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Post Info TOPIC: What will Brexit mean for GB Tennis?


All-time great

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What will Brexit mean for GB Tennis?


I have no idea what will happen. But I am deeply concerned about the extent to which we in the UK keep speaking as if we hold the keys to the negotiations. As I heard a parliamentarian put it recently, at one level the Brexit vote involved 'taking back control.' At another, it involved giving the determining vote on our most integral trading relationships to 27 countries, all of whom have their own interests to protect or (as in the case of Spain re: Gibraltar) to advance. Recognising this isn't doom-mongering; it's hard-nosed common sense. Moreover, anyone who feels that the US, China and India will be out to drive bargains that don't seek first and foremost to further their own interests has never participated in any forum that was actually involved in trade negotiation.

Are there interesting opportunities? Well, yes, I think there may be - particularly with some of the Commonwealth countries. But that comes with the caveat that trade with most of those countries lacks many advantages conferred by trade with Europe - geographical proximity does still matter. Are there areas of concern? I'd suggest reading the most recent US trade documents: everyone will have different concerns, but I find the US's description of its trade policy and of foreign barriers to trade with the EU raises assorted issues. Or having a look at the Modi government's comments on trade and especially on what's called Mode 4 - movement of natural persons - which India tends to push very hard in its trade agreements, and which sets any negotiations with India on something of an interesting path from the outset: they will push for movement; the UK Government is trying to restrict migration. And on China, I think it's hard (witness the debates around nuclear reactors) to avoid security concerns.

None of this is to say things can't work out well. It's simply to plead that we recognise the realities outside our own borders as well as those within them, and have the kind of discussion that allows for complexity all around.

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If the EU wasn't a dysfunctional sinking ship, I would be very happy to stay with my European friends, free movement of people from poorer European countries is unsustainable I would say. The fall in the pound is a boon for exporters and foreign investment, if not for Brits who travel abroad and a little bit of inflation. Our exports total 230bill, whereas 290bill is imported, if the EU is sensible they will give us a good deal, not a free one, but a sensibly good one. I'm a Brit first and foremost, and a European after that, whereas Germans interestingly think of themselves as European in the first place. Noone can predict the future, but stock markets have boomed since Brexit, which is usually a good indicator, so I'm cautiously optimistic for the future.

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Tennis legend

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paulisi wrote:

As for the exchange rate- the latest predictions are that the rise in inflation will be met with increased interest rates, which will draw money into a sterling and strengthen the pound. All swings and roundabouts.

Some people just fear the worst.


 

Well, Wimbledon blame Brexit for having to shell out an extra 12.5% this year to offset the large fall in sterling since the referendum (of course, if the pound rallies, as you point out, maybe they can drop it again)

But, for the time being, British tennis is about £3.5 million poorer.



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Tennis legend

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Not tennis related but this is the only Brexit thread I could find.

Looks like the UK government is ready to confirm that Europeans living in the UK will be allowed to stay. If Europe reciprocates, it will be a weight off my mind.

www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40376083

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Though it will be nice to get past this point, I think it was always going to be so Bob. It made sense to check that the same offer would be there in return before confirmation.

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Shhh wrote:

Though it will be nice to get past this point, I think it was always going to be so Bob. It made sense to check that the same offer would be there in return before confirmation.


Even though it will be a great relief, there will still be a certain amount of nervousness. If this agreement is, for example, part of an overall package and then no deal is ever completed, will they still honour at least this aspect of the agreement.

So much as I am relieved now, I won't be totally relaxed until this is all over.



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Club Coach

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I can completely sympathise with the stress that there must be for UK citizens in the EU and EU citizens living in the UK, but sadly for the nearly 5m of you, May's offer is neither fair nor serious, and has been duly dismissed as utterly inadequate by organisations representing both groups of people as well as the EU.

Surprised as I am to be approvingly quoting George Osborne but :

"Once again, this morning, millions of families wake up among us not knowing whether they will be allowed to remain in the country where they have chosen to make their lives. There has to be a very strong reason of national interest even to contemplate causing such upset. There isnt.

It seems very unlikely Spain would kick out our expats on the Costa del Sol, or that France would depopulate the Dordogne. But even if they did, no one really believes that Britain would deport the three million European citizens who live and work here. Why not? Because it would be a massive act of self-harm. As Mrs May said in February: EU citizens living in the UK make a vital contribution to our economy and society and without them we would be poorer and our public services weaker.

Threatening to make yourself poorer and your NHS weaker isnt very credible. Nor does anyone believe that, even if she wanted to, Mrs May has the numbers to carry out her threat. She has barely persuaded her Conservative colleagues to back her plan. Last June, in the days immediately after the referendum, David Cameron wanted to reassure EU citizens they would be allowed to stay. All his Cabinet agreed with that unilateral offer, except his Home Secretary, Mrs May, who insisted on blocking it. A vote in the Commons earlier this year was only carried with a nod and a wink to Tory MPs behind the scenes that she didnt really mean it. Since then, the Government has lost its majority and it seems likely that an opposition motion to grant EU citizens the right to remain unilaterally could be carried."




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Club Coach

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Hopefully his conclusion will be more reassuring to you!

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Etienne wrote:

Other than making it substantially less likely that British Tennis will acquire any more Konta's or Bedene's, I doubt the impact on tennis will be that big.

The rest of the country will obviously be poorer, economically, socially and culturally.


 

Actually it is entirely likely that aquiring a Konta will be more likely as teh Commonwealth relationships become a bigger thing post-Brexit.



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Bob in Spain wrote:

My personal feeling is that any UK negotiators sent into battle are on a hiding to nothing. I can't see a deal of any kind being struck and I think the UK will end up trading under WTO rules, whilst fighting a legal battle on how much they have to pay to leave. This will not be down necessarily to the inability of the UK to strike a deal, but simply on the inability of the 27 remaining EU countries to agree with each other. Each country has its own agenda (Spain - Gibraltar, as an example) and any country could veto the entire deal if they don't get what they want. I assume that any deal would need unanimous approval of the 27 ?

When no deal is struck, the UK press and public will no doubt blame the government. Had I been in Theresa May's shoes, I would have put together a cross party negotiating team in an effort to protect her own party from a public backlash at the end of two years when things turn sour.

As for the current situation with the SNP ..................... don't get me started.


OK.  So today, I see Mrs May is now asking the other parties for "help and ideas" with regard to Brexit (and other matters).  Sorry but this now sounds like desperation and an admission of her inability to manage the situation.

I actually suggested this approach several months ago before official negotiations began.  If she had gone in with this strategy from the start, it could have been spun very differently.  "This is an issue too important for party politics and so we are putting together a cross party committee to get the best deal for the country".  Done at that stage, it would have been seen as putting the needs of the country before those of the Conservative Party.  Not only would the perception have been totally different, but it would also have meant that the blame for any failure could have been spread across all parties.

But to try that policy now is basically saying "Help. My plan isn't working. What should I do now?"  She is up a creek without a paddle politically and asking everyone else to paddle for her.  The only positive that may come from this politically from a Conservative perspective, is that it may force the Labour party to show its hand and consequently to show that the divisions in that party are as deep and divisive as those in her own party.

I believe more than ever now that the EU will make mincemeat of the UK bargaining position, not least because the UK doesn't seem to know what its own bargaining position is in the 1st place. It's going to be a bumpy ride.



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I know it won't happen, but I wish Cameron hadn't resigned, and would come back.

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