What will Brexit mean for GB Tennis?

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

RE: What will Brexit mean for GB Tennis?

KK · Club Coach

Jaggy1876 wrote:
Today strikes me as a fairly depressing day in British Politics and our life in general. I started thinking about the impact it will have on foreign travel, flight and accomodation prices, inflation, interest rates, house prices, food costs etc. Then I thought about Sport. Probably one of our most vulnerable sports being Tennis. With it already being a fairly elitist Sport surely this will increase even more with more players being squeezed out particularly when travelling to Europe for ITFs as many players do. Portugal, Spain, Greece, Turkey and even further afield outwith Europe where many of our players travel will all become more difficult and expensive.
I don't trust this Tory government in the slightest to sort this out but what are everyone's thoughts on how it will effect Tennis? I can't see another Andy Murray coming any time soon. Bobs 25 in the top 500 may be cut to 10 in the next few years I feel with even more saturation in June for the fat cats of Queens and Wimbledon.

That's ironic. You sound just like David Cameron and George Osborne with their project fear, citing all the dreadful things which would happen immediately we voted to leave. They didn't!

KK · Club Coach

Etienne wrote:
Other than making it substantially less likely that British Tennis will acquire any more Konta's or Bedene's, I doubt the impact on tennis will be that big.

The rest of the country will obviously be poorer, economically, socially and culturally.

Obviously? We already have greater growth and more jobs than we did a year ago.

Was Jo Konta's previous nationality Australian? If so, I fail to see how being in the EU enabled her to settle here. And if she has always been Hungarian, then that didn't stop her settling in Australia which has never been in the EU.

paulisi · Tennis legend

As for the exchange rate- the latest predictions are that the rise in inflation will be met with increased interest rates, which will draw money into a sterling and strengthen the pound. All swings and roundabouts.

Some people just fear the worst.

Etienne · Club Coach

KK, we haven't actually left yet.

KK · Club Coach

Have another look at my first post and you will see I noted that dreadful things were predicted to happen immediately after a 'no' vote. The fact that they didn't has been a reason given by several people who voted 'yes' (from my hairdresser to a partner at Allen and Overy) as to why they have subsequently changed their mind.

Etienne · Club Coach

(I realise that we're largely going to be talking past each other, so this is pointless, but hey ho)

Given that nothing fundamentally changed after the 'no' vote in terms of trading agreements etc there were only likely to be dreadful consequences due to loss of confidence. Consumer confidence has remained high, which has kept the economy afloat (the growth is almost entirely in the South East and London, and largely made up of personal debt and house buying). The fall in the pound is the most accurate indicator of what is going to happen, but the full effect is not going to become clear until it emerges what sort of Brexit is negotiated. There are some positive signs coming that the government realise that they aren't going to be able to get a decent trading arrangement and the ECJ/immigration position that they want. I can only hope that they decide to prioritise the former over the latter.

KK · Club Coach

Etienne wrote:
(I realise that we're largely going to be talking past each other, so this is pointless, but hey ho)

Given that nothing fundamentally changed after the 'no' vote in terms of trading agreements etc there were only likely to be dreadful consequences due to loss of confidence. Consumer confidence has remained high, which has kept the economy afloat (the growth is almost entirely in the South East and London, and largely made up of personal debt and house buying). The fall in the pound is the most accurate indicator of what is going to happen, but the full effect is not going to become clear until it emerges what sort of Brexit is negotiated. There are some positive signs coming that the government realise that they aren't going to be able to get a decent trading arrangement and the ECJ/immigration position that they want. I can only hope that they decide to prioritise the former over the latter.

Clearly we are not going to agree, however, the word I took issue with was 'obviously'. There are plenty of people who believe leaving will be catastrophic, there are plenty of people who believe leaving will be good for us economically, socially and culturally, and there are plenty of experts (Mervyn King and Martin Lewis spring to mind) who think the economic effect will be neutral.

Etienne · Club Coach

I accept that 'obviously' may have been provocative. It seems obvious to me, but I appreciate that other opinions exist.

indiana · Tennis legend

Anyone that talks about "obvious" in a Brexit / Trump world is at best brave ... ( though I can relate to many of Etienne's concerns and that it is far far too early to be losing certain concerns )

Much to be very concerned about generally post Brexit, but what will turn out to be the main concerns or not the issues many thought still so uncertain, though all the indications are that the EC aren't going to give us an easy Brexit with very little picking and choosing.

Far too early too to say in general what was over doom laden with the Remain campaign leaders, probably counterproductively, spending far too much time on the potential big negatives, possibly / probably true or not, rather than some of the surely clear positives we have had from being in the EU, which I think many are realising / appreciating too late.

The wider world potential fall-out do concern me, though the young have so much more to potentially lose. I doubt particularly negative tennis effects. But I may be well off, little to me here is obvious.

And when things may not be perfect, but not bad at all comparatively to so many other places and far more uncertainty and unanswered questions in going a different way, the obvious thing for someone like myself who dislikes such uncertainty was to vote against Scottish independence and Brexit. Others may prefer plunging into the largely unknown where even the leaders of the change camps have barely thought through many of the questions, let alone have answers.

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

My personal feeling is that any UK negotiators sent into battle are on a hiding to nothing. I can't see a deal of any kind being struck and I think the UK will end up trading under WTO rules, whilst fighting a legal battle on how much they have to pay to leave. This will not be down necessarily to the inability of the UK to strike a deal, but simply on the inability of the 27 remaining EU countries to agree with each other. Each country has its own agenda (Spain - Gibraltar, as an example) and any country could veto the entire deal if they don't get what they want. I assume that any deal would need unanimous approval of the 27 ?

When no deal is struck, the UK press and public will no doubt blame the government. Had I been in Theresa May's shoes, I would have put together a cross party negotiating team in an effort to protect her own party from a public backlash at the end of two years when things turn sour.

As for the current situation with the SNP ..................... don't get me started.

paulisi · Tennis legend

It is not in the EU's interest to have no deal and go under WTO rules. I'm pretty sure i heard there were no WTO rules for air travel. There will be some deal, but not on the current terms.

indiana · Tennis legend

paulisi wrote:
It is not in the EU's interest to have no deal and go under WTO rules. I'm pretty sure i heard there were no WTO rules for air travel. There will be some deal, but not on the current terms.

So radically altering the remaining EU vs UK trading arrangements is so much more of an issue for the UK then for the EU, or more particularly individual EU countries. And ultimately EU countries will come to individual positions, and I can certainly see them being persuaded of the merits of making it very tough for the leaving UK or as Bob suggests, with their many individual interests, failing to come together in agreement on a new trading agreement.

There seems to me to have been a heck of a lot of optimism from Leavers about what 'good' bits are likely to be largely kept, after the to so many Leavers, but often very arguable, 'bad' bits re free people movement and employment plus various laws are ditched.

Etienne · Club Coach

It would be in the interest of the individual countries to come to a trading deal on better than WTO terms - though obviously it would be far worse for the UK than the EU if that happened (I think the obviously is unarguable there). But for the EU as a whole, it has to be a worse deal for the UK than the current position is. It is unsustainable for the EU if countries outside can trade on an equally favourable basis without the obligations. It would be an existential threat. The UK will get a poorer deal even in the unlikely scenario that it accepted freedom of movement.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

With the UK only accounting for about 10-15% of all EU imports, but the EU accounting for about 50% of UK exports, it is clear that the UK is in a difficult position. And, as above, the political pressures will be even greater than the economic ones.

But the world will keep on spinning ..... I guess.......