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Bob in Spain


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Kyle Edmund
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OK. So the battle for the Top 16 seedings at RG is on and today wasn't the best day for Kyle as several of those below him won. Kyle remains at provisional WR 17 in the live rankings and would have to win 2 more matches to have any chance of improving that. As for those who could catch him mathematically, they are

Fognini - Lost to Nadal. Out of the equation
Nishikori - Lost to Djokovic. Out of the equation
Kohlschreiber - Lost to Nishikori. Out of the equation
Shapovalov - Lost to Nadal. Out of the equation
Djokovic - Lost to Nadal. Out of the equation
Ramos - Lost to Djokovic. Out of the equation
Haase - Lost to Shapovalov so out of equation
Gojowczyk - Lost to Fognini. Out of equation
Paire - Out of equation after Kyle's win over Pouille

By some twist of fate, they are ALL in the top half of the draw with the exception of Paire who would have to win the title to catch Kyle.

So if my calculations are correct and Roger doesn't suddenly change his mind and get a WC into RG, if Rafa wins the title in Rome, Kyle will hit a new CH of 17 or better next week and will hence be seeded in the top 16.

If Kyle can beat Pouille today, Paire will be ruled out anyway, so Rafa would only have to reach the final.

Edit

Updated the situation

 



-- Edited by Bob in Spain on Saturday 19th of May 2018 03:22:51 PM

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Priesty


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Rafa could end up becoming one of our best friends this week! Come on Rafa we're relying on you! biggrin



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Oakland2002


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Although a top 16 slot at RG would be perfect, what is much more encouraging is the cool head with which Kyle has managed the last couple of weeks. The loss of his first ATP singles final must have been a blow but just seems to have been put straight to the back of the mind and have kick started an upsurge in form. The doubles win I feel may have been just the thing he needed, a bit of relaxed but quality practice with someone he knows well and a win. Hey and a win against Novak is what it is, a sign that times are a changing.



-- Edited by Oakland2002 on Thursday 17th of May 2018 05:59:47 AM

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wolf


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Tbh, I don't see being a 13-16 seed being an advantage. From being a 17-24 seed the chances of drawing Nadal before the quarter finals increase from 1 in 8 to 1 in 4.

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Bob in Spain


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And then there were three. Updated the original post with the current situation.


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flamingowings


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Depending on the seriousness of Delpo's injury, he may or may not be fit for RG. Would this change the seeding? I assume that all player below Delpo will be +1

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Bob in Spain


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flamingowings wrote:

Depending on the seriousness of Delpo's injury, he may or may not be fit for RG. Would this change the seeding? I assume that all player below Delpo will be +1

Yes.  Still a scenario that could see Kyle miss out on the 16th seed spot even if Delpo withdraws.  Firstly if Fognini beats Rafa that would relegate Kyle one place.  Then if Nishikori reaches the final or Djokovic wins the tournament, Kyle would drop another place.

But basically it is still a "come on Rafa".  Going to be an interesting atmosphere when he plays Fognini tomorrow.



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indiana


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If hoping for a top 16 RG seeding ( and wolf's point is noted re more chance of a tougher L16 match if Kyle gets there ) then I guess there are worse people you could have batting for you than Rafa in a clay Masters.



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flamingowings


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Anyone but Fognini to win (dislike him anyway) as for Nadal to win -fine. For Kei and Novak to win - ok, does Kyle out of the seeding but bigger picture nice to see them back and healthy.

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the addict


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wolf wrote:

Tbh, I don't see being a 13-16 seed being an advantage. From being a 17-24 seed the chances of drawing Nadal before the quarter finals increase from 1 in 8 to 1 in 4.

 Not sure I follow your reasoning. Aren't the odds the same? If I've followed the rulebook correctly ....

Two chances of being drawn to meet Rafa in the 4th round  out of 8 possibles as #17, from places 9 and 24 in the draw.

One chance out of 4 possibles as #16, from position 16 in the draw

No chance of meeting before the 4th round



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wolf


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13-16 seeds are drawn against 1-4 seeds in R4 so a 1 in 4 chance of meeting Rafa in R4. 17-24 seeds are drawn against 9-16 seeds in R3, so that makes it a 1 in 8 chance of going onto to meet Rafa in R4.

I'm sure I've got the maths right, but maybe the rules wrong?

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wolf


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I've looked at both the AO this year and the FO last year and the both looked to have done it the way I suggested above.

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indiana


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wolf wrote:

13-16 seeds are drawn against 1-4 seeds in R4 so a 1 in 4 chance of meeting Rafa in R4. 17-24 seeds are drawn against 9-16 seeds in R3, so that makes it a 1 in 8 chance of going onto to meet Rafa in R4.

I'm sure I've got the maths right, but maybe the rules wrong?

No, that's exactly how it has worked for as long as I can recall Slams with 32 seeds. Rules and maths look fine to me.

I guess as seed 13-16 as opposed to 17-24 there is in theory more chance of making the L16 in the first place though the rankings remain a bit all over the place so you can be lucky or unlucky.

But if then reaching the L16, for the chances of drawing say a Nadal or Zverev it's as you say.



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wolf


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So while being a 13-16 seed you recieve on paper a better R3 draw than 17-24 but it means you get a worse R4 draw. I think they need to make 9-16 the same instead of dividing it up into 9-12 and 13-16.

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Bob in Spain


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wolf wrote:

So while being a 13-16 seed you recieve on paper a better R3 draw than 17-24 but it means you get a worse R4 draw. I think they need to make 9-16 the same instead of dividing it up into 9-12 and 13-16.

I would agree with that completely.



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