't even in the qualifying round but are willing to pay the most money for the TV rights. We'll see within the next week or so, I guess.

Still, giving SUI a wild card and them sending a team led by Laaksonen and Hüsler (as they did for the play-offs at the weekend) would be quite fun!

If they award WC places to star nations based on market/cash, this isn't dissimilar to what happened in F1. Mosley sold the commercial rights to his mate Bernie for a song and 100years. Then this commercial entity squeezed as much money as it could from race circuits and nation states, raising its cash and market value. Bernie seeing the crest or perhaps the end of the line then sold it on to CVC at such a price that it really had to remain the 'cash cow' for investors. The sporting endeavour somewhat secondary in many ways as the the need to generate cash became paramount. Self consuming and quite vulgar in its pursuit of cash.

JonH · All-time great

At the risk of being a nerd, I went through 16 countries who are most likely to be in WC running and allocated them points (16 top ,1 bottom) on 4 criteria: Davis Cup official ranking as of today, Recent winner and where not won recent finalist and then for those left who hadnt won or been in a final equal points, top ranked singles player, economic power (using 2017 GDP ranking from IMF)

List in reverse order would be:

16. Brazil 18 pts (2,3,2, 11 - big economy)
15. China 20 pts (1,3,1,16 - v big economy)
14. Canada 24 pts (6,3,7,8 - middling across board)
13. Austria 25 pts (7,3,12,3 - thiem in top10)
12. Czech Rep 27 pts (8, 13,4,2 - recent DC winners)
11. India 28 pts (4,6,3,15 - V Big economy, DC history as well)
10. Russia 32 pts (3,11,6,12 - big economy and recent winners)
9. Japan 32 pts (5,3,10,14 - v big economy and Nishikori highly ranked)
8. Australia 34 pts (12,10,5,7 - DC Ranking and history)
7. Italy 37 pts (11,8,9,9 - DC Ranking and sort of ok across board)
6. Belgium 38 pts (15,7,11,5 - DC ranking and Goffin in top 20)

5. Serbia 41 pts (13,12,15,1 - Djoko, recent winners, high ranking - smallest economy of the 16 i selected)
4. Switzerland 43 pts (9,14,16,4 - Federer, recent winners, small economy - not per capital but overall)
3. Germany 45 pts (10,9,13,13 - large economy, Zverev)

2. Great Britain 47 pts (14,15,8,10 - high ranking, v. recent winners, largish economy, Murray??)

1. Argentina 52 pts (16,16,14,6 - v recent winners, top ranked in this list, Del Potro and others, economy ok size wise)...

So Argentina and GB to get the wild cards on fairest and most transparent of measures!!

And clearly that will be completely wrong!!! (Watch out for 2 from Germany, Japan, China and India!)